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To be clear I think winter is far from over. I just think it’s unlikely I’m below zero again this season. Still squarely in a good spot for snowfall but climo will be more hostile for big cold after the coming thaw. Still can be BN of course.

Never mind

Well, obviously my time frame for the SSW will not work out after looking likely a week ago...but I'm till not convinced we don't pull it off later in the month.

What makes me stop and wonder is, how does a 992 slp off Orf only drop this kind of snowfall rate?

sorry that was a typo, the storm that just happened Feb 6-7

I don't see anything for then, my notes have .3" on 1/4 and .1" on 1/5.

I have my moments

sad. We have had no precip since the Jan 25 storm and will not have anything till Feb 16. Thats 25 freakin days bro of no precip in the winter. How is that possible?

Glacier might finally (hopefully) take a bit of a hit the next few days.

I can't believe someone actually got it, i thought it would be Ji if anyone. Very impressive.

I think for us in the cities this is probably going to be the best case scenario. It’s either this or all rain. Just sucks because we had all this cold air and nothing to show for it

Something potential brewing 144 hours out. GFS too south for us, Canadian/Icon too far north. What do we think? Worth tracking?

Speaking of big picture ... the big picture is trying to see-saw the pattern into a -PNAP structure. Whilst some of these prior runs were also driving a trough through the eastern rising heights of that -d(PNA) ? that's a red flag, and probably why the operational GFS is pulling the rug on that event as a no show. I should have seen this myself sooner but heh, I'm seeing it now. It may 86 the idea altogether, but I wouldn't go more than middling with all that in mind. I think those eye-candy Euro runs from the other day are less able to verify given the large scale is negatively interfering. This is the mirror equivalency to ending a heat wave on Aug 10 after a hot summer, and the models looking tepid out in time. The warm enthusiasts are arguing that the back isn't broken this and that... while cool enthusiasts are overselling the significance of it... rinse repeat.

Reggae probably will tone it down somewhat . I just think a general 1-3” from north of NYC to I-90 and 2-4” north of 90 makes sense

Yeah I agree, the track and setup pretty much scream Miller-B so if anything were to fall as anything frozen more than likely going it's to be zr or sleet. My point is the models don't have it figured out yet and a lot folks seem to be writing it off. I feel like anytime a wedge setup could happen we won't really have the answers until almost go time, especially if the models are somewhat close over the next few days with temps in the mid 30s.

research shows that negative people have better outcomes than positive people, who tend to think that mole is nothing or that blood in the stool is just a hemorrhoid...of course, the weather is an independent variable

With the primary jumping from Indianapolis to secondary developing in southeastern N.C., deepening and finding a home around Nagshead/Norfolk, GGEM dumps 18" on Augusta County. GEPS comes in with 15 inches. What a trip!! That I give a 1% chance of verifying, unless the EURO spits out 12 inches. Then, that 1% leaps to 5%. If this was Thursday 12z, different ballgame.

12z CMC definitely colder and the GEFS came in better. Unreal swings of these models. They definitely dont have a clue yet

I do think it's over for significant snowfall, at least south of central VA. Would be an ice storm and anything significant seems like a stretch at this point in time

Sign me up!

Two years ago I had snowdrops blooming 2nd week of February. This year I just have snow. I like this better

well the glacier will still be around and my favorite kind of weather is heavy snow falling so....

than post some

We are talking about next Monday. We should be using ensembles at this range not operational runs

i think he meant for the storm lol. Westerly got 11.6" and there was a Voluntown 4SW report of 10.8 but thats the only report i saw over 10 in CT. How much did you get for the Jan 6-7th event? and @IrishRob17 what was your total for Jan 6-7th I have like hardly any reports for Orange County, besides a few