All Activity

Just like yesterday, the GEFS and EPS disagree on how long the MJO will stay in phase 8: GEFS: only 6 days But the EPS, which recently has been much steadier and has been verifying better than GEFS since phase 7, once again is going with a very long phase 8 (16+ days, longest in 50 years):

Nice hit!

GFS not backing down

Yeah...Depends on what time we get out of there and how quickly Melina wants to get home. I know I have to stop at Bass Pro/ Cabellas on the way back through as well.

GFS is partially phasing the two streams which helps it amplify Sunday night.

yea this cold with no legit snow is worst case scenario.

Or use it very cautiously. After the 2.4" we had on Nov 16 the snow cover hung around for 7 more days, despite upper 30s maxima and sunny/PC skies. Move those conditions to March 16 and the cover is gone 2 days after the storm. Noting sun angle in December means holding onto the pack.

You’ve been on a heater over the last couple of years. only a 4 hour drive away but might as well be on the moon with the sensible weather differences

I would make the 13th.

What I like to do is look on wunderground at the different weather stations throughout the valley. It usually is a good indicator on where the rain/snow line could setup during nowcasting. .

GFS much sharper with that northern stream s/w sunday night

Gfs trying for the 8th.

3-6” in like 1991 would have half the population storming the grocery stores. I remember back then how massive a 3-6/4-8” storm sounded. Im ok with nickels and dimes over the next week as long as we keep the longer wave pattern advertised. I think we’ll score something bigger at some point. We get a huge -WPO reload too so I don’t think the general cold pattern is going anywhere regardless of whether we relax a touch mid-month or not.

I hear ya man it's been a tough stretch. I'm used to being on the wrong side of the gradient in marginal events over here so I get it.

I think Dec in the city averages 2 inches of snow in Dec and not much more out here something like 3 inches or so.

kuchie clown

FWIW, that axis looks about right w/ TRI maybe being a sloppy mess.

With the axis of this narrow strip of snow, small upstream changes create HUGE downstream changes. Think of it like this. When a hurricane is approaching the coast at an angle, any upstream change drastically changes the landfall location. This snow axis fluctuates with almost every run. The current 12z GFS is a good lollipop for TRI. The 14z HRRR is north of its past run and TRI is blank. I think time of day is going to be huge. I think likely that some in the forum area will see a stripe of frozen precip along the northwest boundary of this. Where? Your guess is as good as mine. But a line from Nashville to Abingdon, VA, seems about right. Anyone 30 miles to the south of that and 150 miles north of that is fair game.

looks nice for RIC

I suspect it's going to collapse at some point, but the RAP just gave me 4 inches. Sharp cutoff south of about 15 miles north of 40.

The frustration I felt on Tuesday was exactly how I felt in the majority of the 80’s. A kid to an adult and the feelings don’t change when you get screwed .

Don't worry it's still coming more North. We still have 18Z and 0Z to get juicy.

Thinking Decembers of old were so much colder and snowier is a classic example of rosy retrospection. Yes it used to be colder. If you're 120 years old you might just barely remember when they used to harvest thick blocks of ice on Rockland Lake near Nyack. And yes, we haven't had any huge snowstorms over the past few winters. But as of December 4, this has been a pretty typical fall and winter. We haven't had any major warmups and there are none currently on mid-range guidance. It will be cold enough to snow for much of the next week (as currently modeled) and if we get a little luck, it just might snow. NYC doesn't average a ton of snow in December. The 70s, 80s, and 90s did not feature a lot of snowy Decembers.

only got down to 14 here, but winds stayed between 6-10mph all night. yesterday's freezing rain/drizzle event left a nice coating of ice on the roads and sidewalks, and the snow now has a nice crust of ice on it as well.

yeah that wave has had the most promise of the bunch