All Activity

WB 9Z NBM: models went south overnight...

Another 80°+ day coming up on Friday. That will get Newark to 115 days this year. It will leave 2026 only 3 days behind 2015. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Top 10 for most 80° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 118 0 2 2024 117 0 3 2021 116 0 4 2026 114 92 - 1994 114 0 5 2016 113 0 - 1993 113 0 - 1991 113 0 6 2011 111 0 - 2010 111 0 7 2023 110 0 8 2022 109 0 9 1959 108 0 10 2025 106 0 - 2007 106 0

Much different October El Niño pattern than we have seen in the past. The ridges are significantly further south than usual. One ridge east of Japan and another over the CONUS. Similar to the pattern we have been seeing since last May. This stronger mid-latitude ridge is the same pattern driving the -PDO +AMO. The strongest October El Niño ridge is typically in the EPO region of Alaska and NW Canada. Also different from 1997 with the strong -WPO and 2015 with the -EPO. So a further south 500 mb ridge axis from those years also. While the early September model forecast correctly got the ridge east of Japan, the ridge over North America is setting up much further south.

That a good price for coal! I have a Harmon stoker myself, probably 25 years old. But probably going to not burn as much coal this year. We will see how the winter goes. 60 degrees this morning.

US National Weather Service State College PA September featured warm and wet conditions across much of Central PA. Above average warmth was largely driven by very mild nighttime temperatures. Measurable rainfall was recorded on nearly half of the days in the month.

looks like a low of 58 here

Min of 54° to start Octorcher

Miller lite?

Glad your trip worked out, Mrs. J. The line of storms is starting to build just west of us; maybe we will get some rain after all.

Those are Miller Meh’s here typically. Compares to the mid Atlantic anyways.

7-day WPC total pcpn shows what one would expect in strong El Nino. However, i do not see any signs in the next week of the STJ dominating or emerging. Miller As will be our SAVOIR this winter!

oops! DCA: -0.6 NYC: -0.4 BOS: +0.2 ORD: -0.7 ATL: -0.5 IAH: +0.6 DEN: +1.1 PHX: +1.4 SEA: +0.8

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA +0.7 +0.7 +0.5 +0.9 +0.9 +1.1 +2.5 +1.8 +1.5

Follow-up: As expected based on the model consensus having significantly warmer 2m maps on Sep 30th vs Sep 29th at 80N+, the DMI warmed notably yesterday (>1C) vs Sep 29th as it rose to the blue line (mean for 1958-2002). It should warm further tomorrow:

Speaking of Mike Tomlin https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_h_pQ1-5iQg