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Increased QPF and stronger inflow colder column what could go wrong Bretty

Phase 8 December Haven't seen that in years

Here are the d10-15 or d11-16 500 anomaly comparisons from the big four ensembles...Heights over Greenland are rising. BN heights over the SE. EPO/PNA ridge. BN heights over Alaska. It is correct that BN heights over Alaska don't teleconnect to BN heights over the SE as a general rule. But old school winters would have a cold Alaska and cold Southeast with an almost continuous cold feed from the Yukon into the Ohio Valley. It isn't without precedent, but recent climo is more or less against it. Interestingly, on the GEFS, the BN heights over Alaska are temporary and maybe on one other ensemble. Either way, that is a pretty decent cold signal for the first half of December. I won't rule out a big ridge rolling through for a few days.

I urge all of you to look at climatology on webber weather to see how winters used to be. https://www.webberweather.com/nc-winter-weather-climatology.html

Yeah, There is some inland tracks on some of these members which leads me to believe that the Euro is probably going to come west some in the next few cycles.

Skynet ens had more zonked members too

You slow...

12z EPS has persistent cold for though the end.

12z Euro Ens has a favorable h5 look with hints of some energy taking the southern route. Prior to that it looks NS dominant but for this window maybe we can get a wave ejecting from the SW to slide underneath.

It looks to be moving towards the GFS so yeah An inside the BM track looks doable.

Gee, I wonder where he got that from?

Lol miss Matt. Aren't you Lars' son?

You have to look at trends. Trends show the SE Ridge being muted but there enough to keep the storm track west.

The more I see from his area 2015 wouldn't doubt if he did get 140 inches. grok_video_2025-11-28-14-18-25.mp4

It does get a lot more than that but we have settled for "average" or slightly below being a great winter

If the euro is right, we snow. If anything else is right, we rain. What could go wrong

What differences between the GFS/Euro for next weekend GFS is like a carbon copy of the forecast for Tuesday, meanwhile the Euro looks more like a re-developing clipper with not much srn stream going on. But the two models aren't even on the same planet with how 500 looks across the country

Think this ends up between amped gfs runs and latest EPS?

Euro is close to a grid collapser here

This is what I mean by 25 -50 mile adjustment 12Z Euro has snow accumulations now down into central NJ and part of Ocean/Burlington County NJ

I84 and NW

These SOBs… “Saturday at the earliest”

Is he MassWx?

The GEFS have been so bad lately. Feel comfortable tossing them.