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39 degrees and rain. Reminds me of many a Maryland winter when it's puking snow 10 miles to my west.

Of note 72 years ago today back in 1954 Chester County was on the last day of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.60" of rain at Coatesville 1SW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Hazel which tracked within about 80 miles of the county. Today we should see highs in the upper 60's to near 70 which is about 5 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the 50's. Temperatures will run about 11 degrees above normal Friday but by Saturday we drop to 4 to 9 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Tuesday. By Sunday morning lows will be in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Our best chance of rain is Friday with around 0.30" according to the ChescoWx model.

Of note 72 years ago today back in 1954 Chester County was on the last day of a 2 day storm that left as much as 1.60" of rain at Coatesville 1SW. This was the remnants of Hurricane Hazel which tracked within about 80 miles of the county. Today we should see highs in the upper 60's to near 70 which is about 5 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the 50's. Temperatures will run about 11 degrees above normal Friday but by Saturday we drop to 4 to 9 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Tuesday. By Sunday morning lows will be in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Our best chance of rain is Friday with around 0.30" according to the ChescoWx model.

100% correct. The hockey stick chart and average lifespan chart, if laid on top of one another, nearly match, but yeah, we are going to die off because of C02 and all that came from the industrial revolution is going to kill us all.

I also agree with Snowman that the forcing could be stronger further east than the models are showing since this is such an extreme event.

Going to put this out there. I've always been a bit of a weather nerd (thus generally enjoying this site) - many in my family are (though just casual). I've generally had a big respect for the meteorology profession, and my son is in fact now starting college in meteorology. But I have to say - some of this is starting to make me lose a lot of respect for the profession; the disregard for solid scientific principles in favor of bending to the winds of societal fearmongering. I'm sure it's not true of a lot of people in the profession; hopefully not most. It's just dismaying to see how prevalent it is. </soapbox>

Total agreement.

You keep shifting around the goalposts, even in your own posts. What kind of "death" are you talking about here? Because each type is hugely different. When you're talking about "world destiny" (your original) words, are you talking about: Death of humanity? Death of a bunch of non-human species? Death of "the world" - encompassing all of the above (a literal wasteland)? Each of these is *massively* different in their proposed causes, timeframes, scales, etc. Your term "world destiny" certainly sounds like the first or the latter, not just the death of a few species. While there are certainly a lot of species dying off in recent years - it has very much *not* been due to global warming; it's generally been due to habitat removal; in particular things like overfishing and overhunting (generally under control now), and forest clearing due to harvesting, farming, and development (still ongoing; though improving somewhat). On the latter - it's worth noting the massive acreage of forests that will be need to be cleared (or not allowed to regrow) to meet solar farm proposals; e.g. the 277,000-acre proposal in VA. If you're talking death of humanity - I refer to my previous chart, among other hopefully obvious things. The use of fossil fuels very much *lessens* the level of human deaths, in many, many ways. If things like king tides in Miami are such a big danger - wouldn't one expect the number of annual deaths from natural disasters to be steadily rising - not falling? Why aren't we seeing news reports of all these deaths being caused by these king tides? That seems... mysterious.

With the historic +30C warm pool pushed so far to the east, we are just going to have to wait and see what effects the western extent of the +30C warm pool are relative to the eastern side. Plus the pattern since May has been the seasonal models underestimating the southward extent of the ridging across the CONUS. So it’s possible the typical super El Niño ridge position south of Hudson Bay gets shifted further south than usual. The ridge wound up further south than the 2023-2024 seasonal winter forecasts and that was a much weaker event than this one. This stronger mid-latitude ridge has been leading to the persistent -PDO +AMO pattern during the 2020s.

High around 50 with rain today. Bring it, we need it.

