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NAM 3K looking good tonight. Seems like the favorable areas along the border will start snowing tomorrow anywhere from 2 to 4 tomorrow and then the other counties will start 7 to 9 tomorrow night and according to the NAM 3k their will be a heavy band of snow coming through around 5 or 6 in the morning then continue to snow through the day.

A bit of a breeze is kicking up so it hasn’t gotten below 16-17 so far. Until that breeze stops the bottom won’t really drop out on temps.

It’s seems like Mt Holly leans pretty heavily on the NBM based on the grids and afd’s, I could totally be wrong though and totally expect @MGorseto correct me if that’s the case

4 inches would shut down schools and businesses for five days down here.

19, cold

Just keeps digging. Almost into FL

What an amazing run for NE GA. These trends have been amazing for us and keep continuing! Love being in this position and feel very confident with 2-4” in my neck of the woods and that’s a lot this far south! .

Keep ticking west and that surface low will keep ticking west too

It’s still snowing lol. .

let’s go! Back to 3-6 we go .. lol

Maps?

sadly we often dont get a second snow storm after we just had a big one. so this long lived lie snow breeds snow I never bought. so many times the next storm misses or never forms. I think I only remember 2 times of back to back snow storms. one of them were back to back blizzards after the first one the meteorologist even said the chances of a second blizzard is nothing because it just doesnt happen. I mean we got the second storm but it rarely happens.

15.4

Yes, slightly so. Not what we need in Central VA but it is so, so close.

Not sure honestly made a big jump at 500 early the confluence in the NE is changing this for the better as that's stronger

3km looking juicy compared to 12km

I was actually talking with an NWS Miami met the other day about the NBM and we expressed some disagreement in its implementation. Simply put... I don't believe it's operationally sound enough to use in such an automated way that it is in some WFOs. Case in point this map here (which by the way it's showing so much snow because it's time lagged with old data). If the NWS wants to move towards "automating" their gridded forecasts, the NBM is just not it IMO! Especially in certain unique setups like this weekend storm where the models it blends can be polarizing and opposite. It's exactly as it sounds... A national blend of models. But anytime you are faced with an 80th or 90th percentile scenario, it will only give you the 50th percentile "mean" blend of all models. It happens a lot with temperatures, for example, where local climo will beat out an NBM forecast but the NWS still uses the NBM for their grids... Maybe it's just the WFOs down here in Florida, idk. I totally understand the want and need to automate some NWS jobs, but I'm old school and wish we weren't moving in that direction. Anyway, there's my rant and possibly unpopular opinion on the NBM today lol.

Doesn't make alot of sense..would think within the normal 36 hr window would want to use the most up to date data

I would think so but cant find any info. Most of the focus is on western NY

Frozen wells

If this halfway verified in CLT metro, will the I-85 snow wall come down once and for all? secondly….have the skies healed sufficiently from last weekend?

Even our friend in Savannah getting in on the act 45

NAM still a little wonky with the lift but slowly getting there

Big shift west. More in line with the Euro?