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  2. You need the Pacific to back off in order for that to happen which is difficult with such an historic east based El Niño.
  3. Weeklies were cold last year and were correct. Not all the time, but more often than not. I specifically recall your posts in that regard.
  4. Weeklies should be taken with a grain of salt passed week 2 but it does show what a weak PV would do.
  5. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  6. I don't recall memories of this day (but I do remember 5/29/95 and 7/15/95) but being made aware of this some years later, pretty impressive storm which formed along a backdoor front.
  7. If you are going warm for December than why are you giving the week 3+ weeklies any credence?
  8. why do you believe the methodology they have employed is incorrect? is it because it results in a narrative and call for action that you oppose for unspecified reasons? can you provide some reasonable explanation even if you only have 33% of the data? that's an incredible amount of data, surely there MUST be SOMETHING systemic in the methodology you can point to that is scientifically invalid? your continued evasiveness on this issues is boring
  9. Interesting test case here of the physics vs AI guidance.
  10. Of course it does. It's time to pick up leaves!
  11. 42 degrees this morning. Any time Green Bay gets beat it always the officiating. Though they did miss two field goals. Thats basically why I don’t follow the NFL Football anymore because of the officiating.
  12. Not great trends for Halloween. Possible rain and around 60° for the festivities. Could be worse I guess.
  13. Today
  14. The exact locations of the +10 and greater departures are difficult to forecast until we are into the first week of the month. We have had 17 such months since December 2015 with departures exceeding +10 or greater for some portion of the CONUS. So December 2015 became a trendsetter and not an outlier. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5
  15. A SSW this early IS unprecedented
  16. Overnight 00z EPS jumps to 86% of it's members... Gefs now at 65%.. EPS looks impressive if you loop 10 and especially 50 mb.
  17. 48 when I left the house. Another awesome weather week ahead of us. Kids are starting to get ramped up for Halloween and Green Bay fandom is none too pleased with NFL officiating at the moment. I understand those two things are completely unrelated ha. Have a great week everyone!
  18. actually gonna sell an anomalous morch tier event (ez call always given how extreme that was) but suspect southern stream and pac dominance will keeps things steadily above average/mild
  19. Farmers' Almanac · Could Halloween’s winds hold a clue to winter? “Whatever way the wind blows on Halloween, it will blow that way the whole winter.” — Old Irish Weather Saying It’s folklore rather than a reliable forecast, but a fun reason to watch the rustling leaves this October 31! Will your trick-or-treaters need an extra layer or an umbrella? Have you heard this saying before?
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