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Will all that cold air, with the accompanying big high pressure system suppress everything south, with just a few light snow events via clippers coming thru, or will we squeeze in a system to ride up the coast? Stay tuned.

Your understanding of how La Nina influences the pattern is far too reductive. Since we're in the mood to discuss seasonal trends, why don't see consider the model bias with respect to the amount of time that the MJO has spent phase 8.

Rain showers have been moving through this afternoon. The winds have started to pick up as well, bringing in colder air. Going to be an ice rink out there later this evening.

Here’s the biggest problem in my view with regards to where we stand and where we’re going. We’re going to be creeping into late Jan with well below average snowfall. Many in the single digits from Boston to Providence and SE (some places on the cape may be better). At this point, you’ll need anomalous positive departures to get to average. People can say “there is still time” and while true, you are increasingly relying on exotic outcomes (like 2013, 2015) to produce that type of snowfall. Again, unless you are banking on that type of thing, if we enter late Jan well below normal, a sub par season is pretty much a lock.

It would honestly be hilarious if this somehow came back from the dead..

#snowtown

And still happening on the models in the long range.

so much for my analysis, apparently it's cold and dry and I suck. talk to the meteorologists and the good posters if you want real analysis.

Amen, brother. Hope you get well soon, John.

i never said when in the extended.

Ooo, ooo, do me!

Not to agree with Ji but being honest it’s too far to our east and a bit north. If anything it’s similar how we get something like this Thursday where it’s a NS wave we pray it develops south.

Trying for a phase lol

40/70 helping snowman19 out Welcome to 2026 Anyway dont want to derail this thread.

Man, you love the pain. Respect

MJO looks likely to be headed towards phase 8 so odds are any risk of extended warm will hold off at least through the end of the month. Plus this upcoming strong westerly wind burst in the pacific could enhance our subtropical jet, and kill of the La Niña entirely in pretty quick fashion.

Nam doing Nam things at 18z

It looks pretty transient to me. I do think there is a window there 1/20-1/23 or so where a storm likely happens but right after that we continue to see the 3 ensembles all more or less go back to a +PNA look again or a hybrid -EPO/+PNA look that may be briefly suppressive. I think 1/24-1/29 may favor the MA/SE. After that might be a 2 week window up this way. I am now becoming more confident we carry this ti 2/10-2/15.

All I agreed with him on is that it's been dry and La Nina still has an influence....I'm asking for information on his other "claims", which has yet to be provided.

50s in January is pretty common here - this isn't northern New England.

No, since you are making the accusations, the onus is on you, not me. Substantiate your claims and get back to me...

Exactly

You cant be serious and agree with him. Go back to his posts about November and December and then get back to me. He did admit that he was wrong though about December being warm.

What exactly???