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I think we could eliminate the possibility of high-end NE snowfall outcome in that case...mid Atlantic is different since they don't average as much as can exceed their seasonal allotment in one storm given the powerful STJ. I am with you on the cold...even if we do get a 2002-2003 or 1957-1958 type of El Nino, I don't anticipate it being as consistently cold as last season.

Box AFD has the rain well over the ocean by daybreak. Meanwhile it’s raining back to the Berks

The new normal has been record marine heatwaves across multiple ocean basins influencing our sensible weather. Oscillations and teleconnections will continue to exist. But the competing nature of the marine heatwaves will allow them to be expressed in new ways. The next question is what becomes of the record SST warmth east of Japan that we have been experiencing since the late 2010s? I see you are in the same camp with Paul. I haven’t taken a position yet on whether a strong enough El Niño can cause it to shift to another part of the Pacific basin. So right now I am in the open camp since I don’t have enough data to make a call yet. But I agree with you that we would need to significantly weaken it to allow for a very strong +PDO to emerge which we last saw back in 2015. The long range climate models maintain the warm pool there into the late fall and perhaps early winter. Beyond that point who really knows. But it will be interesting to see how things play out going forward. Since we have never experienced a warm pool there if this magnitude lasting nearly a decade before.

Yeah. I didn’t really expect rain this morning. lol at my point n click saying mostly sunny today.

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 422 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026 PAZ006-011-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-045-046-049>052-056-063- 064-270830- Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre- Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder- Montour-Northumberland-Perry-Cumberland-Adams- 422 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are possible this evening into early tonight.

The warm spots will make a run on 70° today and 80° next week.

a Here's another perspective on the oiSST data which shows the similarity to 2023. The last data point is March to date.

Only a moron would lock anything in, in March. I haven’t seen anyone lock in an east-based super El Niño on here or even on twitter. Is there an increased chance of one? Yes. Especially if those twin TC’s along the record WWB verify. That said, IF, if, if we actually do see an east-based/East Pacific super El Niño, I can say with very good confidence that it will not be an arctic cold winter, regardless of what the QBO and stratosphere/SPV and solar do. Snow is a completely different matter since we’ve seen 2 record breaking KU blizzards during super El Niños, most recent being the 2015-16 super El Niño which saw the January, 2016 blizzard. Even the east-based super El Niño of 1982-83 had the Megalopolis blizzard in February, 1983. 1997-98 was obviously a wall to wall dud for snow until the first day of astronomical spring in March, 1998, when NYC saw 5 inches of snow, which was the only snowstorm of that entire winter for them…..

Seriously? You like sweating constantly? Gnats, mosquitoes? Allergies? Hearing leaf blowers at 7am on weekends? If the Phils suck no real home town sports to watch? No real holidays? Ok, the 4th a little. And dead looking landscape? Have you seen a dry summer? We had many (consult drought guy)...ya know where the grass turns yellow-brown and crunchy where you can't even walk on it w/bare feet. Bottom line, the summer sucks for the most part besides severe weather, some fishing/gardening and you have to pray the Phils don't suck. But I'm usually sick of it come mid July and can't wait till Fall. But yeah, people who love hot weather (95F+/DP 70F+) are mentally ill or have frontal lobe damage.....

OK I took an initial stab at consolidating the data using Chester County's 3 long-term COOP stations. My consolidation doesn't look at all like your "analytics". Why? I only use periods without major station moves: 1949-2025 for Coatesville and Phoenixville and 1894-1969 for West Chester. I also use the 1949-1969 overlap period to take out the temperature difference between the 3 stations. While it doesn't look like your "analytics", my consolidation is a good match to the data collected at individual Chester County stations, posted above. That's gives my confidence in this approach and I plan to extend this method to the rest of the data.

