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I think it’s gonna mix down quite well later today. Gonna blow pretty good this evening

HRRR has been rock steady since yesterday that we don't lose the clouds today.

Just got into work (across from Sterling WFO) and it actually appears that this low cloud deck is rapidly thinning out behind the earlier showers. That line of showers wasn’t very dense and didn’t really fill in, at least where I live. I’m actually feeling a little better about this vs late last night when the high res models started the bust scenario.

Squall line coming through west Asheville currently. Raining sideways with lots of lighting and very windy. Torrential rainfall.

Breezy foggy showery - thats good for severe right?

Looks to me like a rainy morning. Ugh.. Hopefully this shit clears out.

I’m ready for whatever today brings. Hoping for something noteworthy, but please don’t knock my trees down

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Not a bad call it appears

I'd take cover if I was in Marshall. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

About .50 here so far

Wild un

Balmy, rain.

Feeling very lucky this storm waiting for a week of melting before hitting us….

Picked up 1/4” of rain overnight after 0.03” yesterday

Inflow notch showing up on radar SW of Marshall. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

Im done with snow but if I can get 3-5” on the grass when it’s cold I’ll take it-it can be gone Wednesday

Yup these storms have some strength to them especially getting better organized out of the west.

Yeah, we kind of lucked out with the late February snowstorm. There was just enough cold air for that to happen. If it happened even a few days later, it would have been a completely different story. There just isn't any cold air for a snowstorm right now. I mean, we just had 4 days in the 70s, with 2 of those in the 80s last week. Any snow (if it does happen) will be just like last Thursday: brief and will not accumulate.

This was fun one to track: WHEN LOOKING AT REGIONAL PRESSURE TRACES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE PATH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW HAS BEEN ON THE VERY SOUTHERN END OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER PATHS WITH A NOTABLE SOUTHERN TREND ESTABLISHED IN EACH SUCCESSIVE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST OVER THE PAST FOUR SUCCESSIVE RUNS. AS A RESULT, THE DEFORMATION "COMMA HEAD" REGION IS VERIFYING SOUTHEAST OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AND IS LARGELY CENTERED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO INTERSTATE 39. AN INTERESTING NOTE THIS MORNING IS THE CLEAR PASSAGE OF SEVERAL MESOSCALE GRAVITY WAVES THROUGH THE DEFORMATION SHIELD, WHICH WAS WELL ADVERTISED BY CAM GUIDANCE 24 HOURS AGO. EACH WAVE WAS MARKED BY A LOCAL INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE, AS WELL AS LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS (OVER 60 MPH IN SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN).

Severe thunderstorm warning just went up with a tornado possible tag.

Absolutely pouring in that thin line over the beltway.

Already 0.6" overnight. We'll see what today holds.

Yes. Only once in March 26, 1988

Morning discussion from LWX DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front pushes across the forecast area Monday, bringing gusty winds and potential for severe thunderstorms capable of producing significant damaging winds and tornadoes. A possibly high-impact severe weather event may unfold across the Mid-Atlantic region today, especially during the afternoon to evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the Moderate Risk (Level 4 out of 5) area which extends from east of the Blue Ridge Mountains to the Chesapeake Bay. The one exception to this is northeastern Maryland which is in an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 out of 5) given the cooler bay waters could weaken approaching convection. The early morning surface analysis depicts a stout cyclone racing across northern Indiana which is accompanied by a squall line which has jumped out ahead of the cold front. Closer to the local area, a wavy frontal zone arcs from just south of St. Marys County westward across Richmond and back into southern West Virginia. While surface wind vectors are out of the east, the primarly low-level steering flow is from the south. Light overrunning showers continue to lift northward through the region. The combination of weak forcing and ample low-level stability is yielding rather scant rainfall totals, generally averaging under 0.10 inches. Otherwise, low stratus will remain a fixture in the early morning forecast which comes with temperatures in the 50s to low 60s. Ample poleward flow within the warm conveyor belt should help push this warm front north of the Mason-Dixon Line by just after daybreak. While the 00Z IAD sounding is now outdated, its vertical wind profile indicates precisely why the severe threat has a high ceiling today. The 0-6 km wind fields were characterized by substantial cyclonic turning of the winds with height, coupled with surface backed flow. In the net, this sounding yielded a 0-1 km storm-relative helicity of 506 m2/s2 which is off the charts. However, the profile lacked any instability, particularly headed toward the more stable overnight hours. Despite only being 12 to 18 hours out, the 00Z high-resolution model suite continues to show timing and evolution differences. There are a couple of areas to keep a close eye on: (1) The squall line racing across eastern Kentucky/Ohio right now (331 AM) and (2) The low stratus deck in place. In terms of recovery, this low cloud deck will need to erode to allow the 500 to 750 J/kg of surface-based CAPE to materialize. All signs point toward gradual erosion of these stratus clouds, but it may take until after the noon hour. Even then, these could just be breaks in the clouds. Any additional insolation through the day will help increase instability in the presence of substantial vertical shear (0-6 km values around 55 to 65 knots). The other aspect of the forecast references the upstream squall line. How long this holds on and its cirrus canopy overspreading the region will also play some roles in how convective development evolves. With the degree of deep-layer shear in place, any of the pre- frontal discrete cells will pose a risk of becoming a supercell. These would be most conducive to producing a tornado, particularly if the enlarged 0-1 km and 0-3 km hodographs hold as true as forecast soundings depict. However, some of the high-resolution guidance show a slew of cells firing up at once which would favor more competition amongst them. This would diminish the tornado risk as multicell convection dominates. At the same time, another squall line is likely to form off the higher terrain this afternoon. While the vertical shear vector does not align perpendicular to the forming line, enough angle between the two should favor evolution into a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS). These are prone to producing spin up tornadoes along any kinks in the line. Where this line bows out is where the 70 to 80 mph wind gust possibliity will be maximized. All of this slides eastward at a fairly hefty speed, perhaps 40 to 50 mph. Severe convection is expected to near the I-95 corridor during the evening rush hour before exiting the Chesapeake Bay by the early/mid evening hours. Some weakening is possible east of I-95 as the system begins to ingest the colder Chesapeake Bay waters. Outside of convection, conditions will be gusty today as a deep surface low tracks across the Great Lakes. Strengthening southerly flow may gust to 30 to 40 mph, with gusts closer to 50 mph in the mountains. Additionally, this also could occur in northeastern Maryland given this region stays in the warm sector longer and perhaps free of convection. Wind Advisories are in place across these areas which may see 50 mph gusts outside of any convection. Eventually a powerful cold front will usher in a cold and blustery air mass to the region. Gusts may be strong enough in the mountains to support additional Wind Advisories. All and all, ensure everyone has multiple ways to receive hazardous weather information from the National Weather Service. When it comes to Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, know where your safe place is and remain there until the storm has moved through and alerts have ended.