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0.06 temp dropped to 74 picked up 1.53" for the week

Currently getting pennied 0.03 and raining

Run ahead outflow is killing us again in Raleigh

71/58 this afternoon with wall to wall sunshine. Just a picture perfect day. Seasonal tonight with a point low of 49. This is why September is a top 5 month of mine.

Thanks. I will check that out. Since we are back to El Nino, I think I am going to eventually post my monthly loops for 250mb and maybe 500mb so I can remember what happened (without reanalysis to help me.)

Outflow just went through Holly Springs...kiss of death. Lol...but wow does it feel nice!

Another miss for me. Incredible

The single digit members (ala 96/97) are skewing it lower. Of course, that type year is on the table if the Canadian ridge bullies south. Better not.

@40/70 Benchmark do you think the current volcanic eruption will impact things at all?

Leesburg snow chart is not too inspiring. In 23/24 it was in the low 20s so obviously it’s not gospel

Today makes the 6th consecutive 90+ day at MLI. Would be the 5th consecutive 95+ day but clouds are co ck blocking full potential this afternoon.

This Christmas it'll be chestnuts roasting on an open lawn.

Omg need that dew point drop…

Had a strong thunderstorm yesterday, and it delayed the football game for an hour or so. Storms fired today but got going just south of me. So had some loud thunder but only a little rain.

Two items 1. Thunderstorms require a source of lift to form. The western piedmont trough is such a source, which is why many times cell pop-up there first. 2. Thunderstorms are by nature self-limiting as the downdraft from the rain chokes of the convective updraft. There must be some mechanism to separate the downdraft from the updraft for a system to last. One example is shear. In a stagnant dynamic environment, which is very common in this area in late summer, it is common for cells to pop off the piedmont trough but then die quickly without any mechanism to keep them going. That's not the whole story, but it's definitely a major part. Some of it is also just bad luck.

It may be hard to get too many inside runners with that look, though....IF THE MODEL IS RIGHT...pretty big time -NAO.

It kinds of seems like the same forecast from 2023, just amplified, which doesn't engender a ton of confidence from me.

Nice late summer day-76 and partly cloudy here

I'm hoping for a waterspout lol.