All Activity

Nam is a nice Steiner away from S coast. Both 12k and 3k.

00z HRRR is pretty so maybe you get closer to your wish than you thought? We just don't know...nobody does

Artwork by Tania Franco Klein at the Yancey Richardson Gallery in New York City:

This better be a good winter out at DCL. I'm gonna be chasing out there for every event. I'm not even gonna pay to get the drive up the mountain plowed so I can use snow chains instead.

WTF happened? Thought it was a sure deal and then it just got C**k-blocked as it hit the Potomac.

Absolutely. Under a flood watch here. Point and clicks have steadily raised expected rainfall. Now stand at 1.96 in. Blows. I wanted none.

Finally decent rainfall here, picked up 0.27 between a few separate showers. 0.29” MTD

a little cloud iridescence or sun dog

0z HRRR has some spots getting 2 to 3 inches of rain while other spots get just a tenth to quarter inch. It looks like your typical summer downpours situation with some areas getting a lot of rain and other areas getting a little. Of course very difficult to predict which areas will get hard -- just have to watch radar.

Us near-sighted people can't see anything yet.

Seems like the area storms along the eastern BR is converging towards the line of showers out in WV headed east. Wonder what the implications are for out in the Valley. Do we stay in the dry middle or does the convergence lead to outbreak of precip in the valley?

Highs: PHL: 83 New Brnswck: 82 TEB: 81 TTN: 81 EWR: 80 ACY: 79 LGA: 79 BLM: 78 NYC: 78 JFK: *77 ISP: 76

Yea radar looks like absolute garbage.

Hope I'm wrong - but this is not looking promising at the moment...

Over an inch of rain tomorrow? Don’t need that all in one shot! Hope the ones needing it get what’s needed in your areas!!

I had a couple of rounds of showers today which kept temperatures in the low 70's. The upcoming week is likely our last here in the mountains with highs in the low 80's.

Any short range models showing anything interesting?

Wonder if there could be a flood threat about to unfold on the eastern foothills of the Shenandoahs down Charlottesville and south. Bunch of slow moving storms in an extremely moist airmass drifting towards an area that will provide orthographic lift.

Would be a better fit if the dog was Frosty!

No season prior has had two very close passes to any of the islands w/ both at hurricane-strength. All areas "pay the piper" sooner or later when it comes to hurricanes. HI now, FL 2004 and other years, New England 1938-1960, the GA coast in the 1890s (3 hurr landfalls, 2 in one season!), etc. Why is Hawaii generally not favorable for TCs most of time? Gt this write-up some years ago. Very strong El Nino disrupts the typical flow/circulation regime, and makes it more favorable. ----- A TC approaching the Hawaiian Islands will often get sheared due to strong upper southwesterlies putting too much stress on the vertical structure of a TC moving westward in the slower but more dense trade flow over only marginally warm water. The shape and size of the NPAC basin means that, particularly in summer w/ the shorter wavelengths of the upper westerlies, there is usually room for more than one ridge or one trough in the middle and higher latitude flow. The Gulf of AK therefore often becomes home to a strong vertical high pressure cell, while troughing may prevail farther to the W near the coast of Asia and Japan. The rounded shape of the Gulf of AK fits well w/ the shape of the high w/ the high usually centered close to 45N latitude. A strong high at that latitude over the oceans can be considered a type of blocking high of great vertical extent. A strong blocking high tends to induce a cutoff low centered 15 deg S of the high center, which would place the low at 30N. This low pressure circulation in the weaker flow of summer is often not easy to detect in the surface flow except for a slight cyclonic shear w/ the easterlies increasing going northward and a slight curvature in the isobars along w/ increased clouds and showers. The longitude of these pressure features w/ the high at 45N and the low at 30N is usually near 160W. Thus, by extension, over the Hawaiian Islands still farther to the S and SE at 20N between 155W and 160W, this area experiences during this very common flow pattern of summer and fall a broad band of southwesterlies aloft, which is detrimental to TCs.