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Except it wasn’t a snowstorm so I’ll let you know tomorrow if the forecast verified

Not looking like it will materialize as hoped. https://x.com/judah47/status/2117410654131028269

1. A lot of it in the South is, indeed, from clouds limiting the high temps and rain leading to evaporative cooling. But there’s also dynamically induced cooling during storms due to the strong ST jet. I realize it isn’t modeling a “cold pattern” with Arctic air dominating, which I never said. 2. CWG referred to an EW H5 map at day 45 and in a blanket fashion said this was a “very warm” pattern. That same model’s 2m maps are literally disagreeing with CWG’s “very warm” pattern. That’s what first got me to post about this. The S 2/3 of the U.S. are NN to BN. 3. Despite the typical climo of very strong El Niño, nothing is anywhere close to being certain for shorter periods within the winter. Even during very strong El Niños, there have been intervals of Arctic cold dominating though Jan/Feb have had them more frequently than Dec. For example at NYC: -1/18-24/2016 -2/11-15/2016 -1/15-20/1992 -2/9-13/1992 -12/9-14/1982 -1/16-22/1983 -2/5-13/1983 -1/6-13/1973 -2/9-18/1973 -1/25-2/7/1966 -12/12-23/1888 -2/1889 very cold -1/1-9/1878 -1/28-2/5/1878

Cloudless now. Should make it to 70 or so

It always snows in the upper midwest and Lakes. The bigger issue in strong ninas for northern areas is ice thickness, snow retention, and potential abnormally dry weather patterns. Winter recreation is big in northern states, and warm nino winters put a damper on the norm....but it certainly snows.

but did the storm actually happen?

calm down, tiger. it’s going to be broken by 1°.

Sunny again

arent we supposed to get some rain friday?

Below avg snow for I70 in november looks like a lock atp. The dry pattern continues in the long range with the supposed pattern change mid month now fizzling out on the models.

Yea, 1807 was up there on my list. Good stuff, though...he reminds me a bit of Jim Hughes with the space weather focus.

Glorious day. What a winter

Well into the 60s despite solid overcast…but getting some breaks up here now. Looks like eastern sections will still push 70° with sun.

https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2117490059796484274?a=37IteOi_Ly62Baqdd2I&s=19

For those on Team Snow I have launched a new historical snowstorm mapping feature on the website that produces a snow accumulation map across the area including all surrounding counties and Philadelphia. This includes our 50 largest snowstorms since the 1890's. https://chescowx.com/snowstorm-maps/ below is the great March 1958 snowstorm.

For those on Team Snow I have launched a new historical snowstorm mapping feature on the website that produces a snow accumulation map across the area including all surrounding counties and Philadelphia. This includes our 50 largest snowstorms since the 1890's. https://chescowx.com/snowstorm-maps/ below is the great March 1958 snowstorm.

What went wrong?

Our last strong la nina (2010-11) had a great snow season, though.

Any cooler conditions in the Southeast will mostly be a function of all the clouds and rain keeping the high temperatures down. The eastward displaced Pacific vortex and the frequent jet extensions will flood North America with mild Pacific air. Those climatology packages beyond 15 days are defaulting to general El Niño climatology. This event is much more extreme than general El Niño climatology.

Classic GFS S and E bias

Summer-type of morning and day here today. Woke up to low 60s and the DP will hover in the low 60s all day with a temp in the low 70s. Barring something unforeseen the record high MIN will be smashed!