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54/37°F, Quite brisk out today, We had frost advisories earlier and now upgraded to a freeze warning, Mid 20's at a min overnight when the relentless winds relax.

The GFS is so bad it has quite literally been replaced by AI

The algorithm knows when you stop to look at something even if you don't click on it and you're just scrolling.

Going to go from a dumb phone to a smart phone?

Euro AI looks similar to the UK and Google

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 6 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): Satellite images and surface observations indicate that showers and thunderstorms are becoming better organized while surface pressures are gradually falling. If these trends continue, advisories will likely be issued on this system later today or tonight while it moves slowly eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests from the Florida Panhandle to Louisiana should closely monitor the progress of this system. The NOAA Gulfstream jet is en route to sample the environment over the Gulf this afternoon and Air Force and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi .

Euro AI looks wet from Saturday evening through some of Sunday.

I drove up to VT via the Taconic Friday and returned Sunday. I would say central VT was at or near peak. Southern VT decidedly not there yet.

Simply incredible how we haven't been able to have both Lamar and Zay on the field for an entrie game, smh It's like something said "Nah that's too easy; team has to struggle a bit to get better" lol

For you perhaps…stein is drowned here. And it’s another soaker here if that has a clue. And if Monday the 12th ends up being soaked….then it’s real wet.

Today is why October is the best (non-snow category)

I've been in San Diego the last 4 days where it's been 19 F above normal. Yay. Running in 105 F is not recommended.

It was a superstar compared to the old NGM (No Good Model), which completely dates my weather geekiness. Trying to get graphical model outputs from dialup internet connections in the late 90s was an exercise in extreme patience.

This weather is a dime. Not a cloud in the sky. Only got a brief break for lunch, but enough to recharge the solar panels until I sign off for the day.

This is quite impressive for the middle of October - lets see if any of those 80 degree temps can sneak in here before the storm arrives from the Gulf

For the first time in recorded history, the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) is above 30.0°C, reaching a preliminary SST of 30.06°C on October 5th. The Niño 3.4 SST anomaly is now 3.41°C above the 1991-2020 baseline. Everything is not fine.

can't ignore it. he's holding strong

New video by Dr. Cowan .

I don't understand how anyone who owns a home wants severe, damaging weather in their backyard. Leaving the personal injuries/death traumas aside, good luck dealing with your insurance company in getting your house repaired in a timely fashion competently by contractors willing to accept typical insurance rates. And life in a hotel for weeks on end, let alone months, is a disaster on its own. No, gimme winter weather and boredom for the other 8-9 months.

October Euro seasonal gives me 46.3" of snowfall from November-April...same, exact total as 1997-1998.

12Z UKMET is strongest run yet with a H (65 knots/983 mb) hitting Biloxi followed by a move N into MS: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 21.6N 93.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 07.10.2026 24 21.6N 93.7W 1005 29 0000UTC 08.10.2026 36 22.0N 93.2W 1003 28 1200UTC 08.10.2026 48 22.6N 92.4W 1000 35 0000UTC 09.10.2026 60 22.7N 90.9W 999 31 1200UTC 09.10.2026 72 24.6N 89.6W 995 41 0000UTC 10.10.2026 84 26.4N 89.2W 992 45 1200UTC 10.10.2026 96 29.2N 88.7W 983 65 0000UTC 11.10.2026 108 32.3N 90.0W 994 26 1200UTC 11.10.2026 120 33.4N 90.4W 1003 27 0000UTC 12.10.2026 132 CEASED TRACKING