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Indeed, although Nov on the CFS has warmed, the 10 day mean Dec has cooled ~2F in the E US since 10 days ago. 10 day mean as of 10 days ago: Latest 10 day mean: 2F cooler. Could this be related to the even weaker early Nov SPV when considering the 35-40 day lag Chuck mentioned?

Think I figured out my issue, which was true last year early on. My pool is still around 60 and my weather station is around 25 feet from the pool. After initial drop my temp levels off from midnight to sunrise on clear calm nights. By late fall last year my temps were more normal again, but until the pool temp drops my overnight low will be higher

A strong “rebound” Nina isn’t guaranteed. cold neutral is on the table.

The real question way too early is will the La Nina of 27-28 make 88-89 and 10-11 look weak

With not much else going on I thought this was worthy of sharing. Thought this was a great video clip. https://x.com/ReedTimmerUSA/status/2114179629863084042/video/1 Enjoy the weather cause you ain't gonna notice much change for a while. Nice but getting boring. Per post above from @bluewave don't like the look of this. Keep an eye on it over the coming weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern locked in for a while. Trof west / ridge east.

We grow with zero frost in sight.. Frost coverage at the coast, where the growing season remains in effect, looks to be patchy at this time.

A top 5 warmest October for Chicago and for a lot of places. Electric bill and gas bill gonna be at a low point with these perfect temps.

Judah Cohen getting excited

33 and heavy frost to the Valley floor this morning. I'm seeing some possibly big changes ahead as we enter November. It's extremely uncommon to see the models pointing to impressive Stratospheric Warming event with an elongated Polar Vortex covering the Eastern 2/3 of Canada into the United States in early November. With the usual lag time of a couple of weeks, perhaps some interesting weather ahead in time for Thanksgiving. We will see if the models are correct in the next week or so.

37…

Lol Mega torch

I'm not worried yet. I remember when we built our house in Calvert I had grass germinating in December and growing and that was over 20yrs ago. Things are done up here at DCL. All the leaves are down except for a few oak trees. My phone said 33F when I woke up this morning.

Got down to 32F earlier this morning with a heavy frost.

We are 100% on the same page. This background state is extremely hostile to major SSWEs and a sustained weak SPV….lack of a strong MJO 6, 7, 8 propagation (due to the historic El Niño), the very strong low frequency Nino forcing is totally overwhelming and muting the MJO signal, as is typical for super events, a downwelled, very strong and still strengthening +QBO, descending solar off last year’s solar max, high geomag, +IOD…….

32F for the low. Must've been a pretty heavy frost, everything was wet when I went outside.

Another day in paradise

Because it is all locked up north, ice cap already over 7.2m km². Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

Sorry Don but the concentration of daily highs were by far occurring before 2000 across all locations! Most of Yellow Medicine’s daily record highs were set before 2000: about three-quarters before 2000 and about 90% before 2020. This counts all 366 calendar dates in the raw station data through 2025. Before 2000 Before 2020 Canby (in county, 1916–2025) 76% 91% Area, all 6 stations (1893–2025) 73% 89% Area without Granite Falls 75% 91% Canby’s records show about 75% of its years are before 2000, and 76% of its records were set then. About 94% of its years are before 2020, and 91% of its records were set then. That points to no clear trend toward more record highs. By decade, the 1930s dominate: they hold about 70 of the 366 area daily records, nearly twice any other decade. Canby alone has 72 from the 1930s, against 40 from the 1980s and 32 from the 2020s. Don Granite Falls exaggerates records as in fact that station only has temperatures for 1893–1897 and then not again until 2007. These are the days with a high temperature reported each year: Years Temperature Precipitation 1893–1896 Nearly complete (317–355 days a year) Yes 1897 61 days, then it stops Partial 1898–1947 None None 1948–1951 None Yes 1991–2006 None Yes, with gaps 2007–2025 Complete Yes

Cfs2, fwiw, has been advertising a little AN December, but not a blow torch.

Well if we have a legit Stratosphere warming, the average lag in early Nov to effect the AO the greatest is +35-40 days. That's about mid December and could certainly make these blowtorch December forecasts a little less likely.