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East of the Windward Islands (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms have increased and are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. This system could become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves quickly westward at about 20 to 25 mph, passing through the Windward and Leeward Islands late on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean on Tuesday, where conditions are expected to become less favorable for additional development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

NOAA uses a 20th century (1901-2000) baseline for assessing anomalies for purposes of climate analysis. This is how NYC's summers look using the 20th century baseline: For purposes of "normals," the latest baseline period is 1991-2020. Here's how NYC's summers look using that baseline: The last summer cooler than the NOAA's long-term 20th century baseline was summer 2009. The last summer cooler than the 1991-2020 baseline was summer 2023. Summer 2025 will wind up warmer than both baselines.

With the anomalous trough and major fronts already impacting the east coast I would say the odds of an east coast impact from something other than home brew are likely decreasing. We’re in an October pattern in August

Watch another low steal Gabrielle

Only 80 at my house. Sorry. anyway, beautiful on the Mountain in Ashburnham

Glad we don't live there.

Ain't hot if you don't have the dews. Gorgeous evening!

Beautiful afternoon/evening today. Breezy, temp.of 78. Doesn't get much better than this in August.

Picked up .08" yesterday evening from showers. Everything is staying west so far today.

above normal temps and below normal snow. that's my official forecast for every winter for the rest of our lives

I'm 66, and still waiting...

Their goal, and that of other social media influencers, has nothing to do with honest discussion. It's solely about obfuscation. That's why they can only succeed in political circles, not scientific ones. Indeed, many of these influencers are viewed dismally in scientific circles. Their efforts are shoddy, filled with errors, and miss even basic points. I sometimes bring up some of them here, so that people are aware of what's going on. One example, not posted here, but on X: The basic error here that Martz (a social media influencer who is active in denying anthropogenic climate change and its impacts) makes is that he does not understand that probability measures the chance of an event occurring/not occurring. It does not directly measure model accuracy. Thus, he essentially endorses a post that asserts that a 5% probability of an event's occurrence means that he models were "wrong 95% of the time." This is a fundamental misunderstanding of what statistics measure and what they do not measure. Indeed, that fundamental error guides this inability to comprehend attribution science and its merit in explaining in statistical terms how much more likely and/or more intense an event was in the contemporary warmer climate. Unfortunately, many who are exposed to such content do not have the backgrounds or understanding to recognize that they are being misled.

Back is decidedly broken. Sure we’ll get some heat but I’m sensing an early autumn. Rubber band snaps back warm in December.

I went to look up about it after it stopped and the internet was out for hours. Electricity was on but the internet was down.

82 today. Beautiful day down at the marina

High temperatures will top out mainly in the lower 80s tomorrow and Monday before another push of cooler air moves in. Following the arrival of the cool air, high temperatures will top out mainly in the upper 70s and lows will fall to lower 60s in New York City through at least Friday. Outside the City, lows in the 50s will be widespread. There will be higher-than-climatological risk of at least one period in September with highs in the upper 80s or perhaps 90s. Summers similar to the current one have had September highs of 90 or above about 10 percentage points above that for all other years. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn. The SOI was +15.90 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.352 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.2° (1.9° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.0° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

not going to try and wishcast 99L like the last storm.. but there are some interesting ICON members and it did pretty good with Erin..

WTTTE

84-88 AWT

Thanks for your replies! I’m all for open discussion of alternative ideas and that’s why I posted this and others from him. If the alternative idea appears to be plausible, it would probably be supported to an extent. OTOH, if not, it would likely be refuted. Also, I feel it’s important for others to be aware of what’s being spread to so many people (Weather Bell subs in this case) whether plausible or not. Thus, I expect to continue posting Dr. V stuff. In this case, Dr. V’s idea has been refuted several times here. That helps others like myself to be more knowledgeable about the doubtfulness of the plausibility of his idea. Not only that, I learned thanks to bdgwx about OMICS and its fraud. Today, JB posted this as a followup: I'm now going to incorporate this into my (forever) paper which is now in its second draft. The finished product will then be submitted to The International Journal of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resources, a peer-reviewed journal that has accepted other papers I've written in the past (in fact, they solicit me on a regular basis for contributions). That paper will then get passed on to Tom Nelson, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin, and my Congressional Representative, Mike Haridopolis. That will hopefully get the geothermal hypothesis onto a higher plane. The bolded adds even more to my doubts about Dr. V. Why? I hate to bring politics into this, but Zeldin and Haridopolis are far righties, which imho has been the source of a lot of misinfo of all kinds, including CC. I’m saying that as a moderate independent as I’m not a liberal or a Democrat. Also, Thomas Nelson is the producer of “Climate The Movie: The Cold Truth”, which tries to minimize the significance of AGW. @donsutherland1

I was teaching a class and the tables/desks started shifting back and forth. Everyone immediately knew what was going on. Then Irene hit, which was pretty bad here. A big Oak came down and just barely scraped the back of the house. Was lucky. Got plenty of firewood from that. That was a pretty interesting week lol.

And yet we still couldn't make it happen. The odds are so stacked against snow now it's kinda insane.

89/50 for only a +1 at CON today. Yore August keeps on rolling.

There were warm winters before 2011-12, but they were fewer and further between. Like if one happened, the pendulum would have almost certainly swung the other way the following year. But after 11-12, it's been warm winter after warm winter after warm winter (with the obvious exceptions of 13-14 and 14-15). I wouldn't say 21-22 was decently cold/seasonable. Only one month was (January), but the rest of that winter was well above average temperature. 24-25 was for the first time since at least 17-18 (and you could argue 14-15) colder than average more often than not.