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Don't get me started on 1-in-X year events! There is a fundamental misunderstanding of what they say. The reference points/periods for climo to calculate such a stat for any given location and wx parameters are fluid/relative, to say the least. But never let such details get in the way of hype or a narrative! Event return periods that extend beyond our period of record are curved to fit our period of record based on numerous statistical assumptions. This means just one extreme event can drastically alter return rates, giving a false sense of what actually has changed. If you divide whole world into county warning areas like what is done in the U.S., then you would have about 394,000 zones. So a 1-in-a 1000 yr flood would happen many, many times a year. It is not exactly 394x as the math would suggest due to non-linear factors, but it is still a lot, relatively speaking, and this is just for one type of wx event. How many are there out there to measure/quantify? And this is just choosing CWA for spatial, you can play games w/ numbers forever, slicing and dicing down location areal coverage to a single point for any wx parameter/measurement, and create any scenario as to frequency and trends to your hearts consent! This goes back to "how to lie (or exaggerate) w/ statistics" notion. The law of large numbers and averages results in many 1-in-X year events every day all over the world. It is similar to winning the lottery, odds are astronomically against, but many ppl each year win despite these odds b/c so many ppl play, and many repeatedly, so this *guarantees* there will be winners! It is a big planet and the atmosphere has endless combinations that in are high flux all the time, and it is going to split out big/record wx events at times w/ their frequencies waxing and waning over various time cycles naturally.

Pretty telling that for Dolphin the Google model has almost zero landfalling C3s, minimal c1-2s, and a majority of landfalling TSs.

The EPAC hurricane season off to a big start too with lots more to come

Maybe you missed the part of my post where I clearly said fall and winter not July? It’s going to be hilarious when the PDO flips positive by the end of this fall along with a massive displaced Aleutian Low spinning in the NPAC

So nothing ended up happening from a "Scott Spinner" POV. However, look at the radar at 1521z 7/29 attached. The HRRR fcst radar nailed this configuration w/ the flared cells E of the low center. One could easily think this was a TS landfall in SNE! Actually the fact it slowed and stalled near the MA/NY border and then drifted E reminded me of what TS Henri in 2021 (several spinners from that!). So why no spinners? I don't know but all the ingredients were there. However, as we know, just b/c all the ingredients are there does *not* guarantee the sensible wx results one would expect (or wants to in @CoastalWx case!) occurs. And this happens a *lot* for spinner setups! How many times do the SCP and SIGTOR look great on paper, and nothing happens beyond run-of-the mill svr cells, barely mesos? These parameters only account for some of what is going on the atmosphere, so you have to use w/ caution. And the line between no tor and tor, or a bunch of meh QLCS spin-ups and honkin' long-tracked, intense tors is rather narrow. *One* thing off and it can be "ruined!" So in hindsight, I'd make the same exact fcst for potential spinners for this past event. And really how often do you get a discrete, compact sfc low that is non-tropical "make landfall" over LI and CT in the warm season? Not that often! Yes, a summer Nor'easter in a sense but things are much different this time of year, owning to much higher PWATs and CAPE available superimposed on synoptic-scale lift! And the fact the low pressures in the summer and smaller and not as strong as their cool season counterparts actually favors more rain and higher risk, b/c the things tend to move slower and the synoptic forcing does not overwhelm the mesoscale, so you can get weenie RW++ stationary boundaries like we had in ern NY this past event!

Yes, acclimation can be in a very short period. I recall one big cold period in New England in the late 00s I think, and for several night in a row, when I went out to my car to go to work, it was 0 F. Then it "warmed" to 20 F the next night, and it felt really good! My avg yearly in Woburn MA for days w/ thunder is 23. It gets up around 30 in western parts of the region. Most I know of for a single location in New England is 42 days in ASH in 1988 (15 days in July alone - MQE also had 15 days that month for an all-time record!). @weatherwiz and @ineedsnow snow would faint in ecstasy if that happened to them! @CoastalWxwould still be like MEH!

Come to papa

9 tors in WV on 7/21 confirmed now. That is the second most in a day for the state on record, behind the 10 on 4/2/2024. Now 13 tors for 2026 in WV. They had 20 in 2024 for a yearly record. WV I always thought as a gap for tors since avg per year 1991-2010 was only 2 and a lot less than all the surrounding states. But I think the advent of mobile devices cameras and static cameras everywhere by the late 2000s, along w/ the dual-pol radar upgrade in the early 2010s has change things to reveal what is really going on and this has closed the gap as to the fact that much of WV is so rural.

4-day storm total for me was 1.01". Got 0.28" yesterday (Thursday), which was a bit of a surprise for me. One heavier shower in the AM and two rounds in the late afternoon. At least the yard will be happy for a while longer with such an elongated event.

Highest global ACE TCs 1) Ioke 2006 85.3 2) Freddy 2023 83.3 3) San Ciriaco 1899 73.6 4) John 1994 70.6 5) Ivan 2004 70.4 5) Paka 1997 70.2 6) Irma 2017 64.9 7) Isabel 2003 63.3 8) Rita 1972 62.9 9) Fico 1978 62.8 10) Fengshen 2002 61.2 Bavi's ACE from this year ACE is 51.4.

It was an amazing summer. Really looking forward to the extreme cold, snow that the winter of 2026-27 will bring! *

Dale City got 27 inches of snow from GB16 (The Great Blizzard of 2016). Back in those days I could still dig snow. I ended up digging lots of people out. Many of my neighbors asked me to, several of them remarked about how I wanted all the snow and one even asked for Jebman Standards lmao.

