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Maybe after 12z models on Wednesday

Looks like our nice IVT stuff is ending. Just some flurries out there now. 6.2 will do it I think for the storm total.

12/5/25: 1.5” 12/14/25: 2.25” 1/17/26: T 1/18/26: .25” Total: 4.0”

Great... now that poor child is set up for an even bigger letdown.

Probably add another couple of tenths since that measurement too

Bills fired McDermott

It snowed here until roughly 5am. Total snowfall is 3" mostly on non pavement.

The thread, as well as the starter, makes or breaks the storm. We all know that.

I have noticed some mets getting on board for upper east tn, fairly unusual this far out.

Totally agree.

I get that, but when it gets close, it makes it impossible to read. Like @buckeyefan1 said, it's been a minute since we've needed one of these, but with this much model agreement and so much winter wx coverage of multiple SE states, its probably needed.

The thought of someone getting NAM'ed starting tomorrow night makes it start to feel even more real.

So for The4seasins…are we giving him total from sat and Sunday? Or does he want distinct amounts from both days?

Definitely some compaction/melt occurring early AM (around 2am temp rose to 33°) I was out and heard a lot of dripping

It's surprisingly consistent for an operational model. And yeah, it's shifting north, but it sure as hell is better than the GFS.

its not going to take much liquid equivalent over the weekend to create a SECS or MECS because temps in the single digits and or teens during the precip will cause very high snowfall ratios

PDII was forecast to be a hit by five days out. Anyway, the MJO will be moving into phase 7 and the NAO will be somewhat negative. I don’t see any blocking. I’d like to see the the cold air mass dig a little deeper and we’d be in business

What’s the obsession with storm threads? The grown adults can handle being focused on a storm during a real window. Mods will be tightening early if this looks legit.

The UKie is nice but it's such a terrible model.

Yeah idk if this is unwavering. One of the more concerning things I’ve seen, lol. But still got breathing room.

Bright blue skies breaking out here already.

It has a cold bias at range but in this case the GFS is pretty similar with temps leading in. Both in the teens.

I mean yes, of course the pattern looks to be very cold. But all these years of many many many 35 degree rainstorms has taught me to be wary until we are very close.

About 2.5 here in mattapoisett. A lot mire on the trees.

Absolutely not. Not under were inside HR 60.