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Nearly half and inch of rain across portions of far northern Frederick County, as well as Carroll and Baltimore counties. Yet the two and four inch soil moisture values barely moved on any of the mesonet stations in this area. It really goes to show you how thirsty the vegetation is right now.

On the bike ride home this eve. Not raining, but enough moisture in the atmosphere at sunset?

Classic Chuck... Love you, mean it...your work is great...but your default go-to when the data doesn't illustrate what you theorize that it should is "give it another few centuries, and it will work". Well, perhaps my great, great, great, great, great, great, great grandchildren can dig you up and apologize, but for now, there is in fact a correlation there. It makes sense because the mechanisms that drive ENSO are self-destructive, which is what perpetuates the cycle. I wrote about almost a decade ago. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2016/08/delayed-oscillation-and-newtons-third.html

Getting a shower here, pretty breezy.

Sone pretty good rumbles of thunder. Storms drying up the further east they make it.

We did have that....we went from a super El Niño to a weak La Niña....that is a large swing to the opposite ENSO state.

A minute of slightly larger than pea-sized pingers in DeKalb at the tail end of the line.

Half inch of rain and some booms. Should have put down some fert

Yep. Embarrassing.

Stein took a big hit tonight. Must have had 1-1.5"

SPC - Somethin’s Prolly Comin’

If you look at March 2026, it was very +NAO, very -WPO, transitioning La Nina-->El Nino. The blend is closest in magnitude to 1986, 2014, and directly opposite March 1980, 2010 for all three factors. Been decent for March & April so far for a very simple conceptual match, although 2026 has been more extreme. March: 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010 April: 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010 - might be decent by month end. Both the super -WPO and super +NAO in March support a pretty cold West in December. The maps are correlation based so +NAO green = warm, blue cold, -WPO green = cold, blue = warm. The 1986, 2014, -1980, -2010 blend is almost identical to the -WPO blend.

My dad had one hit his neighborhood. He has no power or Internet and he hears the chainsaw going. Right up means about 1,200 ft there and that looks like about 100 knots g2g at peak Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

Ahhhhh... the rain is nice up here in 21057... .2 so far and more to come.

oh now there’s a bunch of storms

lol at SPC maintaining 10% tor probs in this area with the 8pm update while simultaneously the nader watch got dropped.

McHenry missed that storm.....but I didn't. We were driving back home from Kentucky (funeral) and experienced it parked on 31 after a powerline was snapped ahead of us. I was legit scared.

After last August don't want anymore of these moments

Columbia: 89 imby today. Nice line of rain/storms moving thru at 10pm.

Passed me on rain with more to go…congrats.

Watch extended into DuPage and Cook counties

So over it and it’s a beautiful thing. .

rockford more like rockedford

Line is starting move ESE it looks like on radar so you might just get the tail end

I guess this is a confirmed QLCS tornado near Milwaukee