All Activity

Thanks for the link! From there: Nov/Dec 1983: SPV not even weak Nov/Dec 1989: SPV actually pretty strong Nov/Dec 2000 no reversal but quite weak with low ~+4 late Nov:

Correct, "Rags" as publication are known, Is definitely down, Very few still subscribe to a newspaper these days or others.

Not just being cynical/snarky … I can imagine that discussion going something like subscriptions are down. Maybe followed by a sentiment that hints at vexing, “nobody reads” Writing as an industry is down.

Graupel shower. Ground whitened. 47F

Definitely a November feel out there with the overcast and chill. Sun angle is so low that its difficult to burn off any low/mid level clouds

Thanks as always, Don. The weakest zonal winds/wind reversal on your bottom chart (Euro zonal wind forecast for 12Z on 11/22/25) actually are within 60-90N (blue shades) rather than south of 60N. For 60N at 10 mb, this actually shows a very weak wind of a mere +5 on 11/22 (and is dropping) and that’s still ~3 days before the EPS mean drops to 0.

My point was about technology and solar, not China. Let me rephrase. The problem isn't a lack of technology, its a lack of focus or desire (agreeing with Tip). Climate change isn't high enough on humanity's priority list, China included. I think the phase-out of fossil fuels is only a matter of time though. Unfortunately it won't come fast enough to avoid significant climate impacts. https://bsky.app/profile/laurimyllyvirta.bsky.social/post/3m5djg6evmc2l

Interesting

Experienced that band as it slipped s.e here at work in Scranton. I saw the flashes to the nw. Was mainly graupel/ rain mix here in the valley as the band was decaying, but a short intense bout. Pretty wild!

The current (2026) Farmer's Almanac will be the final publication after more than two centuries. No more Farmer's Almanac outlooks after this winter. End of an Era: Farmers’ Almanac Announces Final Publication - Farmers' Almanac - Plan Your Day. Grow Your Life.

So much for mostly sunny today. More cloudy chilly gloom.

The closest five analog PDO cases (based on RMSE) suggest that the PDO will likely rise during the winter, but remain negative. If one looked at the top 10 cases, just one (2010-11) showed the PDO rising above zero during the winter. That case ranked 10th in terms of RMSE. The October 2025 PDO value was -2.40.

Some reports of heavy snow showers in the Poconos and NW NJ per Mt Holly

Modoki.

Go big or go home and since I'm pretty much always home, may as well go big

Did you cancel winter yet?

Yea - it got windy last night for a bit too

February is ambitious, liking the enthusiasm.

Geoff Nancy and Dr Mel the WTNH trio for me as a kid and if memory serves correct Keith Kountz and Mark Davis were news anchors at the time and Mike Bogaslowski who was always in YOUR CORNER! Such good memories

hey bud. was up north for 5 days last week, and was "logged off". I'm back now....as you just saw

It’s all a numbers and probability game. Record lows across the planet are being rapidly outpaced by record highs. So you have a much better chance of experiencing a record high than a record low. But when record lows do occur the geographic footprint is much smaller than they use to be. So it’s just easier for the core of the cold to miss any given location. Here in North America the relatively few Arctic outbreaks when they have been occurring have been more focused from the upper Midwest down the Plains and into the South. The NW Atlantic to our east is one of the fastest warming bodies of water on the planet. So our area being so close to it is making the lack of cold even greater relative to other areas.

I agree. The analog cases I used consider ENSO Region 1+2.

BWI: 24.9" DCA: 18.0" IAD: 21.0" RIC: 8.0 Tiebreaker SBY: 12.0"

Whether or not you use ONI or RONI, if you ignore what went on in Nino 1+2 last winter, then you're totally missing the picture. Last winter wasn't going to behave like a traditional la nina, or even a cold-neutral, with that warm eastern basin.

Last year I XC skied in Cherry Creek State Park on 11/10. Jeez. I may have to mow the lawn this weekend.