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Weekend also looking cooler than I was hoping for. Maybe 80-82 here

57 for a low here. Meh. But it won’t get warm for a bit.

Testing modeling: WPC seems strongly attached to the much drier GEFS/EPS per no qpf in our subform, this week as per attached 5 day qpf issued around Mon 8/18 10z. Please follow NWS/WPC/NHC. I'll continue to monitor for my own interest on whether the more benign GEFS prevails over the more vigorous EPS in our NYC subforum. This post continues from Saturday 410PM and prior posts last week and will be a lesson for me regarding EPS and EPS AI. IF the GEFS is to prevail, EPS and EPS AI will have to dry out soon. EPS suite is as yet the most intriguing for 1-2" 12 hour general rainfall sometime between 8/19-21 for NJ/CT/NYS/PA, in part due to nw flow UL short wave with associated RRQ UL jet in the Maritimes and some relatively shallow low level ese moisture inflow related to the position of the H near Nova Scotia and the L near Lake Erie, connecting a bit with ERIN? EPS PW steady since the past Saturday near 1.5" for 12z Wed at 40N. Lots of fairly deep vorticity NYS into the mid Atlantic states along the boundary this week into Thu AM. Atlantic Recurvature PRE composite has had my attention since late last week. ODDS for recent drought easing rainfall per multi modeling are very low. Yet, continues my attention on ultimate results for Tue-Wed-Thu AM this week. Just to see how erroneous the EC AI can be. Added WPC 5 day, the 06z ECAI and its 06z ensemble as well as the 00z/18 EPS AI 24 hour prob for 1" (very low prob except I90 in NYS). EC EPS is less vigorous than the EC AI suite.

looks like some more rain/storm chances this afternoon before we dry out for a bit again

0.22” here from last evening

0.09" from the Sunday evening T-storm. Looked stronger on radar.

41.3° for the low here.

Wow congrats guys!

Hold up...do I spy another ERC?

Those findings aren't too surprising. The UHI Effect grows most rapidly when an area first begins to urbanize. From 1950-1980, Phoenix's population grew 6.9% per year (Phoenix metro area: 6.4% per year). Since 1980, Phoenix's population has been growing 1.7% per year (Phoenix metro area: 2.7% per year). Since 2000, those rates have slowed further to 1.0% per year and 2.0% per year respectively. Phoenix's suburbs are currently growing faster than the City.

Sitting at 0.83 for the month here, but 0.65 of that fell in first 5 days. Things are finally getting dry/crunchy around here.

Out early this morning. One word, GLORIOUS!

Effin Covid.

We take. We enjoy.

A couple things have my attention this morning: there's a big blob of convection at 7N which is significantly further south than where the NHC marked the wave. I wonder if this will help tug it south or maybe it will just go poof. Second, this morning's 06z GEFS shows a much stronger signal with many of the ensembles staying south hitting Florida.

59 here with NE winds

What a gorgeous morning. Feels like fall.

There will be WAR pumping by the developing TC behind Erin. That influence may be another pc that was not resolved at all until today’s model runs. It’s a negligible affect if Erin makes a hard right, but an important influence if that does not occur. Just another thing to monitor out of interest until Erin makes that hard right that’s being shown on the vast majority of guidance/ensemble members. If nothing else, we may see larger spread to the east/west wrt latitude in the western/slower vs eastern/faster tracks.

40F overnight. Even seeing some 39s locally.

I’ve been keeping an eye on the 75W line, and don’t think the cone has crossed it until now, even if just by a pixel. 8am advisory right around the corner.

Left the window fans on and the living room was down to 65°.

0.59” from yesterdays storms .

Very impressive satellite shots this morning! Lots of room for additional intensification next 12-24 hours before shear kicks in. We'll see how strong it can get but that is one impressive satellite presentation going on both in intensity and size.

Skunked on the rainfall again IMBY. On a brighter note it is really pleasant out there this morning. Temperature of 59, low humidity and a nice breeze. Very refreshing for a change!