All Activity

From the Fish for you guys in the triangle. Greg Fishel post: Winter Storm Update 3:30pm Sat Jan 31 Sponsored by Blanton’s Air, Plumbing & Electric The following is an example of what you will get if you subscribe to my Patreon channel. It's much more in depth and I create videos, complete with graphics and statistics Monday through Friday, and over the weekend if conditions warrant. To check it out, go to https://patreon.com/fishweather. Now, here is what I just posted on my Patreon channel: I am not shocked about the lack of snow so far in the Triangle. I believe I stated several times that to me, the most favorable time for heavy hitting was late Saturday afternoon into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Now, if it looks like this at 9pm tonight, I'll be genuinely concerned! As the storm offshore begins to rapidly intensify, the flow surrounding it will strengthen as well, and we will get into what we call a pattern of strong warm advection. Now snow lovers, don't fret. in this case "warm" is a relative term! But the process of warm advection is a contributor to upward motion and I expect that to maximize here in the coming hours. Thus, I am not giving up on my 4-7" prediction. And remember, 4-7 means 4 to 7, not 7! Now I want to be brutally honest with you because I saw someone giving me credit I didn't entirely deserve. It is true that midweek, I called into question the outrageous snow totals the American model was spitting out, as much as 18" at one point. So I was right about that. But I did backtrack slightly when I conceded that 4-7" of snow was possible, especially with the unusually high solid to liquid ratios. So if we get less than 4", I will have to confess that I went too high. There are many models out there right now telling me I'm wrong. Time will tell. As I said earlier, I'm looking at processes, not a computer program spitting out numbers. I didn't need to suffer through 4 years of calculus at Penn State to read numbers to people. I just wish all the clickbaiters out there that showed the outrageous snow totals earlier in the week would have the guts to admit they overdid it. Not holding my breath on that one. So that's really about it. It's a wait and see game from now until 1-2am Sunday morning. I'm doing the best I can with what I know and my over 46 years of experience. I'm not perfect but I promise you if I'm wrong, it won't be due to lack of effort.

5.5” here in Granite Falls, NC

Yeah this looked much more promising than it did yesterday. Drops at least 2.5”. But I think all the Raleigh folks in here are surely already hurt cause this was literally a knife’s edge. .

Beautiful property!

Just FaceTimed with friend in Morehead city, it is near blizzard there

Also looks pretty low amplitude and negligible on forcing

The optimist in me says when i wole up this am the future radar barely got the snow line to right over me, now its up to RIC.

Where’s all this massive convection off the east coast that was being modeled for this storm to chase east? The radar shows nothing of the sort currently.

Awesome. How much did you get?

May be time to open the bottle .

https://twitter.com/TheJDubTweets/status/2017362122636738861?s=20

Someone down east is going to get 15+ .

It’s hitting subsidence from coastal. Coastal is cooking now. It isn’t back building. We’re cooked, blanked

Wunderground sensors have some -2F readings that way. Tinicums -11.9F feels suspect lol

Just over 4" in South Greensboro

I like your funny words magic man

7"+ in Tega Cay- hard to find an accurate place to measure bc the snow has been drifting....20F and moderate to occasionally heavy snow

I saw a photo of the mountains above Gatlinburg with 18 inches.

Biggest bust of all time, don’t know if I can storm chase anymore after this one!!

Thats nuts. I'm not trying be mean here, just observing. But it is insane that over 50 miles we can observe sun and no accums at your location and near white conditions and 7" of snow in Winston. Eyewall's drive back from GSO earlier must have been unbelievable.

For what it's worth, the most recent HRRR did prolong the end of the event another 1-3 hours for Wake... So if we begin by 7PM, we could have over 6 hours of precipitation.

Man your thread was about bullseye for me in NE GA. Our biggest snow since 2011 and multiple deformation bands right over MBY. I wish I could post videos in here because holy crap you would have thought it was up in Michigan or that area. This storm just sat over NE GA and bombed us. The western trend really helped us out all week and this was a true NE GA snowstorm! .

Might be elongated. 9-10” already at CLT

Tusculum area

The latest Euro Weeklies today show the workable pattern continuing in week 3 and 4 through the end of February.