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Yeah they’ll be a DGZ above 700. So where the 700-500 lift is maximized, probably where the band is.

I am not joking or kidding . I am fully convinced and expecting a 32.8-33.4. If it starts as snow for an hour that will be the extent . There won’t be any backend snows either. At least not in CT

I’m at elevation 187’ which gives my rain plenty of time to warm up to about 80° when it finally makes its journey from 10,000ft to surface

Ok cool…no worries then. On to the next potential next Wednesday then.

I suspect other factors are involved. The lag time would be too short to attribute the development to the recent SSWE.

Yep. That's what the Gfs does

This is 100% rain event for CT now other than NW Hills . Maybe it starts as an hour of snow. There won’t be any coverings

He's prob toast too if I'm toast. We need a little trend back between now and tomorrow but that becomes less and less likely as you get closer to verification. Models are more likely to be correct when they shift the closer we are to an event.

Meanwhile -

Ended Nov with 0.83" of precip (26th driest). Oct-Nov saw only 1.47" (10th driest with avg being 5.21"). Oct was 10th driest as well. But Nov was 11th snowiest at 9.5". Interesting, but believable, because along the shore we usually get mixed precip due to warm lake temps. That LES event really bumped us up, but had a higher S/L ratio. 18:1 was what NWS DLH reported which kept overall precip low.

I think the only hope for a snowier outcome (and even then it’s mostly for the NW fringes of the forum, is for it to come in hot and heavy and the dynamic cooling and mixing of the column keeps it isothermal near 32 long enough to get the classic thump surprise. We’ve seen it happen. But it’s not something we can nail down ahead of time usually.

@dryslot

Yeah. Expecting a 2hr delay here, maybe a few hours of snow before the flip to sleet and then a cold rain.

IDK...what may prevent that idea is overall flake size might be pretty putrid. Have to wait another 56 minutes for bufkit but panning around some soundings that DGZ is awfully high. It's also difficult to find really any extraordinary lift that barely gets to the base of the DGZ. I think we'll see a narrow area where snowgrowth is excellent for a period of time, but that may be brief. Snow rates will probably be heavy but the flake size is going to be putrid. You'll have to go into NH and ME to really get the good stuff. I'm thinking 3-4" of snow is going to be the most common and widespread within the questionable areas which should hold back any power outage/damage risk. Max totals probably 5-8" into NH/ME.

Latest GFS paints you with a 6" jackpot, for whatever it's worth ha.

Bedford / Lowell area gets smoked

He’s gonna do better than he thinks…

Kevin is right on the line of 2" vs 6"

There are some false rumors about the 80s on this board at time. NYC metro to a degree got unlucky but C-SNJ/LI/CT did decently well snow wise in those winters. There was just a snow hole in regards to the metro and N NJ somewhat. 88-89 was awful basically for the entire NE but there was just way more cold air minus winters like 82-83 and 88-89

I still have faith. Every model not showing snow is a bad model.

As long as I can get a covering here…it’d be a win this early. Hopefully that’s still in the cards.

Yeah. Had more warmer than avg nights. Less Frost than usual as well as was October. On that note, what a Frost this Morning !!! Looked alike a light Snowfall.

Yeah rates def not quite as good as 06z. I think I'm pretty much toast here. Winter hill might do really well still as long as we don't get a zonked NAM look.

We have a retreating high and southerly flow blasting us as the storm is coming in. Also the low is still forming in the mid levels near us and unable to wrap cold air back south in time.

Cold seems to be backing off for tonight’s system in CAD areas. See WWA hoisted for a lot of mountain/foothills areas but icing looks extremely limited now