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That post deals the end of this month into June not this coming week. The models are projecting a classic El Niño pattern going into June

WB 12Z EPS 4 day precipitation mean thru Memorial Day.

Like Bluewave was saying, some aspects of the coming pattern are Nino like but not all. The SE ridge and coming heat over the eastern US is not. The warmth in Nino 4 is a problem and I’m guessing will cause non Nino forcing at times and MJO rotations at times in Non Nino phases. I said a couple of months ago that if we see a cool and wet summer and fall in the Great Lakes and eastern US then I’ll feel more confident of a typical strong/super Nino response come winter. Otherwise I’d be concerned about another “La Nino” which is probably actually worse for eastern winter lovers.

Hey, my alma mater! "In a 2023 paper, Robert Leamon of NASA and the University of Maryland (Baltimore County) made a striking prediction: The next El Niño would arrive in 2026." I was a Political Science major. They didn't have a met department, but I took every weather related Geography course they offered.

75° for the high. Grass and leaves just exploding. Looks like above 2000’-2500’ it’s still stick season.

whole city out

Special...

Woof.

.03 still drizzling

Torch !!!

Textbook El Niño “Gill response” pattern with the STJ showing up on the models come the end of this month going into June….

4 days of extreme heat and then we go back to low 60s with rain and clouds for 4 days straight lol at least it'll feel nice after the heat

Despite what the record says, the Orioles are actually worse than they were last year at this time. This is actually very sad baseball. On the flip side, the Nats got some great young talent that actually know how to play baseball and are having fun. I'd be excited to watch these young hitters this season.

Managed 77F here. A little bit of an over performer

Region 3.4 OISST RONI up to almost +0.6C (+0.57C) and climbing on the daily Traditional OISST ONI at +0.98C

It's literally every day. And yeah not great for the allergies either

Looks like 82 will do it for the high with the 1655 reading at CEF. Might tack on an 85 or so tomorrow.

and pollen…

That line fizzled but the outflow from it is very refreshing.

Poaching this off Spaceweather.com but I thought you ENSO geese might find this interesting... SUPER EL NIÑO, IS THE TERMINATOR TO BLAME? Headlines are buzzing with news that a super El Niño is forming in the Pacific Ocean. A solar physicist saw it coming 3 years ago. A super El Niño like this one in 1997 is now forming in the Pacific Ocean. In a 2023 paper, Robert Leamon of NASA and the University of Maryland (Baltimore County) made a striking prediction: The next El Niño would arrive in 2026. He based it on the Terminator, a magnetic event on the sun that ends one solar cycle and ignites the next. Averaging the past five solar cycles into a "standard cycle" and projecting it forward, Leamon found that El Niños follow about five years after a Terminator. The most recent termination event happened in December 2021, putting the next El Niño squarely in 2026. His model says nothing about the strength of this El Niño, but the timing is spot-on. Leamon and his colleague Scott McIntosh had previously shown that every Terminator since the 1960s coincided with a flip from El Niño to La Niña. Their work correctly predicted the onset of a triple-dip La Niña in 2020 and revealed an unexpected connection between the sun and the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation). Adapted from Fig. 5 of Leamon (2023), this chart highlights two apparently successful predictions based on the Terminator No one knows how the sun exerts control over the ENSO. Most researchers favor "top-down" models: Solar activity alters the top of Earth's atmosphere, making changes that percolate down to affect the weather we experience near Earth's surface. But the actual mechanism is unknown. At first (2021), Leamon and McIntosh thought cosmic rays were responsible. Galactic cosmic rays vary with the solar cycle, and they influence the ionization of Earth's atmosphere. But later (2023) Leamon himself weighed in against cosmic rays, noting that the timing didn't work. He currently favors a correlation with geomagnetic activity. The search for a sun-El Niño connection is as old as El Niño itself. Sir Gilbert Walker, who discovered the "Southern Oscillation" (the SO in ENSO) in the early 1900s, tried and failed to find a link to sunspots. Throughout the 20th century, other researchers likewise struggled to make the connection. The Terminator, however, is a new concept articulated by McIntosh and Leamon in a series of papers starting 10 years ago. It seems to do a good job of predicting solar cycles and may be successful with ENSO as well. It will take more than 1 or 2 successful predictions to build confidence in this model, but it's a good start. Let the El Niño begin.

Dying!

Yea, still pretty difficult to get a full day of sun here. Mostly sunny forecast yesterday and today turned into mostly cloudy conditions by late afternoon. Temps are great, though.

hahaha.... I had just provided a bit more colorful way of describing that bold key aspect there... - although you can tell the GFS' recent runs have been just ackin' to blue line us again. It's like scheming to put out a model run with Feb heights one last time

The important thing is that it’ll likely be mostly cloudy and windy.

max 75.7º