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  2. George001
    I’m not sure why you got roasted for that. Imo, the base assumption for 27-28 should be a fairly powerful La Niña until proven otherwise. We haven’t had a strong La Niña since the 10-11 winter, but I would not be surprised at all if that changes come fall 2027.
  3. Nibor
    I know the AQI isn’t perfect with some wildfire smoke in the air but it is beautiful out today.
  4. A-L-E-K
    Monday got some miss west/south stink
  5. snowman19
    Completely agree. IMO this is going to easily be the strongest super El Niño in history on the RONI and the traditional ONI for both peak and trimonthly average. I also think the August MEI goes above +2 and it would not surprise me at all if we tie or exceed the strongest MEI month on record sometime this fall or winter (*which I believe is +2.9 back during the 1982-83 super Niño*). I’m sure @GaWx has the actual MEI stats for that
  6. BombsAway1288
    Fleeting? What’s fleeting? My extended doesn’t get above 82 for the next 10 days minimum. Pretty nice for the climatologically hottest part of the year
  7. kdxken
    Yep! Another month or so.
  8. mappy
    I think we’ve had that convo before, how close our parents are And that makes sense. My sister’s house off Edwin Raynor, north of 100 and Mountain Road, had a lot more damage with down trees and such.
  9. Eskimo Joe
  10. kdxken
    It's perfect. Feels like September.
  11. Keith Central PA
    There we go ,couldnt agree more
  12. lee59
    A few days ago this system was predicted to go east across Florida and impact the southeast. Quite a change
  13. Elim72
    .82 in Elimsport yesterday. We missed all the weather violence.
  14. LakePaste25
    I don’t think anyone here is saying it’s not going to snow, or that there won’t necessarily be a big storm. But I think it’s an easy call that next winter will be both warmer and wetter than the previous 2 winters on the coastal plain. Here on the Great Lakes, probably warmer and drier.
  15. mitchnick
    By the way, why didn't you bother to post the Cfs2 temp forecast for the 23/24 winter. Since we're nearing the end of July, this is what it had from the 8/1/23-8/10/23 period. Pretty warm (and not very Niño canonical), isn't it?
  16. high risk
    I like what I see in the CAMs that go out to Tuesday evening (NAM Nest, HiResW FV3, RRFS). Multiple rounds of storms on a pre-frontal trough / wind shift, and possibly another line in the evening (although I suspect our environment will be worked over from the afternoon storms). Environmental parameters are solid. And for those looking to maximize rainfall, we could see an early round of storms late Monday night or early Tuesday morning as the warm front lifts to the northeast.
  17. jm1220
    No one’s expecting it to be a major hurricane. Maybe a high end TS known for dumping a ton of rain.
  18. high risk
    Getting enough low-level shear was always in doubt for this event, especially once the warm front quickly retreated to the northeast during the late morning hours. The mid-level wind speeds underperformed a bit, relative to guidance, but there should have been enough deep-layer shear for fairly widespread wind, given the magnitude of the instability. I think you're correct that the profile was overall too moist to achieve a high end wind event.
  19. TheDreamTraveler
    Oof that sucks. Hoping they get it back online today. Thankfully it's not brutally hot today
  20. osfan24
    I certainly didn’t have any problems with the smell outside this morning but it definitely still looked very hazy to me, even at ground level.
  21. TheDreamTraveler
    I didn't know that either until a few years ago. Apparently parts of Scotland like the Scottland Highlands were also part of the same chain as the Appalachians at one point which is really cool.
  22. Today
  23. Keith Central PA
    Weak sauce, dont expect a major hurricane with the ragging nino
  24. John1122
    The latest drought monitor finally removed most of my area from the drought and I suspect Thursday will remove the rest of the area. It's thundering again now and a storm is about to move over from the N/NW. I hate that you guys can't catch a break, it was actually doing that here a little over a month ago. It would rain in a circle around my area into SW Va where Daniel Boone lives. This is the 30 day rainfall with the legend below. It's been a stark contrast from the Northern Plateau to Knox down to the Chattanooga area. Todays rain and storm are moving almost on that same path as the observed rainfall.
  25. NorthArlington101 started following TD2/potential Bertha
  26. SACRUS
    Bertha soon to be
  27. Keith Central PA
    All I do is look at 72-73,82-83,97-98,15-16 and say yea they were warm..its not hard to figure out..Also 2 if those years had a massive blizzard..So a crazy,insane, earth shattering nino does not mean it cant snow.And we've had snowless winters in La Nina's and neutral winters anyway, so there are other factors.
  28. canderson
    I use a Stratus. It’s not perfect and I don’t mess with melting down snow because well I’m lazy
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