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Actually, a snowy Thanksgiving to New Years would be a classic weak Nina in the Great Lakes (not sure about the east coast). The issue in recent years has been Ninas have had a tendency to flip flop Dec & Feb.

Hey! What's this liquid stuff falling from the sky? 64.2/59.0 and things are almost wet now, MAYBE we get a few hundredths??

Eric Webb posted some preliminary thoughts. Tl;dr is more canonical Nina look than last winter but with some +TNH flavor. May average AN in the SE (where he focuses on) but with some cold shots and snow.

The old record was 40.0C, which was most recently tied at Lytton on September 2 (third such occurrence on record in Canada).

Ugh, just in time for the start of fall sports. Lets keep the rain confined to the weekdays please

mate what are your thoughts now ensembles have been showing a gulf threat every bloody day

79 and sunny at 11:15. Southerlies are pumping in more humid air now quickly.

The indices ( at least from CPC ) still bear some modest signal, but the operational runs aren't really getting any memos. They seem to favor a bounce back flat ridge and/or relaxation back to a base-line modest above normal heights in the east ( continent) after this weeks trough anomaly lifts out early next week. It's after that ... late next week and beyond that is a period of any eventual interest. It's most likely just way too early. It may be worth it to bide time and see if or when a CPC's strong +PNA, with a shallow -NAO beginning to manifest in the operational cinemas. Right now, from this far out, the GFS's depictions are likely just coincident and not related. Because the stronger +d(PNA) over at Climate Prediction Center is a bit in conflict with these longer range operational handling.

QBO actually works well with ENSO state for 10mb. El Nino/-QBO gives about 75% odds for Winter Stratosphere warmings, and La Nina/+QBO gives about 75% for Winter cold Stratosphere. Last year was Weak La Nina per RONI and with +QBO, it was one of the coldest 10mb's on record Nov-Feb. 2 years ago in -QBO/Strong El Nino we had 4 separate Stratosphere warmings. ENSO and the QBO are at odds this Winter. In an unconnected ENSO state it runs about 55-60% warm 10mb for -QBO and 55-60% cold for +QBO. Remember, the QBO is a Stratosphere index, What it means at the surface depends on a lot of in between factors. I think we are pretty split this Winter on -NAO or +NAO indicators, with this recent 6-7 month consecutive +AO/+NAO usually rolling forward to the Winter for the same thing at about 0.2 correlation or 60% probability. Cold H5 during the Summer since the Arctic ice melt low in 2012 has usually put a following Winter ridge at 90N. I think we can possibly be looking at some -AO this Winter, but further south in the N. Atlantic it may be +NAO. The Stratosphere should be warm some of the time with strong -QBO in place, but that occurrence has time lag to -AO events at +15-45 days (depending when in the Winter the Stratosphere warming happens). It's actually really hard to say what XQBO will do to the pattern, since it occurs >30,000ft in the atmosphere. There is some Asia Mountain Torque possibility, which sometimes leads to +PNA, but the correlation on that is actually really weak.

.20 in a downpour this morning. Hope to get a little more with the front this afternoon.

Yes, its the GFS, and far out, but there's a major one hitting the Carolinas on Sept 18th/19th. I am sure it will change many times, but something to keep an eye on.

82 and humid already at 11 am. Think we blow past the forecast high of 86. Hit 88 yesterday, with a forecast high of 84. Its definitely been a bit cooler in my area, but nothing like what it was supposed to be. I am hopeful the next cool blast Monday materializes for us.

If Nino 1+2 does not return to an el nino state, then this winter will have a more la nina feel to it. Last year felt like a tug-of-war between the la nina in 3.4 and the el nino in 1+2. It certainly did not behave like a la nina.

Invest 91L just designated for Atlantic wave.

We have Invest 91L in the eastern Atlantic.

RONI-ONI differences have been slowly dropping since late in 2024 and especially since FMA: 2024: JJA -0.54 JAS -0.52 ASO -0.54 SON -0.55 OND -0.55 NDJ -0.54 DJF -0.53 2025: JFM -0.51 FMA -0.49 MAM -0.43 AMJ -0.38 MJJ -0.32 JJA -0.29

Let’s goooo 12z 3k NAM!

Are we jumping the gun on the ENSO state being La Niña? No

Heat Island kept MSP at a relatively mild 46 overnight.

Curious what the previous record was

If we get one it’ll be weak. There will be other factors at play that’ll determine what kind of winter we get.

Stein coming at us in all directions.. crushing everything as he moves in

It looks like the ONI and RONI are converging: JJA 2025 ONI (NOAA): -0.2 JJA 2025 RONI: -0.46 August 2025 PDO: -3.23 (July 2025 PDO was adjusted to -4.12) If the el nino happens in 2026-27, I can only see it going weak or moderate. If it happens in 2027-28, it will be much stronger with the extra year to develop. (I mean, it's no surprise the 15-16 el nino was very strong because of the extra 3 years it had to develop. It didn't happen in 12-13 as most people thought, or even 14-15.)

It seems like people are pretty much already set on a niña? Are we jumping the gun?