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GFS changes at H5 beyond our "storm" Sun/Mon or whatever are hilarious

Gefs improved

Here it is! https://bsky.app/profile/wxmvpete.bsky.social/post/3mcj3bnaps226

GFS was pretty robust for western CT. This kind of has some higher end potential as we close in. For now at least.

Do you have a Bluesky link? Would love to read your thoughts!

Holy shit. I’d have really enjoyed having you in my class. Hopefully you would have tolerated me.

Mets will offer him like $75m/yr and he'll bat .230 with like 15 HRs and 50 RBIs while he's there

Don't sleep on Sat. It's basically a mesoscale event. Could be nothing or a fast 3". Pretty significant FGEN values across multiple models. And it could come in multiple bursts predawn or daytime. My guess is CT or the HV is the winner, but a few runs have targeted CNJ to NYC. Could be a fun nowcast with low expectations. Contrary to what some say, this would have no trouble accumulating with 0.1" liquid per hour at 33F. Most will probably miss, but if you have the rates it will accumulate.

I'm in 9th, but thank you!

Are you really in 10th grade? That’s a classy post. You wrote what I was thinking.

Cmc is nice for SNE

Or you’re in a Speedo…

Cmc

It's wild how good the AIGFS looks at 500mb. NYC is again over 0.5 liquid from just the Sunday event and the precip. shield ticked slightly NW.

Lol

Ai gfs is comical. Spitting out almost an inch of liquid in eastern ma. The cave is going to be epic

One thing to monitor is that “kicker” If it comes in at a steeper trajectory that could broaden the trough and allow the lead wave to curl more northerly.

The way I see it. This is the normal typical nickle and dime event before the next bitter blast of cold. Next cold settles in and this time next week we are on the door step watching the first in a series of significant snowstorms that drop 6-10”+ of snow.

Lol.

The watching and getting emotionally invested (to a point) is fun for me though. Just wish we could bat 30-50% instead of 10%.

0.4" liquid in 6 hours showing up on globals and mesos. It's very isolated and variable in placement. But someone could get a surprise with some intense frontogenic banding on Saturday!

It doesn’t snow in Michigan

A huge shoutout to @high risk for showcasing how the models really work. I really appreciated his posts about highlighting the importance of how this current base state is unpredictable, leading to volatile modeling, how outputs are calculated, and what data goes into the model to produce those outputs. It's been really informative and I hope he keeps doing such great work.