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0.54” here
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Really hope this rain train sets up over the coop. I want water pouring out of the hillside and my road to wash out.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
ENSO vs PNA VP -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That's what I am saying about 1997, Nino 4 has warmed a lot year-to-year since then. It will be interesting to see if it resembles west-based Nino characteristics or if the warming in Nino 4 is something else. -
54/50 Dews up — landscape flowered up and plenty of deep greens. Noice.
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While the NAM often had unrealistic precipitation amounts especially since it wasn’t upgraded in almost 10 years, it did do much better than other models with the warm nose at 700mb to 800mb and snow to mix precipitation timing. So we may just have to compensate for this by manually speeding up the snow to mix precipitation timing in situations which the other models struggle to compensate for this. The other story is that the SPC HREF was one of the best models showing snow banding and extreme heavy precipitation amounts. It did very well with the late February KU and several flash flooding events over the years.
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But I brought the Germantown rain hole down here with me. Just 0.21 here
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.72” and about the same weekly total as you. The ground might not be as hard and crunchy for the next couple days. It’s been so dry in our area
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Beautiful mid spring morning walk with the dog—even some sun in the eastern sky
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Confidence growing in another massive WWB and DWKW -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
bluewave replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I like focusing on where the +30C warm pools are. Since the actual forcing driving our sensible weather follows those areas. The current forecast is for split forcing centers near the Dateline and off of Mexico in late May.That Dateline forcing is closer to near record Nino 4 and MJO 7 and the forcing further east is with the record +PMM. -
.76 last night, 1.24 for the week! Most precip in a week probably since snowcrete for here!
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46.9° Pouring
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Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
mahantango#1 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
My rain rate was 2.03in. hr. during the thunderstorm last night. It's been awhile since I think last July that my rain rate was that high. -
Maybe 0.10” here. Predictable as the day ending in “y” that it breaks up and dissipates as it gets here.
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Picked up 0.6” yesterday, loved the ol’ fashioned thunderstorm at night. Going with a bold prediction that this is the start of the ‘un-droughting’ of the region.
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It rained pretty heavily several times overnight. Definitely a lot more than I expected. I'm getting one last heavy downpour as I type. Great news!
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0z EPS looks close to mid 90s, Tues May 19.
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2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Nice 3 day run of -SOI 14 May 2026 1009.81 1010.30 -15.45 -5.70 -0.07 13 May 2026 1010.40 1010.50 -12.47 -5.50 0.32 12 May 2026 1011.99 1012.00 -11.78 -
2026-2027 Strong/Super El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Where you been buddy? We miss you! Down about the MEI coming in lower? -
Central PA Spring 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
pawatch replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
What a storm last night. Radar looked impressive! Lightning was crazy , been awhile since I seen so much lightning. straight down strikes, across the sky lightning, circling lightning precipitation was sporadic. .39” to nothing less than a mile away. Currently 45 degrees edit: got up at 2:00am pbreak solid fog, got up at 5:00am no fog at all. -
0.35" Light showers moving through now. Almost 3/4" since Monday. Not bad.
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The line of showers is once again weakening as it moves east into the metro - lets see if it ends up stalling out as some guidance suggests once it is over the metro - really need the rain.....
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Every day its the same damn thing: overcast and temps in the 40s. Early Mays sucking is nothing new, but paired with how dark and cold this spring has been here its gross beyond measure! Even on days with sun typically it doesn't last; the clouds start rolling in at 10am then overcast by mid afternoon half the time. Last week had a bit of reprieve for sun just barely enough to keep us from going mad. Last period to have avg sunshine was in January! Weds felt like a Nov day: dark, misty in the aft, 5C/upper 30s. Morning was "warm" but it tanked.
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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2026 Obs/Discussion
RedSky replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
.30"
