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Freeze warnings back up for some areas just east of the Blue Ridge. National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 150 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026 MDZ004-005-VAZ051-501-502-505-190200- /O.NEW.KLWX.FZ.W.0008.261019T0500Z-261019T1300Z/ Frederick-Carroll-Culpeper-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier- Western Loudoun- Including the cities of Bethel, Eldersburg, Lucketts, Rapidan, Westminster, Stevensburg, Buckeystown, Gamber, Turnbull, Catalpa, Park Mills, Airlie, Reva, Warrenton, Ballenger Creek, Cardova, Culpeper, Frederick, and Winston 150 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026 ...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures as low as 30 expected. * WHERE...In Maryland, Carroll and Frederick Counties. In Virginia, Culpeper, Fauquier, and Western Loudoun Counties. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Expect the coldest temperatures in valleys and other low lying areas. (snip)

The great Blizz has awakened with the onset of colder weather. Snow maps will probably be coming within the next month. What's your outlook, prediction on this coming winter?

Ray et al, a similar theme to what Ray emphasized remains even nearly a month later where the really impressive +AAM emphasis is mainly 30S to 30N: Is it normal during El Nino for the +AAM (atmosphere rotating faster than the solid earth as I understand it), which we know is characterized as El Niñoish, to usually be strongest mainly in the 30S to 30N latitudes (with the highest near the equator) since that is nearer to the Nino regions than latitudes outside of that region? If so, do the regions outside of 30S to 30N normally get consistently positive during strong El Niños? Do they ever consistently average +AAM for long periods or is that typically relegated to 30S to 30N even during the subsequent N hem. winter? ———————— By the way, the AAM by lat. above is not surprisingly still supporting a very strong global mean +AAM with it back >+3 since Oct 12th:

We'll see what happens....don't get me wrong, the DJFM period will be warm in the mean...no two ways about that.

Typhoon going into East China isnt really what you'd like to see.Sea of Japan is already warm,it will probably warm .You have different currents run through East Asia,the Thusima current runs though the Strait of Japan,the Kuroshio current as mentioned above,but just as muxh is the cold polar Oyashio current which runs from the Bearing Sea,this current generally mixes out along the Kurrishio extension,its simply not doing it,its not that cold

That is if it even ends up being a -PDO winter. I have serious doubts about that one. I think it at least flips to weak positive I don't think that warmth east of Japan is going anywhere....this is mainly about February, anyway....I'm not debating an exceptionally warm first half of the winter.

My low was 39 here in NW Philly this morning with a dp in the low 30s. Temp has recovered to 56 (my high so far) with dp 28. Am not ready to bust out the humidifiers yet.

Got down to 35 here. Vegetable garden is fine. No more frost/freeze threats in sight so the growing season will continue for quite awhile thankfully.

falcons fans are horrible at attending games, no matter if the team is good or bad.

46 was our low down towards the coast. Winds kept it from going lower. Coldest since mid May.

Low of 32 here in Marysville. First frost & first freeze this season are now in the books for me.

Don't have your same skillset but that sounds reasonable. Would need NAO help to get a favorable storm track and to trap in cold air to have a shot. Otherwise I agree that it'll be hard forcing storms to either not cut or to have any cold air in place. Will probably get a lot of warm versions of last January's big sleet storm but with a further west track. Hopefully we get things to line up enough for the mountains to get some major storms with all the precip - but that's a question I don't know the answer to.

I think he meant that by mid to late november we will have an idea how december looks, not that whatever happens in november is a sign. In fact, most of the warm Decembers here this past decade have been preceded by Novembers that were near avg or colder than avg and snowier than avg.

Sounds like half bears fans in the crowd down in atl @Chicago Storm

29 degrees here.

Yes, I do not like that term either. "Thunderstorm" is best b/c it means w/ or w/o precip which covers it all b/c how many time do you not get a drop of rain but you get LTG/T that sends @weatherwiz and @ineedsnow bouncing off the walls!? Or @CoastalWxgetting a jolt from his PC b/c of an isolated +CG hits very close that scares the bejesus out of him, but it is sunny out? And when you get to desert regions, many tstms never get a drop to the ground since it is all virga, yet the LTG/T is nasty! And when you say "thunder," that by default means convective, even when it is from CSI or embedded in a large area of synoptic precip (convective elements), so the precip is showery in nature and thus "showers" attached to thunder is redundant. I bet @CoastalWx still uses "thunderhead" to describe a CB! Also, "heat lightning!" Or he may go, "why is is called a "funnel cloud" when it always does not look like a funnel!"

low was 32F light freeze

The many upcoming chilly nights throughout the SE that have started will accelerate the autumn leaf changes everywhere, even where it’s too warm for frost. Is anyone seeing significant colors yet? I expect higher elevations almost certainly are, but what about those at 1,000 feet or lower? Here, the deciduous trees are almost all still green. By the end of the week, however, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few starting to change even this far SE near sea level.

The end of the growing season

Frost and Freeze

It's wrong if it's not your forecsst. Isn't that the way it always works? Lol

I think you’ve just about summed it up right there… saving me half of the effort. All the super nino analogs are only partial matches, and we’ve never had it this east based. If I had to guess what would happen in the atmosphere this winter, the N Pac low would be right up against the western canada coast, and the southern trough would be pulled west, making it one longwave trough rather than two separate troughs. Not saying we’ll get a SE ridge, we’ll still have a screaming STJ but embedded within a zonal flow east of the rockies, which would also bring us milder temps on the mean. Still an elevated chance for a big one compared to all winters, but not compared to other favorable ninos. If I were a betting man, I’d pass on the big one this year. As far as temps go, thinking 4-6 AN DJF, and BN snow. Way above AN precip though mostly rain. Maybe a surprise march snow.

That is if it even ends up being a -PDO winter. I have serious doubts about that one. I think it at least flips to weak positive