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Shear is definitely evident in IR satellite, but unlike yesterday we are seeing more persistent convection near the center with pressure falling and flight level winds going up as a result. The shear has picked up substantially, which will make it very hard for the kind of vortex alignment necessary for a faster pace of intensification. And dry air is still an issue, though the persistent convection has helped some in mixing it out. Beating an old drum, but obviously land interaction will be key to future prospects, and there's still a split between legacy models and AI ensembles. The superensemble of legacy GFS/Euro still show a more northern track that takes this into the central Gulf coast. This is certainly a reasonable outcome if TD2 continues on a NNW heading. The AI ensembles however continue to show the risk that this gets "suppressed" a bit, and skirts the Louisiana coastline. The northerly shear probably keeps some of the worst weather off the coast, but there could still be plenty of impacts in rainfall and wind with banding. The higher end solutions seem to be off the table, but modest intensification still seems to be a reasonable expectation provided there are no sudden changes in the organization of the center.

“Coldest 7/20 of our lives” Chilly, but what are we doing here?

Beer I hate when he posts these…lots of short record periods or shoddy datasets at many of these sites. That’s not a record for MHT either.

58.5 this morning. Perfect day. Glad I’m off heading to Long Beach boardwalk

Plenty of lows in the 50's this morning with the lowest being 50.3 degrees at the Warwick DEOS station. Today will be the 10th below average temperature day over the last 15 days. We should continue to see below average temperatures for what is, on average, our warmest week of the year for the rest of this new work week. A beautiful day today with some ridge locations remaining just below 80 degrees. Rain chances increase toward tomorrow morning with the general forecast being for between 3/4 and an inch of rain for most spots with showers lasting till Wednesday AM. We dry out and stay cool on Thursday with highs only in the mid 70's - almost 10 degrees below normal levels for late July.

Plenty of lows in the 50's this morning with the lowest being 50.3 degrees at the Warwick DEOS station. Today will be the 10th below average temperature day over the last 15 days. We should continue to see below average temperatures for what is, on average, our warmest week of the year for the rest of this new work week. A beautiful day today with some ridge locations remaining just below 80 degrees. Rain chances increase toward tomorrow morning with the general forecast being for between 3/4 and an inch of rain for most spots with showers lasting till Wednesday AM. We dry out and stay cool on Thursday with highs only in the mid 70's - almost 10 degrees below normal levels for late July.

It's certainly not a horrible look but its pretty far off from getting to the point of being like, "yeah this is a bit concerning" and something which may result in stronger storm impacts (something like increasing concern for power outages and surge/coastal flooding). There are a lot of "if this happens" involved here. Certainly worth watching, but if I had to lean towards a direction of what this becomes, it would be minimal impact...nothing more than what this area sees with daily thunderstorms which produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. maybe a bit more of a FF risk from torrential downpours and maybe some slightly stronger wind gusts.

Agree. July is running 2.4 AN so far. If the month finishes at that mark, JJ 2026 would be 5th warmest of 29, respectable but no record. Looking at the rest of July, I'm guessing we'll be 1-2° AN at the finish.

Probably still on track to become a TS today. Still weak and disorganized given dry air and shear, but it's progresssing.

@weatherwiz you gotta remember it's July--you don't get a Beryl walking through the door often. Climo this time of year is for slow developing, messy homebrew off a stalled front and/or ULL. I have no doubt given the trend in organization today that this will become a TS. The question is whether it can fully expel the dry air that was giving it fits yesterday and keep building deep convection near the center. Proximity to land is an issue and northerly shear doesn't help with aligning the vortex. But you don't need a pristine environment for gradual organization and intensification. This isn't a horrible look.

all we need for an average spell in july is the strongest el nino in history

57.5 this morning

That looks like 65 mph damage, there were pockets of 80 in there from TDWR. Locally more damaging than the '12 derecho. I think the derecho only had 50-65 in the Pasadena / Rivera Beach area.

Jim Cantore thinks it is on its way to becoming Bertha: “Visible showing a nice twist with TD2 circulation center. There is lightning within the southern flank of that circulation. On its way to TS Bertha status.” https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/2079191019812192469

Today could rival some of the bigger diurnal recoveries since winter ended. Which is rare by the time we get to even June, let alone latter July... But it was 48 to 52 at a lot of these in-between lower el NWS sites on their interactive page, yet many of these sites are already up 25 F over those lows. No cloud/not enough to appreciably offset heating and still solar max lasing by a relentless sun... should be able to put up some 35+ deltas.

Could be one of only a few where August had more 90 degree days than July and only in 2021 (since 2010) has Jun / Aug had more 90 degree days than July. EWR at 6 currently Year July 90° Days August 90° Days Difference 2021 10 13 +3 2018 9 14 +5 2015 11 13 +2 Year June July August 2021 13 10 13

I did everything I could to summon the rain yesterday. I washed my car, put the sprinklers out on the lawn, even sprayed some herbicides. Got missed again.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1DYFcRmg1G/?mibextid=wwXIfr A couple picture from an independent fire photographer from Saturdays storm damage in parts of Enola. as many storm related incidents i've been to in my career, i 've never seen this. These picture do no justice to how this looked at 11pm through 1am.When your highway dept plows a road of downed trees like they're plowing snow, you know it was bad.

