All Activity

The current (2026) Farmer's Almanac will be the final publication after more than two centuries. No more Farmer's Almanac outlooks after this winter. End of an Era: Farmers’ Almanac Announces Final Publication - Farmers' Almanac - Plan Your Day. Grow Your Life.

So much for mostly sunny today. More cloudy chilly gloom.

The closest five analog PDO cases (based on RMSE) suggest that the PDO will likely rise during the winter, but remain negative. If one looked at the top 10 cases, just one (2010-11) showed the PDO rising above zero during the winter. That case ranked 10th in terms of RMSE. The October 2025 PDO value was -2.40.

Some reports of heavy snow showers in the Poconos and NW NJ per Mt Holly

Modoki.

Go big or go home and since I'm pretty much always home, may as well go big

Did you cancel winter yet?

Yea - it got windy last night for a bit too

February is ambitious, liking the enthusiasm.

Geoff Nancy and Dr Mel the WTNH trio for me as a kid and if memory serves correct Keith Kountz and Mark Davis were news anchors at the time and Mike Bogaslowski who was always in YOUR CORNER! Such good memories

hey bud. was up north for 5 days last week, and was "logged off". I'm back now....as you just saw

It’s all a numbers and probability game. Record lows across the planet are being rapidly outpaced by record highs. So you have a much better chance of experiencing a record high than a record low. But when record lows do occur the geographic footprint is much smaller than they use to be. So it’s just easier for the core of the cold to miss any given location. Here in North America the relatively few Arctic outbreaks when they have been occurring have been more focused from the upper Midwest down the Plains and into the South. The NW Atlantic to our east is one of the fastest warming bodies of water on the planet. So our area being so close to it is making the lack of cold even greater relative to other areas.

I agree. The analog cases I used consider ENSO Region 1+2.

BWI: 24.9" DCA: 18.0" IAD: 21.0" RIC: 8.0 Tiebreaker SBY: 12.0"

Whether or not you use ONI or RONI, if you ignore what went on in Nino 1+2 last winter, then you're totally missing the picture. Last winter wasn't going to behave like a traditional la nina, or even a cold-neutral, with that warm eastern basin.

Last year I XC skied in Cherry Creek State Park on 11/10. Jeez. I may have to mow the lawn this weekend.

I hope we get smoked for the first half of winter and then warm up in March. I've been thinking about this lately. As much as I hate the cold, its tolerable in December, January, and February but by the time March rolls around...I'm done, fed up, ready for warmth. Hoping for about 20-25" in December and January, then 30-40" in February, then off to the 70's in March.

I see your point. The argument for RONI is that the overall warming of the Pacific is not temporary or cyclical. The use of traditional ENSO metrics i.e., R3.4 anomaly, ONI, etc., has beenb contaminated by the overall warming of the Pacific. In their present form, El Niño events are amplified while La Niña ones are shown as weaker. As the warming continues, La Niña events could even be obscured. Winter 2024-2025 is one such case. It showed up as neutral-cold on ONI, but was a La Niña case according to RONI. Some useful literature on the use of a relative index: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abe9ed https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/37/4/JCLI-D-23-0406.1.xml Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has already made the switch to RONI. Here's a table from the article concerning the BOM's shift:

Yuck. I hope it’s warm from now until mid-December. Winter can start after that.

It should. The conjecture about locking through January is silly.

It does seem like this event is increasingly projected to pretty quickly rebound by mid month Dec. We'll see if the MJO has anything up its sleeve regarding a 2000 situation

Sweet as Jeff said this is how you run a November

Exchanging emails with Harv….

im calling for 80-100 inches of digital snow this season

This might help you out https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html