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I would just caution that when models start backing in low at 5-7 days lead, it usually symbolic if not processing 'getting ready' to collapse one way or another.

kid's a freshman at PSU, going to see her this weekend and to our first game tomorrow, first real taste of fall looks like...about time!

so, water

i miss your ipa names

Yeah picked up a bit of sprinklage here.

Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies suggested a pretty active period in and near FL during the week of Sept 28-Oct 3rd. This suggests a recurving TC in that area is quite possible: This matches long-term climo well, which is at least close to the most active period for FL throughout the season: These 5 strong+ El Niño analogs with hits in FL during or near this active period shown on the Weeklies suggest to be wary especially in FL then although it’s interesting that these 5 were all 1902 and earlier as the subsequent 11 strong+ Ninos didn’t have a FL hit around then: 1902: 1899: 1896: 1888: 1877:

I’m tempted to do a rainfail contest for Sunday - Wednesday.

https://www.facebook.com/WKRNDavisNolan/posts/pfbid0dPn5tsocRuz5JK1VgL9FgdhRUQvgX2VisfbxureuofMDEvLcfEsijeuUPjhNAVqfl yep Davis Nolan among other meteorologists are forecasting a cool down coming towards the middle to end of next week looks refreshing .

This moment 23 years ago was exciting. Here's to another day like that soon.

Hello Rob + everyone. Didn’t want to see the thread go Sunday to Sunday without a post. As always …….

Was about to post about that! WOW

The ensemble means are wetter than the OPS.

Let’s see how good the Ggem really is lol

Whoa

This is no different from always. Go with the seasonal trend. Dry.

Half inch on sunday and that's about it

80s have become more common in October during the last decade. We even had November 80s two years during the 2020s. The average for warm spots like Newark has been 4 days reaching 80° past the end of September. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Oct-Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 3 0 4 2025 4 0 4 2024 4 2 6 2023 6 0 6 2022 0 1 1 2021 5 0 5 2020 0 0 0 2019 3 0 3 2018 3 0 3 2017 5 0 5 2016 3 0 3 First/Last 80° Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Minimum 02-21 (2018) 09-28 (2020) 181 Mean 03-28 10-18 203 Maximum 04-15 (2024) 11-06 (2024) 2025 03-29 (2025) 85 10-07 (2025) 83 191 2024 04-15 (2024) 83 11-06 (2024) 83 204 2023 04-06 (2023) 83 10-28 (2023) 84 204 2022 04-14 (2022) 88 11-07 (2022) 81 206 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 10-20 (2021) 80 207 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 09-28 (2020) 81 191 2019 04-08 (2019) 80 10-07 (2019) 80 181 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 2017 04-10 (2017) 82 10-21 (2017) 81 193 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223

Some 12z EPS members look fun

SPC has day 2 marginal risk out for east i65 Cumberland plateau and almost the majority of east tn for tomorrow Saturday for 5% damaging winds .

How? Looking at national, regional and local radars shows a goose egg. Apparently, radar is down nation-wide at 2:30 pm.

Well there is MGD 64. As always ……

Euro- What storm? Enjoy the nice north winds and cool temps. I'm not mad at it lol

Euro is now dry for most of next week. I know it's gonna be a cloudy cool pattern with the east winds, but it's possible that we won't get much rain.

Fort Collins has had 2.78" (roughly 2.50" on CoCoRAHS) vs an average of 3.05" in 60 days