Records: Highs: EWR: 101 (1980) NYC: 101 (1980) LGA: 101 (1991) JFK: 99 (2019) Lows: EWR: 59 (1997) NYC: 55 (1890) LGA: 62 (1997) JFK: 58 (1965) Historical: 1915: A record high temperature of 115 degrees occurred in Yosemite Valley at the National Park Headquarters, California (around 4,000 feet elevation). This reading was the warmest day in a streak of 7 consecutive days of 110 degrees or higher at Yosemite Valley from the 19th through the 25th. 1921: Montana registered its record maximum 24 hour precipitation as 11.50 inches of rain fell at Circle. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1930 - The temperature at Washington D.C. soared to an all-time record of 106 degrees. The next day Millsboro reached 110 degrees to set a record for the state of Delaware. July 1930 was one of the hottest and driest summers in the U.S., particularly in the Missouri Valley where severe drought conditions developed. Toward the end of the month state records were set for Kentucky with 114 degrees, and Mississippi with 115 degrees. (David Ludlum) 1934 - The temperature at Keokuk, IA, soared to 118 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1946: The temperature at Medford, OR soared to an all-time high of 115° to begin a two week heat wave. During that Oregon heat wave the mercury hit 100° at Sexton Summit for the only time in 40 years of records. (Extreme Weather p. 276, by Christopher C. Burt) 1953 - Twenty-two inches of hail reportedly fell northeast of Dickinson, ND. (The Weather Channel) 1975: Annandale, Fairfax County, VA 16 people were struck and injured while picnicking. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1977: A flash flood hits Johnstown, Pennsylvania, on this day in 1977, killing 84 people and causing millions of dollars in damages. This flood came 88 years after the infamous Great Flood of 1889 that killed more than 2,000 people in Johnstown. 1986 - The temperature at Charleston, SC, hit 104 degrees for the second day in a row to tie their all-time record high. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather across Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 87 mph at Mosinee, WI, and strong thunderstorm winds capsized twenty-six boats on Grand Traverse Bay drowning two women. Thunderstorms produced nine inches of rain at Shakopee, MN, with 7.83 inches reported in six hours at Chaska, MN. Thunderstorms in north central Nebraska produced hail as large as golf balls in southwestern Cherry County, which accumulated to a depth of 12 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - The temperature at Redding, CA, soared to an all-time record high of 118 degrees. Showers and thunderstorms produced much needed rains from New England to southern Texas. Salem, IN, was deluged with 7.2 inches of rain resulting in flash flooding. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region soaked Wilmington, DE, with 2.28 inches of rain, pushing their total for the period May through July past the previous record of 22.43 inches. Heavy rain over that three month period virtually wiped out a 16.82 inch deficit which had been building since drought conditions began in 1985. Thunderstorms in central Indiana deluged Lebanon with 6.50 inches of rain in twelve hours, and thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 84 mph at Flagler Beach. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1993: Heavy rains caused flash flooding in the Black Hills of South Dakota. 2.5 inches of rain fell within 30 minutes causing flash flooding in the Lead/Deadwood area and the northern Black Hills. The rapid runoff from the rains also caused numerous mudslides. The mudslides were as deep as three feet on area highways and even washed out a few roads. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1993: Seattle, WA recorded their record maximum temperature of 100 °F which was also recorded on June 9, 1955. (Extreme Weather p. 278, by Christopher C. Burt) 1994: Several separate lightning bolts struck Camp Pickett, VA injuring seven officers. Two suffered serious injuries and had to be resuscitated several times. Most of the men were injured while inside tents with metal poles. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1997: 32.54 inches of rain fell at Dauphin Island Sea Lab during the slow passage of Hurricane Danny. This set Alabama’s record 24-hour maximum precipitation record. In total 36.74 inches of rain was dumped by Danny here, 26 inches of which fell in just 7 hours the previous day. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: A hailstorm (had ping-pong to baseball size) damaged most houses and vehicles on the east side of North Platte Nebraska; $7 million damage. A woman was struck on her head by a large hailstone in the Wal-Mart parking lot. She had to be taken to the hospital for stitches. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2007 Accord Publishing, USA) 2005: Hurricane Emily made landfall in northern Mexico. When the central pressure fell to 29.43 inches of mercury, and its sustained winds reached 160 mph on the 16th, Emily became the strongest hurricane ever to form before August, breaking a record set by Hurricane Dennis just six days before. It was also the earliest Category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, beating Hurricane Allen's old record by nearly three weeks.

Low of 56. Beautiful.

74 / 54 gorgeous day today, low to mid 80s. Front boundary pushes north tomorrow with southerly flow , humid , storms and chance for the next >1 inche of rain. Im less enthused that we clear our or have such a nice Wednesday, i think the boundary / clouds / showers linger into Wed. The period Thursday through the coming weekend looks great - but still throw caution with the trough in place that systems and rain could materialize, but overall looking below normal through the 27th. Beyond there moderation warmer and hot close and overall warmer - hot as western heat comes east.

No measurable rain IMBY since last Tuesday. Opportunities look better this week. Here’s hoping they materialize…

Certainly can't disagree with that. As we've seen the past decade really is you can't trust a storm in the Gulf, especially with the OHC that builds going into the season.