October 15 1968: Unseasonably warm weather moves into central and southern Minnesota. The high was 85 in the Twin Cities. 1899: Heavy rain falls, with 3.2 inches in the St. Cloud area and 2.1 inches in Willmar. For Thursday, October 15, 2026 1880 - A violent early season blizzard raked Minnesota and the Dakotas. Winds gusted to 70 mph at Yankton SD, and snow drifts 10 to 15 feet high were reported in northwest Iowa and southeast South Dakota. Saint Paul MN reported a barometric pressure of 28.65 inches on the 16th. Railroads were blocked by drifts of snow which remained throughout the severe winter to follow. Gales did extensive damage to ship on the Great Lakes. (15th-16th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1954 - Hurricane Hazel struck the Carolina coastline. The hurricane demolished every pier along a 170 mile stretch from Myrtle Beach SC to Cedar Island NC, and obliterated entire lines of beach homes. Hurricane Hazel also destroyed 1500 homes as it moved inland with seventeen foot tides. Winds between Myrtle Beach SC and Cape Fear NC gusted to 150 mph. Hurricane Hazel caused 163 million dollars damage, and claimed the lives of 98 persons. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1966 - Iowa experienced its worst late season tornado of record. In just one minute a twister tore through the town of Belmond leveling 75 percent of the businesses, and 100 homes, causing more than eleven million dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Unseasonably cold weather continued in the eastern U.S., with thirteen cities reporting record low temperatures for the date. The low of 34 degrees at Montgomery AL was their coldest reading of record for so early in the season. Lows of 32 degrees at Harrisburg PA and 34 degrees at Parkersburg WV marked their third straight morning of record cold. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - The cold high pressure system responsible for the record low temperatures in the eastern U.S. began to move out to sea, giving way to a trend toward "Indian Summer". Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced golf ball size hail at Altamont KS and hail two inches in diameter at Yates City IL. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Hurricane Jerry made landfall at Galveston, TX, at 6 30 PM (CDT). Winds at the Galveston Airport reached 75 mph, with gusts to 100 mph. Tides along the island were six to eight feet, and rainfall totals ranged up to slightly more than six inches north of Beaumont. Three persons were killed when their vehicle was blown off the Galveston seawall into the pounding surf. Total damage along the Upper Texas Coast was estimated at fifteen million dollars. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Lower Michigan during the late morning. Two persons were injured when a tree fell on their camper at the Traverse City State park. While strong northerly winds ushered much colder air into the central U.S., unseasonably warm weather continued in the south central and eastern U.S. The afternoon high of 82 degrees at Bluefield WV was a record for October. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 15 Thu White Cane Safety Day 15 Thu National Grouch Day 15 Thu Global Handwashing Day 15 Thu National Mushroom Day 15 Thu International Day of Rural Women 15 Thu National Cheese Curd Day 15 Thu National Expense Report Day 15 Thu National Esthetician Day 15 Thu National Latino AIDS Awareness Day 15 Thu National Lemon Bar Day 15 Thu Pregnancy and Infant Loss Remembrance Day 15 Thu World Students’ Day 15 Thu HSA Day 15 Thu I Love Lucy Day

You would think that would be reflected in the precip output, but perhaps the models are just in error in that regard. We shall find out. BTW, I think the break did you well....your approach to disagreement is noticeably different and great for discussion.

Yes, but you are neglecting the western portion of that "birdge", which actually has the heaviest precipitation anomaly...this is why I argue for increased variability relative to the super composite.

Know it well….cute lil town off Rt 161.

Just a friendly disagreement, I think the forcing is actually going to end up to the east of the super El Niño composites because of the anomalously (record) east 30C warm pool. It is going to alter the global heat budget and shift the main forcing IMO

Enjoy your 300" of fluff.

I don’t think we were discussing the same exact parameters. The Nino 3 Euro forecast is nearly identical to the JMA keeping the Nino 3 anomalies over +4 into late January or February. The Nino 1+2 forecasts for both the JMA and Euro are similar. The reason I posted the JMA is that the Euro doesn’t have an absolute forecast on their site only the anomalies. So we have to work out the Euro absolutes manually. So even if the actual Nino 1+2 absolutes top out at say 29.5 C, there will likely be +30C actual SSTs just to the north near Central America or even near southern Mexico. You can see the forcing bridge on the Euro developing linking Nino 3.4 all the way over to Central America. This is signaling how far east the +30C warm pool is going to be similar to the JMA and Euro absolutes.

So the wet pattern got can kicked again…

New Sweden (just north from CAR) reported 1.0".

DT was comparing it to the perfect storm on FB.

many people don't believe this is an existential crisis for long term human civilization because so far, many people have been able to adapt to the changes that they have experienced, so far it has already become an existential crisis for some people living in and around Miami as king tides increasingly impact low lying neighborhoods; people can't sell their homes because the value is greatly diminished due the reoccurring sunny day flooding, which is progressively getting worse. for a person who lives in such a neighborhood and needs to sell and leave, it IS an existential crisis. same goes for millions who live on only feet above sea level in southeast Asia, which have substantially less means that the home owner getting flooded out in southern Florida has we've been discussing AGW/climate change and it's on-going effects since the 1970s. it's well understood. because the facts and basis for it are so widely accepted, there is a general frustration with people who won't accept the facts, or modify their behaviors accordingly

Slight risk day 2 west of the river. We'll see.