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The panic is already beginning to develop...lol

How soon until someone vibe codes their own version of the NAM and its products?

Visiting Marco Island - mostly sunny 88/73. Nice to get a beach day after rainouts Sunday and yesterday. We got a couple inches here but damn a town on the east coast near Melbourne got 21 inches. In one day! That's nuts for an upper-level trough and not a tropical cyclone.

Check the date the article was written... https://abcnews.com/amp/US/bizarre-winter-weather-yorkers-wearing-shorts-arizona-prepares/story?id=35940642 ....but keep on saying some people never learn.. lol

2014????...I think you are thinking of 2015...

We need some rain, awfully dry lately.

Same people never learn

Funny how being only 3 days into November, and it’s warm, we have people talking no snow for NYC, and also NYC above freezing all winter long. I wonder what the same people thought when Xmas Eve was 73-74 degrees in 2014?

What are you even talking about? Hasn’t rained for many in 3 weeks. A small area east of 95 may get some rain Friday. Not widespread and beyond that there’s nothing showing up. So ya it’s been dry for many of us and continues to look that way.

ECMWF has been trending toward a sharper/more amplified upper level trough Fri/Sat, with more pronounced convergence/vorticity at lower levels. The rainfall amounts it is forecasting would likely be enough to lead to flash flooding from E. LI to SE New England, despite the dry soils.

The relative Oct monthly NOAA OISST was just released: more E based as we already knew Year…..Mo….1+2…….3……….3.4………4 2026 4 1.16 0.07 0.43 -0.03 2026 5 1.40 0.68 0.56 0.46 2026 6 2.33 1.21 0.75 1.04 2026 7 2.84 1.73 0.34 1.38 2026 8 3.35 2.49 0.10 1.75 2026 9 4.01 3.00 0.00 2.09 2026 10 4.43 3.56 0.11 2.47

Will 2nd the notion that MTB is a great cross training sport. The terrain reading techniques easily translate from one sport to another.

The AAM has in recent days become more balanced than it was before by latitude: @40/70 Benchmark

70 here

I hope it was just awful luck. Like they diverted around one storm and accidently ended up directly in the path of an explosive developing cell.

Yeah, that’s why the cliff jumping vexes me.

Would be wild, but I think NYC's most modest winter low is something like 22. That might be beatable but a 10° leap - nasomuch.

72 on Nov 3rd.

78 outside, 80 inside. A/C is going on... Nothing from the sprinkles yesterday. Will likely see an 80+ this week.

Yeah sunny 71 here a gorgeous day

The megathread in r/Aviation is eye opening. It's almost like they flew into a perfect recipe for disaster.

Not to derail the thread too much, but this story out of Florida, re: the Leer jet ice up, is wild to me. RIP all who perished.

Blue skies