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No, 1877-78 was the super el nino. 1881 came off a weak el nino, and began a 3-year ENSO neutral period.

Definitely see it there. That's awesome Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk

As we wait for our impending heat wave to develop over the weekend, the latest ENSO forecast is out. Looks to stay neutral into the fall. Overall forecast still showing neutral to last into January (48%) but weak Nina has increased (41%) for late fall early next year. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

simple solution : barbed wire electrified fence con ed places their sensors out in the open so can the park.

Good for you! Poor eating habits are a lot easier to fall into than good ones. Especially when you're on the verge of turning 60 and haven't ate as well as I should have for many years. It took a scare to shake me out of my habit. I'm blessed that I have an opportunity to fix things.

Well that was today. I mean I’d say 75% of the time after a snowfall it gets foggy .. or like the past two days. . Foggy here and you drive down the hill and not foggy .. just cloudy

Looks like we'll get a special 18z RAOB from IAD.

If we had the steep mid-level lapse rates in place I would be pretty concerned with that 3km look. I'm sure we're going to get convection to fire today but it may really struggle to strengthen much...the dynamics will help a bit but its really warm in the mid levels.

3 of the 12 months my body hates to see come around June-July-August I get sunburned just doing my job, metal burned from car exterior, hand burns from steering wheel, back of the leg seat burn from leather seat when wearing shorts, have to hydrate way more than I care to and pee more than I need to. Only positive thing, heat makes me eat less so I will shed a pound or two.

Dewpoints in the mid-70s would be choking. Obviously big heat is coming, but models have constantly overdone heat for us the past several years. I dont think we see highs in the mid to upper 90s with lows in the mid to upper 70s. I feel it goes one of two ways. Either we DO see highs in the mid to upper 90s but cool off to at least the low 70s at night, OR we stay in the mid to upper 70s at night but only warm to the low 90s due to the humidity. I can see maybe one day of, say, 96/76, but not 3.

86 out, in sun definitely feels it. Out back in shade with breeze it's really comfortable. Bright blue skies.

I suspected they partly like it being hidden because of potential vandals or curious people tampering with it. Also for historical purposes they don't want to mess with it even though they know it's not an ideal setup. There a reason most cities official readings are at airports and not in the heart of the city. It's very difficult to find a spot that meet NWS standards in the downtown of any major city. If you did it'd be prime real estate and someone would snatch it up for a more profitable use. I think it also on the media to portray an accurate image of urban conditions and not just regurgitate whatever Central Park says. More NYC residents are closer to the airport sites anyway, and thats what weather apps will show. From my time in DC I noticed they tend to give a closer to equal respect to all the offical reporting stations.

do you think they will add wind direction to their numbers later? They have the equipment to record all weather stats don't they?

Check out the CAPE Loop.

well the 12z 3km gets stuff going earlier out here in W MA and W CT at the expense of the line later on. Goes bonkers with the instability and keeps stuff discrete. Honestly I'm pretty skeptical based on those soundings earlier but look out if it happened to be onto something.

Many of our heat records are from that period between 44-55 (1944, 1948, 1949, 1953, 1955 and then 1966 which was both extremely hot and extremely dry.)

Yes, the 10-12 day August/Sept 1953 heatwave baked a massive part of the nation. It was headline news every day in the newspaper.

https://www.njweather.org/

Both 2013-14 and 2014-15 were extremely cold here, the peak of the cold was February 2015

Any storms today?

1881 Larry

Regarding wondering if it was going into a big El Niño, what year are you referring to?

Completely disagree that it would take a major volcanic eruption to see a winter avg temp of 23.1F. We were 2.2F colder than that in 2014! Detroit saw a mean temp of 23.3F in 2014-15 following 20.9F in 2013-14. Now obviously its not common. The 23.1F mean temp in 1958-59 is the 18th coldest winter on record (and was at the time the coldest in 23 years). But I hate talking in absolutes about future weather. 2023-24 was a warm winter but it had been seen before. March 2012 had never been seen before.

on the sim reflectivity? maybe i'm looking too hard for it... I was expecting to see it actually model the little 'ring' of outflow reflectivity like you can see in real radar scans

The warm spots around the area will probably challenge or exceed the all-time June heat set back in 2021. This extreme June heat reminds me of a monsoon climate. So it will be interesting to see if we get the 10”+amounts in a few hours to days later in the season like we have experienced following past June 100° heat in 2021 and 2024.