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We knew that the 12z NAM was likely overdone. 18z NAM looks fine ... a 2 to 4 inch snowfall is what we're looking for from this type of system.

Blah, the ending is where you really notice. Shifted way SE, not even close

I just want enough for my kids to be able to go sledding or build a snowman. They're starting to ask every day when it's going to snow.

Indeed. Hope it keeps dropping south in line with the GFS/UK/Euro tho just for cushion. IJS

Northern maryland’s turn for once!? .

I was going to say - A move from $5.50 to $4.22 in a few days is extreme! It's a good time to assess the situation: What major has happened/changed in this time that could be effecting not only the next few weeks, but the whole Winter? And later in the Winter - as March 2026 has dropped from $4.25 to $3.57? I've seen the models shift warm, which NG changes led by a few days, but I don't have an answer as to the greater picture right now. I know we are going into some more extreme +NAO in the next little bit of time, which effects Europe too. 480sdm low south of Greenland Hrs 120-144

Today’s Euro Weeklies for 12/22-1/18 are even slightly uglier than yesterday’s ugly maps with a strong -PNA bringing warmer than normal for each week’s average for most of the US with the strongest warmth from the lower Midwest through the C/S Plains to the SW US, where it torches for part of the time. The E US is still clearly warmer than normal but like yesterday no torch dominates. Hopefully, these maps fail miserably but I hate seeing them. But in case they were to not fail and before y’all jump off of a cliff, there is some good news for the first run with the new week (1/19-25): it transitions toward a -EPO/+PNA/-AO/-NAO. Maybe, this is a sign of better things to come by mid to late Jan? For 1/19-25: N America H5 Global H5: N America 2m temps: ahhhh!

I know people always comment on who posts and what to expect, but the biggest indicators is who isn’t posting. Scooter hasn’t chimed in wt all. Tells you all you need to know about this “threat”

I’d sign for this so fast.

NAM back to a graze. 2” on the beaches maybe and then a coating up by the pike

The 12z CFSv2 also lends some support to the "jail break" cold pattern potential just after Christmas.

nam doesn't look good

Well that would be cathartic! Sounds like we have our goalposts...now we wait, lol

Noticable shift ESE with the PV on the 18z NAM. Looks more suppressive. Bummer... was really hoping to get lucky with this one and keep trending it. Although it shouldn't be surprising that the outlier solutions shift towards model consensus.

18z NAM is more south and has similar QPF as 12z. Drops 6" just NW of Baltimore.

We all just got Nam'd!!!

NAM much better

Hoping it doesn't follow baroclinic zone put down by today's snow and more so the incoming temp gradient with the arctic front. ILX seems to think it will follow snow swath of today's system and be more south. Models right now disagree. But obviously could change.

I'm going to will it West 50 miles!

Whaaaat is the deal with central/SW Virginia this (and last I believe?!) season? Theres no way RIC has more annual snowfall than IAD lol. Then again as someone above said, they could be at their annual snowfall for the season in a few days.

Here is a prime example of the ensemble mean being skewed by anomalous members. I mentioned this yesterday. A substantial number of members from the EPS(2 sets of panels) and the GEFS (1 panel), have a cold front coming through on Christmas or the day after. The first group of thumbnails is from the GEFS at 366. Most of those members have a cold front pushing through. The EPS also has several members which produce cold. Surprisingly, the 12z GEFS has more of colder solutions. (I am pretty sure the GFS and GEFS were not updated at the same time. That leads to some discontinuity between the two at times.) This "could" be the first chink in the armor of the duration of the presumed, longer-duration warmup. Time will tell. In early December, the first signs that modeling was reverting...the oddball deterministic run which became more common and individual ensemble members.

Don’t like their graphics though

As I said earlier, when we want the PV to get involved it doesn’t. When we’d like it to retract a tad, it doesn’t. Hilarious. Snow for everybody…no snow for SNE. Oh well. It’s extremely early, so I guess there’s that.

'Good Heavens! are you guys still trying to win?'