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FWIW the NAM replacement is a sleet storm up to DC

Picked up an inch before switching to freezing drizzle. 28 degrees so it’s creating a glaze pretty efficiently on the roads.

Winds really picking up with gusts in the mid 30s and it’s dumping. Can’t ask for a better birthday treat!

Woulda been a real Bomb if we had a bit more PNA ridging.

Watch this be a reverse Feb 20 type bust where we manage to get a phase of the NS and southern energy within 5 days of the event.

This was the first storm I “tracked” on a weather community. I was only 14 years old. Joined up on the weather channel forums and wright-weather I believe. About 1-2 weeks before this storm our local met. Hurricane Schwartz had a segment on NBC10 Philly about a pattern change in the LR. He spoke about something called a -NAO which made me curious. Not sure why I remember this vividly, but I do lol. I always loved weather and snow so I did some internet searches and found the message boards. Before this I would get my weather news from TWC local forecasts and their 5 day outlooks lol. There was no model snow maps really that I remember. If I recall, people just posted snow fall amounts from the MRF or ETA. Using precip maps and soundings I suppose. Anyway, the night of the storm I stayed up all night watching the radar. I remember speaking to our very own Ji on AOL AIM and him telling me how big of a bust this event was for DC. I didn’t know much, but watching the radar I could tell the storm was farther E than expected. Luckily it just clipped us good enough to get a few hours of +SN in the morning down here in Philly. Ended with around 8 or so I believe. I remember speaking to someone in C Nj on aim early in the morning as well. He was going nuts at how heavy the snow was and reported thunder snow. I think his screen name was Boltaire or Killerhamster. He could be a member here since he lived in your region, who knows. Good times, then later in that season we had the March 01 bust which taught me a lot about this hobby .

Snowing moderate to heavy here for the last hour or so. Just measured 3 inches. It seems north of the city is getting it now.

Small bumps NW on the EPS..

With the approach of our next system, winds already began shifting to a more southerly direction, and that pushed some lake moisture and accumulating snow into the area this afternoon. I see the BTV NWS has us in the 3-6” shading here in the valley with some 4-8” shading farther north along the spine toward Mt. Mansfield, and that generally seems to mesh with the point forecasts I’ve seen. Some modeling gets the mountain areas up toward half an inch of liquid equivalent in the Mansfield area, but most seem to be more in the 0.2” to 0.3” range. As noted in my previous post, every bit of liquid equivalent that comes with this system will do that much more with respect to improving the quality of the snow surfaces, so it will definitely be interesting to see how the mountains fare.

Keep moving it a couple hundred miles north.

So jealous. Enjoy

This narrow band is right at the front

Hard to say nws thinks so. However, strong frontogenesis, marginal instability, and gusty west winds along and just ahead of the cold front will create a good chance for a line of moderate to heavy snow showers, and perhaps a snow squall. Latest CAMs are in good agreement at this time. The cold front will quickly move across the area, passing eastern LI/SE CT 8-9 am.

The lit up Washington Monument for America’s 250th is neat

12/5: 1.3" 12/14: 1.8" 12/31: 0.2" T: 3.3"

hmmm

So that’s what those snow ens charts look like when Steve doesn’t post them.

I want to do a little experiment.. CPC vs Natural Gas Futures. I am so tempted to trade this on my own, but I think a series of practice scenarios played out will give me a higher confidence, instead of jumping right in. Since mid-August, the pattern in the East has been cool. Don't quote me, but it might have been our coldest 4.5 month period relative to average in 10+ years. I personally think the Solar Max, with aurora borealis extending south, starting in May 2024, and lasting through Fall 2025 was associated with a pattern that gave us a lot of negative 500mb height anomalies 60-90N, for the first time since a 2020-2023: a period that was always warm 500mb everywhere. I made a list of analogs that had that warm season pattern (-SLP 60-90N), and it gave me a strong -AO signal for the following cold season (data good since 2012). CPC forecast today is going with a cold January in the Northeast! What's interesting is the very warm forecast for the 1st half of January, released the same time (today): That means Jan 18-31 is projected to be very below average in the Northeast.. now the first 5 days of the month are also cold with -NAO, but it's still a pretty big difference that needs to occur for the 2nd half of the month for that monthly forecast to verify. Natural Gas has been falling, and the March contract at $3.159 is very cheap, and favors a more +NAO Winter (I used a $4.50 as an "even" mark.. below it is more +NAO expected, above is more -NAO expected) The theory is, when and if it gets very cold in the 2nd half of January, will Natural Gas start rising every day, or is the forecast already baked in? I don't think it's in the market, or else the price would be higher in my opinion. I'm only talking about a 2 week period, so the difference will not be big, but let's see if the price rises, when and if it rises, in the 2nd half of January. To be continued...

Jax is such a straight shooter...I didn't even consider it a typo. Keeping it raw, rapid, and real in the moment, those missing characters can and will find you. Part of the fun as posters on a mission. Not to mention, when shortcuts fail, shift happens. *Crickets* I'll see myself out. Happy New Year, everyone!

Definitely more desperate.

Not a chance i see no squall at this rate

Snow squalls and people leaving the bar at the same time on New Year's Eve, 2:00 a.m. sounds great, perfect timing!

Assuming you’re trolling, because no one knows anything past ten days. Sure, it could be mild, but you can always sneak a storm in. Just like it could be cold but dry. .

You remember last year, correct? Thunder bangers and a light show. Wasn't snow but different...

I did 2 ways. Freaking delicious.