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Wouldn’t that be some sh*t

What a joke of an event. Will this drought ever end?

RAH AFD mentioning the possibility of losing QPF due to a "gravity wave". Wikipedia essentially describes a gravity wave as any wave where gravity is the restorative force, which describes a lot of waves. There is a section on atmospheric examples but it's very broad. Anyone care to share on what gravity wave means in the context of NC weather? Waves of moderate showers and storms will continue to be directed across the Carolina Wed evening into Thurs morning ahead of a back-door cold frontal passage slowly sagging south across the southern Mid-Atlantic. Precip chances may be negatively impacted by any gravity wave development during this time, which can rapidly erode precip generation in this type of pattern. By Thurs morning, the combination of frontogentical forcing and an area of low pressure rippling along the front will likely bring another round of widespread showers and isolated storms before shifting east of the area by late Thurs evening. Uncertainty in timing of the fropa is resulting in lower confidence in the development of an unstable air mass supportive of surface-based convection Thurs afternoon, which will be needed to realize any severe potential. Strong and increasing shear with height will be highly favorable for storm organization, but conditional on development of deep convection first. Storm total rainfall through Thurs evening looks to bring much needed rain to the area with the reasonable low-end from the HREF still producing a swath of 0.75 to 1" somewhere over the Carolinas. However, the experimental REFS paints a troubling alternate scenario with reasonable low-end amounts closer 0.25 to 0.5". With the potential for gravity wave development and more quickly eroding shields of precipitation, this scenario can`t be ruled out.

I wonder if we get some sun we see some instability this evening.

Just 0.04, hoping for thunderstorms this evening

Scott all excited about the 00z ECMWF coastal on Monday?!

0.00 for the day & month -- light drizzle 1.16 for April Firmly locked in the grip of the latest drought down here in the central Valley...

More developing in TN.

Blowing through pretty quick though.

You keep making my point. Thanks

It’s about the exciting things you can do in those seasons weather rather than the weather itself. A lot more to do in spring/summer than winter.

Here is a pic from my window this morning. Snow is too heavy for my Polaris Ranger to plow, so really hoping for some sun today.

Finally

Ensembles look warmer than the OP EURO out in fantasyland.

Totally different winter patterns. My average is 24" snowfall. In 1998, I received 33 inches. In 22-23, I received 1.50". There is more to a winter than the ENSO pattern and west or east based and strength.

Yep it’s coming. This is clearly an early developing El Niño with extreme subsurface heat, I am fully on board with the super Nino idea. Normally I lean against an extreme event until proven otherwise, but like you said them having to adjust the scales…. Have to wonder if the more aggressive normally warm biased guidance has the right idea this time (eg European).

Nice heavy downpour in Asheville

I agree...

This time of year when we can still get large synoptic scale events you want to rack up the rain totals. Soon we’ll be relying on daytime convection and 95% of the time that favors inland.

Did you even look at the Euro..??

Yeah that’s a reasonable starting point. Super nino is bad news for those of us living in northern areas.

Huh, there’s clearing out near 1-81 and even in Reston (I’m back from uva for the summer) there was a peak of filtered sunshine. Seems we may be ahead of schedule.

Awesome! Hardly anything in Asheville.

Also included 2 villages, Oxbow and Allagash, with Clayton Lake in the middle of the area. Total population <500, about 0.2 per sq. mile. 78/35 yesterday, maple buds bursting, oak not yet, white ash still asleep.