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5 mile tick east on the GFS and this place will go up in flames

same place as GFS but not nearly as amped.

Def more west for sure.. same time was around Poplar Bluff or southeast Missouri now stretching back toward western Missouri. I just don’t personally like the heights in the northeast.

After getting a little over 7" of synoptic snow through Sunday evening, got a little over 3" of LES overnight Sunday night through Monday. Event total of 10.4". Today, had about a two hour period of light to moderate snow late morning, followed by two pretty decent snow squalls in the early evening. Another 2.2". What a stretch of cold and snow! Could use a little warm up soon though for sure!

It does tend to translate to the surface quicker this time of year. As for what Stormchaserchuck has said it needs to be a large event that takes place to really nail that possibility in. I have this feeling we may fall short of an actual split but overall I don't think it impedes our overall pattern progression. The split would just help lock in the pattern longer but at this rate im fine with it not locking in. If we somehow get this system over the weekend I don't know where we will put the snow as it has taken a huge effort to clear what we just had and area wide saw 8-12" of snow/sleet (we saw about 10")

Starting to wrap up in western TN is pretty close to good

RGEM, NAM at range and GFS for now

RGEM west of the GFS but not as negative at end of run. More area to work with, but more work to do. Call it about even.

Now we await the King. The GFS.

Don't even know why i got even this in depth, But it was quite a bit west of the 18z run that was near Bermuda at the surface...........lol

It might have worked. Really close but hard to say. CMC will extrapolate it for us shortly

ICON was much different in the 500 mb evolution comparing the 18 Z The run overall is a huge improvement; if it wasn’t for the fact that it was ejecting the phase before it could actually complete the fusion then that would’ve been a bomb much farther west than 120 hours

RGEM gets almost the entire state involved and may have been going to go for at least a very decent event.

Interesting. In that case im above avg already so anything else is gravy.

You’re half right, it will take a couple runs for the DS data to be fully digested and the the models to adjust but Oz will be a start

yea its slower.may not be more west

To tell you the God's honest truth, I like the positioning of the ULL on the ICON alot more than the other models, if you want a major east coast snowstorm thats not a decaying shell by the time it reaches our latitude The issue is that it really focuses the cyclogenesis along the leading edge of that energy diving in from the west which clears its influence just enough to turn north too late... at 500mb it looked like it almost wanted to fujiwara it back to the west, but it escaped east at the last second. Push that ULL 75-100 miles west, I'd wager its a big-time hit. The evolution of how it played out seemed odd, though, so we'll see

RGEM is positive step vs 18z, but NAM is better. I call it a win tho

I would say 28"

0z Rgem was gonna be good!

The RGEM is a little west vs 18z, which looked pretty good itself.

I tend to joke a lot to relieve tension. Haha

Some of this seems to be timing also? RGEM looks to be a few hours slower with the entire sequence of events than it was for 18z.

Ya don't say?

It says 30" when I googled that. What say your sources?