890 NOUS41 KLWX 302258 PNSLWX DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-016>018-501>510-VAZ025>031- 036>040-050-051-053>057-501>508-526-527-WVZ050>053-055-501>506- 311100- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 658 PM EDT Thu Jul 30 2026 ...NWS Damage Survey for 07/28/26 Tornado Event... .Overview...A line of severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front moved through the area during the evening of Tuesday, July 28th, 2026. Changing wind speed and direction with height, enhanced by a localized bay breeze along the Chesapeake Bay`s Western Shore, caused the storms to rotate, which resulted in at least three tornadoes in Anne Arundel County, Maryland. As additional information is received and reviewed, additional surveys or statements may be issued in the next few days. .Tornado #1: Riviera Beach Tornado... Rating: EF-0 Estimated Peak Wind: 85 mph Path Length /statute/: 1.1 miles Path Width /maximum/: 90 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: Jul 28, 2026 Start Time: 6:04 PM EDT Start Location: Riviera Beach / Anne Arundel County / MD Start Lat/Lon: 39.1736 / -76.5256 End Date: Jul 28, 2026 End Time: 6:08 PM EDT End Location: Sunset Beach / Anne Arundel County / MD End Lat/Lon: 39.1584 / -76.5225 Survey Summary: What likely began as a waterspout moving toward the south- southwest over the tidal Patapsco River moved onshore along Cox Creek in the Riviera Beach area of northeastern Anne Arundel County. A grill was flipped and numerous trees were snapped near the top, falling in a convergent manner near the intersection of Waterview Drive and Riverside Drive. The tornado continued toward the south, where a street sign was bent and large sections of siding were removed from a house near the intersection of Waterview Drive and Hilltop Road; numerous trees were downed in a convergent manner on this block, as well. Large tree limbs and tree tops were snapped near the intersection of West End Drive and Park Place, with additional large limbs twisted off and tops of trees sheared off near the intersection of West End Drive and Fieldstone Place. The tornado then crossed Stoney Creek near the bridge on MD-173 Fort Smallwood Road, before felling additional trees and a power pole prior to dissipating in the Sunset Beach area. The National Weather Service thanks trained spotters, media, and local emergency officials for their assistance in this survey. .Tornado #2: Lake Shore Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.7 miles Path Width /maximum/: 200 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: Jul 28, 2026 Start Time: 6:15 PM EDT Start Location: Grays Creek / Anne Arundel County / MD Start Lat/Lon: 39.0941 / -76.4699 End Date: Jul 28, 2026 End Time: 6:17 PM EDT End Location: Magothy River / Anne Arundel County / MD End Lat/Lon: 39.0848 / -76.4680 Survey Summary: A tornado descended around Patapsco Road where a few trees were uprooted and snapped. As the tornado tracked through New York Avenue and Magothy Road, the intensity of the wind increased with numerous trees uprooted along with a power pole and several tree trunks snapped. A boat was also lofted into the air, over a pier, and onto a jet ski. Damage was laying in different directions, indicative of rotation. A large tree also fell onto a house. Another home off Magothy Road had roof singles ripped off, along with a loss of some siding. The tornado tracked over Grays Creek and more trees were uprooted along Dobbins lane. Numerous trees were uprooted along Edgewater Road with damage facing different directions. A few tree trunks were snapped as well. The end of the damage path was observed just south of Edgewater Road along the Magothy River. A security camera here recorded the swirling winds passing through. The National Weather Service thanks the Anna Arundel County MD Office of Emergency Management for their assistance with this survey. .Tornado #3: Arnold/Cape Saint Claire Tornado... Rating: EF-1 Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph Path Length /statute/: 0.5 miles Path Width /maximum/: 75 yards Fatalities: 0 Injuries: 0 Start Date: Jul 28, 2026 Start Time: 6:17 PM EDT Start Location: Arnold / Anne Arundel / MD Start Lat/Lon: 39.0546 / -76.4648 End Date: Jul 28, 2026 End Time: 6:19 PM EDT End Location: Cape Saint Claire / Anne Arundel / MD End Lat/Lon: 39.0564 / -76.4592 Survey Summary: A tornado touched down in a wooded area north of Shore Acres Road in the 900 block, with trees snapped at the top. The tornado tracked east crossing Lake Drive in Cape Saint Claire. Significant tree damage was observed in a convergent direction. Many healthy hardwood trees up to a few feet in diameter were toppled. On Lake Drive, and a garage door of a house was completely blown in, with some insulation removed. The National Weather Service thanks the Anna Arundel County MD Office of Emergency Management for their assistance with this survey.

Driving home from The Cheesecake Factory tonight (National Cheesecake Day) it was absolutely POURING in Edison and South Plainfield, but I got home to see nothing happened here in Piscataway. We got just barely missed by a lot of downpours here the last few days.

59/55 at deep creek, wonderful!

Yea this one will be fascinating to watch unfold. The atmospheric pattern still resembles that of a La Nina/ -PDO mode in the northern hemisphere for sure. Even with the tropical activity in the WPAC this year (which is great to see) we haven't seen many recurving typhoons sinlaku was the closest to still being a typhoon while recurving. Most of the storms have still been tracking west which doesn't bode well for the PDO to flip, maybe we see that change as we get into fall.

Seasons in seasons. What I love about NE is we have four distinct seasons. It’s a great reminder that time always marches on, and we should enjoy what we have. The days are getting shorter and soon climo will be such that summer fades to fall, but that also means fall foliage, peak tropical, and different wx.

Don't really know how to look this up but I have to think with another 9-10 days before a potential landfall, this could be one of the highest ACE producing storms on record.