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12Z GFS run is interesting.

Almost the season for low topped supercells with little lightning so basically no change from the present

When Jason starts ringing that bell, you know there's model consistency. Fall is close.

Thanks. Is this a NWS product?

It’s barely over water after it hits Marco Island.

Damage!

Sick! Let's hope it's right lol

We pray for the 12z GFS!

88 here see if we can touch 90

I heard it’s the motion of the descension

didn't even try

There was 0.50” in S Portland.

October 31st. It seems like El Nino likes snow on Halloween here.

We’ll be onto 2001-2030 normals

Doesn't look very Nino esque to me. Strongest warm anamolies across southern tier.

I was wondering why no one here had started a thread.

Now that's a coast to coast TORCH

12z gfs is very entertaining

"Bagging" multiple peaks in a day is a big thing in the Northeast, where I hiked all 67 4000 footers in New England with my Dad before moving to CO in 2010. It's easy to climb 3-4 in a day or half a dozen in a weekend. All are Class 1 or 2 hikes, though there are some class 3 options if you try hard enough on a couple of peaks in NH and Maine. Funny thing is that weather and hiking have historically been two of my main interests, but "peakbagging" much less so since I moved to CO. (on the AT, my trail name was "Weatherman"). I've climbed two fourteeners, but there is so much more great hiking out here that does not involve the highest peaks that they've lost much of their appeal (plus, the competition for parking and real estate during 14er hikes is a big negative). But we digress. Some very thoughtful winter forecasts have emerged in the last week. What do people think? Personally, I'm skeptical that we'll get more than a "normal" amount of snow this year, because persistence always seems to win out. Though I'd gladly take "normal".

Is there any research or data on how hurricanes one year impact the ocean temperatures the next year? I feel like just because there may not be any hurricanes this year, that doesn't impact next year's ocean temps nearly as much as other ocean and atmospheric processes that take place over the winter.

Agree John... It's not something that can be easily incorporated into the winter forecast, but given climate trends and an increasing frequency of excessive precipitation events, it certainly deserves a bolded footnote!

A more negative NAO when winter progresses. Due to the stratosphere?

Try the raindrop app.