All Activity

Looks like Friday into Saturday will be our next chance for 90° heat at the usual warm spots. Could be some scattered convection with the cold front. But should become cooler and drier into next week as Canadian high pressure dominates again.

Models look stormy up here for Thursday. WBAL futurecast had a robust looking storm moving thru after 4pm.

First two consecutive years with a quiet Labor Day weekend following a Cat 5 hurricane.

54 when I left the house, 50 through the rurals with some nice valley fog.

Lucky for you I have an anomaly map I saved from last year around this time. Im going to have to delete some images from earlier on this thread and last thread because im running out of space again. 400mb is a killer

I saw that Lytton reached 40.0C. A large number of sites in BC exceeded 35C. Today, Lytton could surpass 40C.

6z 3k NAM read your mind

Yes, should have phrased it different, “entrenched”, but definitely a difference from last year. I also noticed the change in storm track, by this time last year, the warm pool/marine heat wave around Japan was getting beat to hell with storm after storm, this year, not so much. It is going to take a lot to get any meaningful change out that way, the +11F SSTs aside, the subsurface is just as anomalous

Never said it was going to warm back up only said the pattern is still well entrenched, but we are continuing to see changes occur (slowly). The storm track was much further north last year than this year. Here is the first 25 days of August last year and this year. (Can't get to the end of the month because it has not updated) Here is August and September last year storm track significantly further north and toward the Bering sea with a strong low.

Last year there was a parade of storms, tropical and extratropical, this year, nothing. Like you said, that’s going to warm right back up quickly

Yes it was crazy hot here and will be for several more days. Also in eastern WA, Spokane had a record high of 99F (previous 97F 1988) and on the regional roundup it was 101 at CDA and 100 at Colville WA which is just south of my location. A lot of small fires in that area too, nothing really close to my location. Quite a lot of forest fire smoke developing across Alberta now from fires in the Rockies and north central BC. Some of that smoke could appear in parts of the central U.S. soon.

Very interesting video. I liked they way he went through his reasoning. Now we wait...

Nice little storm took place in the north Pacific this past week. Wiped a out some of the warmer waters, but still very much entrenched though. Need quite a few more larger systems to really knock it out. The most noticeable change from last year to this year is the cool pool is not set up in the Bering sea or gulf of Alaska.

0Z UKMET: This run is back to a TD. Once formed, it remains the same strength. It is significantly further S than the prior run with a TD (24 hrs ago). At 168, it’s on a trajectory toward the Leewards only 150 miles away: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 13.3N 51.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.09.2025 132 13.3N 51.7W 1011 27 0000UTC 09.09.2025 144 14.1N 54.6W 1010 29 1200UTC 09.09.2025 156 15.0N 57.4W 1011 31 0000UTC 10.09.2025 168 16.0N 59.5W 1010 31

Yes i agree... I know it was a above normal year for most places in the Mid Atlantic up until about 5 weeks ago but the moisture has completely shut off since then ... Even most of the wettest areas probably barely hit 2 inches since ... Most areas likely between 0.25 - 1.50...

Yawn. That is all.

The big difference is in 1+2. Last year was never going to behave like a la nina with that east-based el nino.

Antilles notwithstanding, this looks like fish food to me.

I should probably know better, but I'm hopeful that a number of us will see a couple of tenths Thursday. It won't be a widespread soaker, and there will be some big losers, but the pre-frontal trough should initiate convection with some degree of organization Thursday afternoon.

My air conditioner hasn't ran for 9 straight days to close August and begin September. That's unheard of. I just leave the windows open at night and the house has dropped down into the mid-60s. The highest it's gotten inside in that time frame is 73. Looks like I will be able to keep the a/c off the rest of the week as well, as long as we can keep getting into the 50s at night.

18z euro ensembles are quite interesting

When I mean dry sucks I don't mean I want 75 degree dewpoints and thunderstorms. I want cool, all day light to moderate rain events mixed in. If it's too dry it ruins the fall color.

Pretty smoky here in Vernon all of a sudden. Must be the fire in W Milford on Clinton Road that is new. Hope we don’t have a repeat of last fall. .

18z Euro: significantly weaker, slower, and further south than 12z. Maybe a trend?