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It will be interesting to see how warm the conus ranking is this December, since it will have a large area of well below avg temps in the Great Lakes and northeast.

i'd be very careful with that N/NE edge. it's been said (virga) but much of that may never reach the ground

Canadian looks about the same? Been stubbornly south for a few runs. Was hoping for a better move

Real early (probably premature) radar hallucination... but to my eye the radar looks pretty good tonight. Returns are turning sharply southward over Lake Huron and there's already a finger of reflectivity oriented NW to SE situated pretty far west relative to model guidance. Probably doesn't mean much at this point.

A swath from NYC to Hartford could get warning snows. Good times!

Pretty good speed convergence initially there. 65-70kt flow screeching to a halt over SNE. A little stretching along that axis too. But you can see how it starts falling apart there 6hr later and that LLJ slides SE.

Probably. We'll know the nature of this in the morning/early afternoon. If the heavy snow shield looks like it'll pound the city and Allentown gets a couple hours of good snow, that's a great sign for the city that they'll hit warning totals. If the heavy snow instead looks like it will overshoot the city and nail ALB to HFD, the city is dry in the meantime and Allentown starts right off as sleet when heavier precip finally gets there, NYC will likely underperform because the big WAA snow push is happening north of the city, warm air will get chances to advance aloft in shredded/crap precip and when it gets here it'll be too late.

Temps continue to drop. 25F. My guess here in Rockland is 7-9”

Canadian is really good as well.

Wow... So what's the Snow nap look like

Jma scores coups sometimes. I wouldn't call it a joke, but it's not a consistent top performer.

Don't be surprised if the heaviest snows end up further south. That's a cold/dry airmass taking over our region. It's 28/9 by me right now.

Shyte!!! I mean.... I I'm ecstatic for all my peeps in Ct ( I'm gonna miss the goods ). Lol!! Figures... But oh well.... I'll be checking in while I'm gone.

Agree. I think you guys are in pretty good shape out there for a couple inches.

It’s interesting became the GFS isn’t responding with a change in snow totals for most of us. The low is farther north but the sleet doesn’t get further north. You’d think with a low that far north, the sleet would get past NYC. Maybe GFS is hinting at the snow being heavy enough to resist that mid level mixing.

On the GFS, PHL and EPA has been losing snow and CT, MA, and ENY have been gaining snow.

There will be a 20-30mi wide stripe of 6"-8" somewhere across SNE/ENY . Fun to track. Nothing locked in yet.

GFS still looks good locally as depicted in terms of QPF. But it definitely shifted northeast with the mid-level lows. It now gets significant snow to ALB and HFD. A day ago they were both on the fringe of the forecasted precip. shield. The HRRR (1z, 2z) also appears to be slowly ticking northeast aloft too. Need that to stop.

Ya, I wouldn’t be so sure of that either…if we listened to you, we wouldn’t be getting tomorrows storm.

Yeah this is a case where the qpf actually probably isn’t doing it justice outside of CT. Some good banding would be likely well into ma

I dont either Amazing consistency

Yeah, especially for a global model close in. Could be some descent snow into much of MA.

Well tickle me shivers

Still have to hope for a shakeup in the pacific. Not easy to get snowstorms when you have a huge ridge over central US. Move that ridge out by extending pacific jet and then we can get some real storms to move across CONUS. Time it with an injection of cold air and bingo !