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CEF.....45 to 55 -1F for met winter

Its been one of the most normal falls I can remember in ages. If we get some snow and cold in December at some point we will be fine. I think its gonna be a more normal winter. I'm so glad we really haven't had the screaming southeastern.

My second favorite Depeche Mode song

Down to 20F so far in E CT, Yawgoo Valley making snow?

One thing that western jog right before landfall seems to have done is to have drug the eyewall and RMW over a larger area of coastline because though the eye itself remained just offshore longer, the eyewall was already onshore. For a system with a tight inner core like Melissa had, there is a much larger area of extreme-unprecedented wind damage than would otherwise be expected given the small RMW at the time of landfall

Mammoth is getting hit by even more snow - this was definitely NOT in the forecast tonight! They have 3-4 inches MORE fresh snow since 6pm and MORE on the way overnight! They just opened today! Even the Village level got hit! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/the-village Woolly Lot needs a Plow!!!! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/woolly-cam That snow is blowing in the Lights at the Main Lodge! https://www.mammothmountain.com/on-the-mountain/mammoth-webcam/main-lodge

Ensembles suggest keeping expectations in check through begging of December.

Steady at 28. Things continue to die

28.9⁰ here now. It's been below freezing since 7pm, but flatlined at 29⁰ for the past 2 hours. Stations just to my south are running 26 - 27⁰ and stations just to my north are running 31 - 34 (with a few higher). Just north of that is a lot of relatively warm water.

Bullseye! https://x.com/wfaaweather/status/1991697682084122874?t=kJ5x6yrdEHdWtt8gWCUCJw&s=19 This was also the wettest November day on record for DFW with 3.92" of rain today.

lol caps are like - oh wait, maybe we should score more goals

I think with terrible models have been, no one should get excited in terms of snow until there is model consensus for snow in their backyard within the 2-3 day window.

Do not submit your accumulations with the inches (") symbol. It converts the entry from a number to plain text in the Google Sheet. This then breaks the "sum" formula adding up the totals.

Of course . It has been rough.

Last Feb there was a storm that looked like a KU for the I95 5 days out, then it got suppressed to coastal virginia/NC lol. You're dead on with the "cutter or suppressed" track stuff, even though people here give you shit for it. It never works for philly to nyc anymore.

You nailed it! Fairfield Inn & Suites by Marriott Somerset.

It's premature to panic, but I feel the angst. We're coming up on 5 years since the last good snow event in SENY through NNJ. I can't speak for other areas, but that's a rough stretch. And I can understand why some people would feel antsy about a recurrent shit winter pattern.

No, there is nothing to suggest it even goes above average as we move into January.

This is impressive to see though models are showing the potential destruction of the Nina like atmosphere coming up as we go into December. This really should kick into effect a downwelling kelvin wave from the warm pool sitting around 160E below the surface.

Yes there has been nothing to suggest more than a displacement event taking place. The warming overall is very muted and while the semi-permanent ridging is impressive leading to a much weakened zonal flow there is more to it than just a weakened zonal flow. The SPV is still very much intact just getting knocked around for now. This certainly feels like there is potential for a 2-3 week period of wintry like effects as we get to mid December and on due to this.

Yes. 26° Lawns have frost

I’m anticipating a busy panic room this year.

Very much agreed a quick disruption followed by a very strong PV when it flips back

Oof, not good to see.