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This is starting to look like a large amount of supercells getting going tomorrow. In the Convective Chronicles Youtube channel, Trey mentioned that tomorrow will fits the Omega Project definition of a fast-moving 500mb jet streak going into a zone of potential tornadoes (Broyles Et. Al.)

That's not unreasonable.

Ideally the ENH gets carved out of a large chunk of the LOT CWA. There just isn't enough confidence to warrant it up into the Chicago metro, with the distinct potential for the elevated late AM thru early afternoon convection to force the effective front well south. It would be tough to recover sufficiently for a meaningful severe threat with north and northeastward extent. This looks like a spatially modulated but still higher end setup where substantial air mass recovery is most likely to occur, which appears to be eastern MO eastward into adjacent sections of IL. One of our forecasters at work drew up a reasonable target area for the most appreciable sig tor threat, possibly worthy of a 15% contour.

Does anyone trade weather derivatives or is familiar with it? It's kind of frustrating that this May pattern was predictable far in advance -- March was 2nd most +NAO on all of records, going back to 1950. The +2 month, following May's had a strong below average temp signal: So here we are in May, and it's verifying Sometimes in weather forecasting there are these strong leads -- and I would like to be able to use knowledge to increase capital. PNW warmth was very predictable from pre-El Nino year May's, a composite that has been working out every month since November 2025:

CoastalWx longing for this again? He knows what this is like when he lived in Dorchester! After he had calmed down, he got mad b/c they couldn't fix the messed up transformer arcing outside! https://x.com/AdamLucioWX/status/2048255300302438510

Still looks like models are overdoing ongoing precipitation. Gonna have to closely watch what the storms in KS do further east I'd think.

Central and southern IL still in the game, and into Indiana later on. Northern IL looks pretty cooked to me.

I think that is more subjective. I tend to stay away from using those types of phrases.

00Z HRRR: We're so back?

And a shovel if Scott gets his way!

Sure does. Sat outside for 7 hours watching my kids softball games. Cold, windy, damp. Had some sun for like 45 mins then it disappeared and it got cold again haha. On the plus side they won the tournament. I'm sure I will be complaining about sitting in 95 degree humid trash air in a month though!

Tracking 1997 closely in the upper ocean. Currently well above recent non-super El Nino years. Chart from James Hansen as of March. https://mailchi.mp/caa/super-duper-el-nino

The "worst" in this case driest model is usually correct in the mid Atlantic.. Anyone know when the NAM will finally be put to bed?

Man, I don't want a cool May. It's also our most cloudy month of the year, so below average also means more clouds

Is this like comparing sugar to shit?

WB 18Z EURO for mid week.

63 for the high today. Forecast high was 59.

OHC and buoys both show sharp warming since early April: OHC: only ~+1.6 early April OHC: ~+2.0 to +2.1 mid April!

Hey @jaxjagman thank you for checkin yeah @vortexse93 is safe but he got a hell of a show! Monday looks late and west. Oh joy* , late is a Southern tradition in spring like football is in the fall. One of those is not like the other. In fact with my MLB team(s) so far, how long until fall football? Tuesday is my main interest. SPC notes the MO/KY boundary which is more the sinking synoptic front. It looks active; could be messy; and, could be nasty. However I'm a lot more interested in Arkansas. Well I would be if I was free. Tuesday Arkansas should be home to a farther south outflow boundary OFB from Monday. That OFB could be draped from GA/AL/MS curling back up into Arkansas, and intersecting the synoptic boundary in western Arkansas. Said OFB is currently forecast to get free of rain early in the day - and cook well into Tuesday afternoon. Unlike some previous scenarios, the wind shear is present in the South. Speed and turning are noted from the LLJ to the upper jet. Storm motions might not be crazy either. We'll see. Oh yeah Arkansas isn't technically our state. Well, the whole mess of clusters, blobs and discrete supercells will roll into Tennessee on Tuesday night. Joy!* *Sarcasm part of my signature is very relevant for overnight severe.

Skies cleared here for a while late afternoon with the clearing line moving from E to W for a change.

I think they started blooming very end of Morch .

Models that are wetter for midweek are showing a quicker northern and southern phase. We know how that normally plays out in winter for us but we will know in a few days.... Compare the dry WB 18Z 12K NAM to the much wetter 18Z EURO,

We fairly frequently get snowpack with 1-2" water content but rarely more than that. The most water content i can recall was 2014 with about 4-5" water content by late Feb.

Yikes. Hope this doesn't pan out.