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I don't think they do, unless they've changed that but might be worth it to ask. I can give a call tomorrow.

Getting into the heavier rates now, have some ground to make up to get to GYX forecast. 5” atm. Really nice wintry scene out there .

I'll take a barrage of clipper threats. Several 2-4/3-5" clippers start adding to the seasonal total quickly.

Last year was an exception, but that torch thing has been amazingly consistent most Decembers recently.

Seems like storm underperformed in New Jersey

About 4 inches of at least 15:1 fluff in PQI, wife had early dismissal from school (teacher) back home and said we had close to 3 when she got home, but she's been sitting by the wood stove since then so no updates

I just got home from work. I measured 6.0" exactly here in my part of the Poconos. Newfoundland, southern Wayne county at 2,075' feet. That was most likely after it compacted some today. I see a few reports just to my northeast, coming in with 7.0 to 8.0" inches. Regardless, was a nice moderate event for early December up here. Add in the lake effect snow back in November, I'm now sitting at 9.0" inches for the season. Im just glad my plow guy actually showed up lol. It saved me some work this evening after a long day. I hope all of those that saw the white gold today enjoyed it!

Finally crept above 32F. Rain and 32.5F. Lot of crap and ice still out there.

I edited my previous post to give you a shoutout for those posts as they are what got me largely to where I'm at! Thank you for them. BTW the best part about being a student is that while doing these breakdowns is procrastinating it feels infinitely better than doom scrolling as I can rationalize it as learning for future classes.

Temperature down to 30F. Gusty winds.

Reality check for one ensemble indicator: GEFS best and most consistent from 29/00z cycle through todays cycle on the se edge of the 24 hr positive snow depth change, and max axis snow depth change. EPS initially far too far se but slowly corrected Northwest. Ditto CMCE.

You got thrown a bone in January 2022, and me in January 2024....other than that, brutal stretch.

Ripping sleet. So irritating.

12/2- .5"

Yep, ending as raw nasty mist.

Heh....I was hoping that idea wouldn't work out, but....

You doing good friend. I used to be the one to bore everyone with all the 500 mb vorticity interactions/analysis. Now you can do it lol. It's largely what dictates our sensible weather at the surface as you are discovering. Good stuff!

Seems like any back side will be just light stuff. It needs to cool from 850 on down and I think light shit won’t cut it for more than a coating just N and W. We’ll see

18z EPS shows an even stronger signal than 12z.

Looks like me make through at least 12/9 without anything else noteworthy, so aside from this crap event, my second week idea looks to be working out....this is like 2007. We had one crap event on 12/4, then waited for the second week to really get going.

Miserable time shoveling the driveway and a stretch of road in front of the driveway. Only took me a bit over an hour but it was moderate rain and I got soaked and the snow on the ground started to get water logged.

25.6° SN 7.7” Decent growth Latest core is 3.7”/0.28” Storm total so far is 7.7”/0.63”

To be honest the upper winds is where my knowledge gets confused as we went over how the jet forms (I can tell you why the jet increases on the northward heading side of an upper low and decreases when heading south) but didn't go over the practical effect on the surface. I'm currently trying to research it on my own but generally it confuses me as my intuition says that areas of lift should form where winds are accelerating in the upper atmosphere (as it induces lower level lift as air is pulled into the upper flow) yet I know from the 4 quadrant model that understand I have is flawed. Additionally, I would've expected that stronger upper winds generally encourages cyclogenesis and didn't consider that it could actually hurt consolidation (which admittedly does make sense). Basically, what upper wind profile would actually be conductive to forming a strong surface low pressure?

Gonna near an inch of rain soon. We QPF.

Looks like my 4-8" zone for the all snow areas will work out....I just didn't see the huge rates/amounts with that shitty SG.