Even when it’s not supposed to rain. (Like now) it does. Pattern looks absolutely hideous ahead

I do wish my mother in law didn’t adopt 2 cats when she was around 80 (she’s 94 now) They did provide companionship to her until she had to move into assisted living. Now we need to care for them and it can be $$$. It’s a tough decision

Tuesday and Wednesday could be quite warm next week. And then we fail after.

I think most of us realize expansion this time of year is many times the likely outcome . I wonder if anybody here could figure out the likelihood of spc expansions versus, reduction versus a consistent forecast in the final 24 and 8 hours before zero hour.

Wpc has highlighted a marginal risk for excessive rainfall ,to include all but, South central and South eastern Pennsylvania. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

Nws forecast discussion concerning this evening and tonight's thunderstorms and potentially heavy rain. Highlight Changed Discussion -- 755 FXUS61 KCTP 260823 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 423 AM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Leaning warmer with max temperature forecast today * SPC severe t-storm and WPC excessive rain outlooks expanded && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Noticeable warmup today will precede rain and thunderstorms this evening followed by a chilly/raw cool down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Noticeable warmup today will precede rain and thunderstorms this evening followed by a chilly/raw cool down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March Partly to mostly cloudy and relatively mild start today as south to southwest flow ramps up ahead of strong cold front moving southeast from the Lower Great Lakes. We still expect rain free conditions in most places to last into the afternoon (through 18Z) although can`t rule out a passing shower in the increasingly moist warm air advection pattern. Breaks in the clouds combined with the southwest breeze will support a very warm day relative to late March climo - with fcst max temps in the 65-75F range or +15-25 degrees above the historical average/within 5 degrees or so of daily record highs (see climate section). The aforementioned strong cold front will provide the primary forcing for a band of rain and thunderstorms to track from NW to SE across central PA this evening through tonight. SPC has extended the MRGL and SLGT risk convective outlooks farther eastward into western and central PA, however calibrated severe storm probs continue to focus the greatest hail/wind/tor risk in the Ohio Valley where CAPE and shear profiles are more insync. Influx of 1-1.5" pwats brings the prospect of locally heavy rainfall more into play and fcst QPF amounts have increased a bit particularly over southwest PA. It`s not clear how much fast movement and average soil moisture can be offset by training storms and orographics, but like the severe t-storm risk, the probability of runoff issues has increased on the margin and WPC will be monitoring for a targeted upgrade in the ERO. The highest rainfall totals are 1.50-2.00 inches in the Laurel Highlands.

Slight risk expanded into Western Pennsylvania Marginal Expanded well into central pennsylvania. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

It looks like a ton of rain the next two weeks.. its all good though the drought monitor will tell us we're still in a drought

If its going to be 90+ degrees... there better be a chance of storms too If its -10F... better be snowing. -10F and sunny skies can gtfo

But you're not surprised, right? A week ago I said the 60's (to low 70's) we had two weeks ago, were the highest temps until Memorial Day. Just pray for sunny days, is the best you can do.

And the updated chart:

6 year old me hanging from his basketball hoop

Just so we are all on the same boat as for locations with February anomalies: DCA: Washington Reagan (-3.8) NYC: Are we using JFK, LGA, or central park data? (-4.7, -4.6, -4.4 respectively) BOS: Logan Airport (-3.3) ORD: O'Hare or Midway? (+4.3, +3.9) ATL: Hartsfield (+3.1) IAH: Houston Bush (+6.1) DEN: Denver is a tricky one with the airport like 5 miles away from downtown but there is a Denver central park site (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=bou) (+9) PHX: Phoenix Airport (+7.8) SEA: Seattle-Tacoma or Boeing Field? (+0.4, +1.1) Any input/changes are appreciated!

I'm just biding my time right now. I will be in Ft. Wayne until 6-ish for my maintenance chemo. Will be keeping a close eye on radar so maybe I can get out of Dodge before the storms get here for a back yard chase, but will try to stay out from under any stones. Will have the wife with me who hates to chase, but she will be recruited if need be. lol