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Damn. We bailed on our plans for today and it looks like the weather will hold until at least lunchtime. I hate when I do shit like that.

.05” of rain and current temp of 51 is the low. Great weather for 4-6 year olds to play baseball this morning.

"big" may be subjective... "when" also not so clear. I'd give it the first full week of the month to be safe. Most of what we are seeing in the pattern forcing appears to be -NAO/West orienting. The index prognostics have that relaxing during the first week... The 00z Euro decided to go bonkers with a new +PNA right as that is happening, though. And that really delays and complicates the exit strategy from the -NAO. If that has legs then an unseasonable trough delays any warmer transition. We'll see. The GEFs/GFS diverge from that idea and instead go toward neutralizing most fields. If that's the case, we go back to modestly AN. It's spring. Variance headaches are typical -

Doesn’t seem like too much rain this coming week . Possibly early May better big warm up

Far out but Euro AI crushed Northern New England

And probably the Berkshires... Plenty of rain for us and cool to cold temps.. we take!! Might have to go for a drive next weekend to see some snow tim kelly also posted this.. we take and take again

Sneaky cold am....again. 29F for the low, light frost.

For snow in far NW NY state?

27.5° Make it stop

Frosty AM. 29F

Here comes more WWBs. I think this is going to be a record-breaking TC season in the PAC….

Very strong wording in the latest D3 for Monday, got the feeling this ends up as a D2 MDT.

Interesting week ahead hmmm

The big rains modeled for today into Sunday have collapsed imby. 1+ inches modeled, now down to less than a 10th. It's brutal trying to break out of a drought. A few years ago it seemed it wouldn't stop raining. Now it won't start.

These models can be real shitty with severe,just like today.Nashville has been telling people for the last few days to not let your guard down today,which the models have been showing with basically wind dmg.We didnt get next to nothing,not even a drop of rain

Wouldnt trust any model right now in our parts,GFS even looks much better tonight,east of the Cymberland,late Monday

Definitely some interesting days ahead. NAM yes the egg nog drunk NAM at its end which is poor resolution paints conditions into the area west/middle TN. Conditions that anything that can take advantage of that environment could be quite rambunctious.

Tor warning through Gilmer. Gilmer is the tornado magnet of ET lately.

Steelers pick Allar in the 3rd round.

IAD 87 afternoon and 61 eight hours later

I'm glad, I'm going to that tomorrow and wasn't looking forward to that forecast

GFS and ECMWF show the "wheel of misfortune" in the cards. Well, we do need the rain. Maybe some big snows NNE?

Excited for this Ravens draft so far. Lane is a nice boundary X with incredible RZ upside given his size. The G from PSU is an absolute beast. I wanted him for weeks since seeing his tape. Oh, and Zion at the edge is a BULL!! Dude can gain leverage and set the edge pretty well. Power rush is a plus. Lacks speed off the edge, so he's limited in that scope, but I like the addition. I hope Mike Green can take the next step. He's the more complete pass rusher between them, but we also have Hendrickson who can teach these guys up.

April temps will take a hit. Jayne’s Hill is an enjoyable hike. My dogs love it