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The overnight HREF:

that's awful, every 4-6 weeks? you and your neighbors must all be so pissed at the POCO. Is the issue mostly related to overhead wires and mature trees, or is it due to older under ground infrastructure?

Picked up an additional 0.12” overnight a some point which brings us up over 9” up to 9.02” MTD

HRRR was a solid line moving through

Back to "Bad Gateway" again when logging on.

Congrats fokes south and east today. Looks like 2-3" of rain and lots of storms. Models looks pretty unenthusiastic for central Maryland. Probably just the normal spots like Fredrick and Glen Burnie see action lol

Yikes. Cheetah and SkiMarge have entered the chat. Definitely need the rain here. Tired of watering my bean pole and tomatoes daily.

Low of 70. Could be an interesting day.

Yeah, I think we're just about done as the last cell has moved northeast. I didn't think we'd pick up close to an inch in the forecasted first round. Ended up with 0.92" in my backyard. Locations to my immediate north (Hometown, Lake Hauto) are showing between 1.25" and 1.50".

Zilch here.

Certainly, can't rule out, you're seeing more storms this morning but either way, it looks like you'll see some sun.

Repeating what I said above garbage in, garbage out. Your analysis and AI's conclusion is faulty. You aren't telling AI that the Chesco COOPs are included in the SE PA climate division. You can't conclude that Chester County is the same as the non-Chesco stations if you include Chester County with the other stations. Second the regression slopes depend on the end-date. You need to include enough years before and after the moves for the station moves to be fully reflected in the regression. For the period 1941-1975 I get a much bigger difference in slopes -.69 for Chesco and only -.32 for the Division. Excluding Chester County from the Division would lower the Division slope further. Finally AI already has a Pvalue of 0.057, i.e, there is a 94% chance that Chesco is different using your faulty comparisons. Correct the errors and the Pvalue will shrink considerably. However I don't need stats, the chart clearly shows that Chesco COOPS cool vs the SEPA Climate Div.

Temp down to 54F this am; looks like storms already firing in PA/NJ border. Congrats W CT?

. What's your experiencing should lift north with the warm front , it looks like we're gonna bake off nicely in the warm sector today.

Outside with my second coffee and smoke, and she's flashing and booming a bit now. And as I type this the rain is getting heavy again. These morning storms seem to be training right up through Schuylkill County.

I saw some lighting and heard some thunder from a distance but no rain here . It started as a little blip near Carlisle and became a nice little cluster relatively quickly. Very fast NE motion on those storms already with another weak echo, blazing, due west across the mason dixon. It already seems like there's going to be some ugly stuff around today.

Yeah. No thunder, but heavy rain. Woke me up at 4:30AM and already got 0.36"

Right now lol.

As of 121am Texas time July 21, Bertha is disorganized. Most of the precip is south of the center of circulation. This puppy needs to be monitored. With any luck she will reach hurricane status and continue lumbering slowly westward toward Texas where I hope she will move in and take up a happy productive residence swirling around for a week about 40-50 miles southwest of Buda. We are parched and need more rain. I'd love it if Bertha would please spin me up some highly efficient tropical rainbands then train them right over the Austin/Buda Corridor for days on end. I'd love to see the Plum Creek rise right over Rt 1626 and 967. I'd walk down there with my old snow ruler and take water level readings, while blasting the latest Gen Z tracks on my headphones! Another thing I crave for is to get so much heavy efficient tropical rain, that all the water storage facilities scattered all over Buda and Kyle would get filled right to the brim, even overflowing and running down the streets! I'd definitely enjoy a truly EPIC jebwalk!

Looking at another MCS rolling in during the next few hours, ugh!!! Every single storm is between 11pm and 8am (nearly all from 12am-3am) this year, just why? I haven't hit the pillow yet and soon my block will be off it again.

I'm not sure there will be much left to track after about 60-72 hr as the entire circulation gets sheared apart. HAFS-A/B do have any coherent sfc center by 72 hr. You can see the deformation pulling it apart well at 850, 700, and 500 on the ECMWF RH/streamline fields. NHC showing a trackable center from their 03z advisory at 96 and 120 hr seems optimistic IMHO.

0Z UKMET: significantly stronger than last few runs and not as far N track allowing it to avoid LA for the most part and actually landfall just S of Galveston as TS, where Joe Bastardi said he may be hanging out: GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 21.07.2026 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.5N 86.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL022026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 21.07.2026 0 28.5N 86.2W 1005 32 1200UTC 21.07.2026 12 28.7N 86.4W 1001 42 0000UTC 22.07.2026 24 29.3N 87.1W 1001 37 1200UTC 22.07.2026 36 29.4N 87.6W 1002 37 0000UTC 23.07.2026 48 28.9N 89.0W 1002 42 1200UTC 23.07.2026 60 29.0N 90.3W 1004 37 0000UTC 24.07.2026 72 28.5N 92.6W 1000 40 1200UTC 24.07.2026 84 29.1N 94.9W 1006 38 0000UTC 25.07.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING