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  4. I believe it will be location bound. From I25 east may be normal to slightly above, while the central and southern mountains may end up with a much above normal snowpack. But all in all, very likely a big improvement over last season.
  5. Ya, but it is looking more and more likely that a 2-4" stripe of heavy rain will affect SNE first half Sunday
  6. WE have finally dried out here so hoping that's way overdone!
  7. HRRR floods CT again same as 6z 12z is 4-8" + statewide if it went out another 3 hours, when have I said that before , but other models have it too, EURO is dry but EURO sucks lately with these rain events
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  11. I like hearing this, I am doing a vacation around Lake Huron and Lake Superior coming back in through Minnesota in a few weeks. I look forward to leaf peeping.
  12. Nino 4 on latest UKMET strengthened slightly from a peak of ~+1.3 in Sep on the Aug run to a peak of ~+1.4 in Nov on the new run: Aug run: peak of ~+1.3 in Sep (non-relative) Sep run: peak of ~+1.4 in Nov (non-relative)
  13. It's going to be some chaotic modeling with any potential WCARIB gyre until we actually get a gyre and low genesis. Best watch with huge clumps of salt.
  14. The UKMET, which pretty much nailed the 2023 ONI peak of ~+2.0, just updated for Sept: it peaks at ~+3.3 in Nov: The prior run (Aug) had peaked at only +3.1: Regarding Nino 1+2, it also strengthened: New run: a little >+4 (this like for 3.4 above is not relative and thus doesn’t taken into account GW well): Prior run (Aug): ~+3.8
  15. Absolutely. I didn't understand that 3 years ago and misdiagnosed it as a Modoki signal.
  16. Nice morning here with the cold front having gone through-sun in a bit 65 degrees
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