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I’ve seen you and handsome you are but model drawing quality????

Show us them bad boyz!

I missed the banning thing so can I get the skinny on how we list a great poster ?

-PDO numbers this decade.. 73 straight months of negative: Will warm ENSO break this? January 2026 -1.19 December 2025 -0.98 November 2025 -1.51 October 2025 -2.37 September 2025 -2.31 August 2025 -3.23 July 2025 -4.21 June 2025 -2.64 May 2025 -1.66 April 2025 -1.15 March 2025 -1.12 February 2025 -1.40 January 2025 -1.29 December 2024 -2.03 November 2024 -3.13 October 2024 -3.80 September 2024 -3.56 August 2024 -2.91 July 2024 -3.01 June 2024 -3.15 May 2024 -2.98 April 2024 -2.11 March 2024 -1.54 February 2024 -1.34 January 2024 -1.57 December 2023 -1.66 November 2023 -1.79 October 2023 -2.23 September 2023 -2.99 August 2023 -2.48 July 2023 -2.54 June 2023 -2.55 May 2023 -2.41 April 2023 -3.08 March 2023 -2.45 February 2023 -1.65 January 2023 -1.24 December 2022 -2.21 November 2022 -2.40 October 2022 -1.81 September 2022 -2.28 August 2022 -2.38 July 2022 -2.63 June 2022 -1.31 May 2022 -2.23 April 2022 -2.09 March 2022 -1.67 February 2022 -1.91 January 2022 -2.40 December 2021 -2.71 November 2021 -2.75 October 2021 -3.14 September 2021 -1.96 August 2021 -0.95 July 2021 -2.00 June 2021 -1.82 May 2021 -2.04 April 2021 -1.84 March 2021 -1.67 February 2021 -1.09 January 2021 -0.61 December 2020 -0.98 November 2020 -1.58 October 2020 -0.62 September 2020 -1.04 August 2020 -1.33 July 2020 -0.92 June 2020 -0.75 May 2020 -0.52 April 2020 -1.32 March 2020 -1.75 February 2020 -1.48 January 2020 -1.41 El Nino/-PDO Winters are: 65-66, 72-73, 23-24 La Nina/+PDO Winters are: 83-84, 84-85, 95-96

I told Alek last month it wouldn’t be long until you’re in the 60s and he’s in the 30s along the shore and here we are. lol

It's a slight statistical anomaly, but there is no signal on the 3rd Winter going either way, besides what is normal for El Nino.

Isn’t this winter the type of winter everyone was wondering why we didn’t get anymore? The clipper winter.

I’m not sure the preceding two winters being cold really have anything to do with it, does it? It could just be that an El Niño is typically mild where the map is mild and would look that way even if the two preceding winters were mild.

Yup, west of you and in the valley.

Kind of an interesting gradient pattern setting up latter half of Feb. Models have been leaning on the colder side too, overall prob near normal which is good enough for snow chances.

Monterey VA will. Bet that is the snow capital of Virginia. We should descend on that place

37 for the high 33.1 currently

You’re in Ellington right? Had 1” even here . But just west in valley was less

I got a dusting of sleet out of that, let alone an inch.

With 2 colder than average Winters (DJF) in the Northeast (24-25 and 25-26), I was wondering, do we have a higher chance of seeing a cold El Nino Winter next year (26-27)?? (3rd consecutive cold Winter?) Since 1950, I found 10 analogs where there were 2 cold Northeast, US Winter's before an El Nino. That is extremely high. It means 38% of El Nino's were preceded by 2 cold Northeast, US Winters. The odds of one is about 40%, using my guidelines (40-20-40), odds of two 20%, so about +2std, but limited examples [28]. So check it out.. This is the DJF before an El Nino the following year: This Winter (25-26) so far: DJF Air Temps 11 months before an El Nino: Winter 25-26 so far: And that's going to get closer to a match, as we are in -PNA for the remainder of February. The pre-El Nino composite was a great predictor this Winter, even outscoring forecasts such as the CPC. Now what did the following, 3rd Winter, El Nino Winter, look like? ^About your average El Nino composite. I'm a little surprised the map isn't skewed colder. The precip is also surprisingly below average in the Mid Atlantic, but this is just based on 10 examples: So history says that 2 cold Northeast, US Winters followed by an El Nino does not lean cold for the 3rd, El Nino, Winter, Disqualifying my thought.

soon!

Brother. We wont see snow out here either.

Dont worry guys only a few weeks out and we have another ULL bowling through haha

Oh Boy.....

That was a different setup with best north . Instead it was 1-3” SOP and 2- 4 north, This one ( if this north trend is real) would drop snow south of 90

I still feel bad for those in the screw zone, but everytime I see this I chuckle a bit too hard.

"ineedhelp", awesome!!

Drove down to Concord today for an MRI. It really is a different world down there. Bright sunshine, gorgeous late winter day. Snowed all day up here and came back to light snow still falling and snow covered roads. Got out for a few runs early this morning and the skiing was outer worldly. Pure champagne powder.

SREFs?

Similar to a dust devil? Temp thing??