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  1. Past hour
  2. forkyfork
    how is dec 2015 so unreasonable if the climate has warmed since then and this nino is stronger?
  3. Keith Central PA
    Maybe because your pushing December 2015 with +10 and others here are more sensible and realistic. A December +3-+5 is more in line with 72,82, and 97..than the extreme iof 2015. .
  4. donsutherland1
    The AIFS ensembles are particularly warm for the first week of November. The regular ECMWF ensembles are still warm (highs in the 60s), but cooler than their AI counterparts. The extended range of the NBM is also closer to the regular ECMWF ensembles. Both sets of ECMWF ensembles have high spreads (uncertainty), especially after November 3. However, the uncertainty concerns the magnitude of warmth, not whether it will be warmer than normal. The idea of a warmer than normal start to November has been a recurrent theme on the guidance. The most recent ECMWF weekly guidance is below.
  5. ChescoWx
    Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots. This is about 3 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the mid 30's to low 40's. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday but by Thursday and Friday we warm to near 70 degrees which is 6 to 10 degrees above normal, before we return to near normal by Saturday. It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Monday with around 1.0" possible according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 14 years ago today back in 2012 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 4 day storm that left as much as 6.16" of rain at West Chester 2NW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Sandy which tracked within about 20 miles of the county.
  6. ChescoWx
    Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots. This is about 3 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the mid 30's to low 40's. Temperatures will be near normal Wednesday but by Thursday and Friday we warm to near 70 degrees which is 6 to 10 degrees above normal, before we return to near normal by Saturday. It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Monday with around 1.0" possible according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 14 years ago today back in 2012 the Chester County Area was at the start of a 4 day storm that left as much as 6.16" of rain at West Chester 2NW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Sandy which tracked within about 20 miles of the county.
  7. nvck
    Ride or die with this (probably dying)
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Ensembles look pretty wet starting next week. Globals habe been bouncing around but starting to settle in on idea of multiple systems
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    The season is done. It's almost impossible to get a named storm in November during an el nino. We couldn't even get one in November in 2023, and that season had 20 storms. 2 named storms and another hurricane is wishful thinking, especially in a season that's been very quiet. Maybe in the Pacific basin, but not in the Atlantic.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the elimination of the ample MC forcing from 2023-2024 helps. Strat warming is pretty varied in how it manifests so it's tough to say outside of the fact that it is probably too early at this point.
  11. HIPPYVALLEY
    Boredom until 2027 severe season?
  12. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
    https://canpointerx.com/# canada pharmacy
  13. bluewave
    Last winter was a weak La Niña and the SSW occurred in late November. This early PV disruption is occurring nearly a month earlier before the vortex fully sets in. Plus it’s forecast to rebound pretty quickly. So the amount of potential cold air is going to be fairly limited this early in the season especially against the record Northern Hemisphere temperatures in association with the historic super El Niño. We didn’t have much success with the two SSWs during a much weaker super El Niño in January 2024 and March 2024. Also the weak PV during January 1998 actually enhanced the warmth when the -AO linked up with the Southeast ridge.
  14. ChescoWx
    No evasiveness just want to see the deeper details and actual figures calculated that support these decades later adjustments to the raw data. I am a numbers guy by training so love digging into the supporting calculations that will support the adjustments.
  15. psv88
    48 overnight
  16. Lucy Pull
    With the way forcing has been setup I’m feeling a warmer version of December 1997 than 2015. All bets off if we pop an eastern ridge and it connects with the Canadian ridge.
  17. MJO812
    No one wants cold now anyway
  18. A-L-E-K
    p typical spready for klot
  19. Today
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's too early to mean much for us, even if it does result in a colder period.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I have made it clear that I am skeptical of how impactful this strat warming will be and am more interested in what it may portend later in the season.
  22. weatherwiz
    Was outside with the dog around 8:00 or so last night and was surprised how mild it still was.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's almost as if the climate is warming or something...
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this a great example of why I keep pointing out that secondary convective node around 130-150W......it fosters some variability. Does it preclude a mild season overall? No.
  25. CoastalWx
    It’s also hard for my hood to get to below 32 before 11/1. Might be similar to ORH although I think I hit it once. Since 2020. I did get to 23 on 10/31/20 with 5” OTG lol.
  26. MJO812
    Nothing is difficult in weather if things line up. I know we didnt have an El Nino the last 2 winters but people were talking in absolutes in October and the winter was different than what many thought. Bam Wx thinks the pattern will be colder as we progress into mid to late November due to the PV taking a beating. Its going to be interesting to see what happens with the PV.
  27. Torchageddon
    The NWS does ranges for forecast temps!? 64-76 wtf
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