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Didn’t check to see if it’s been talked about, but this little upper level low is disrupting the flow, today’s model runs trended farther S with this piece and the actual potential event as well

What is your call for up this way man?

RAP losing steam?

If it’s based on this weekend they are completely different setups. Besides this weekend was never a good chance! It had a high upside but the ens barely ever had a 30%+ of an inch!

Not one bit! Fake F’n news.

I saw it… but I don’t see this idea heavily represented anywhere trustworthy except from him. The idea being 1-3 and he seems locked in.

1st & Final Call (Parenthesis is potential; Bigger gap means higher boom/bust potential) Favored Models: Blend of EUROAI & RRFS (Experimental model that will replace NAM this spring) AVL: 3-6 (High:8/Low:2) CLT: 4-8 (High:10/Low:3) FAY: 6-10 (High:12/Low:4) GSO: 3-6 (High:8/Low:2) GSP: 3-6 (High:8/Low:2) GVL: 10-15 (High:20/Low:5) (Likely area to be sweet spot given model trends of last 48 hours. Will get longest duration of coastal banding due to strengthening/consolidating SLP and 850 low) HKY: 3-6 (High:10/Low:3) (Foothills away from the escarpment will have some additional forcing due to upslope. Also lee trough/frontogenesis forcing due to thermal gradient) ILM: 4-8 (High:12/Low:4) RDU: 4-8 (High:12/Low:1) (Area of higher boom/bust potential due to dry air infiltration from parent HP and coastal energy transfer. The Triangle will also be close to the edge of the coastal death band. Bust potential is likely being overdone but I am putting it in as models have shown it) VAB: 4-8 (High:12/Low:2)

Fair. Take the op guidance with a grain of salt tho. And if im going by surface maps alone, the aigfs and aifs have been respectable at range.

This type of cold hits different when there is snow on the ground. How deep winter should be. But I am soon ready for warmer weather and some stretches of nice spring like weather. That first stretch of 60's we get is going to be something.

Picked up a quick inch from the initial band, sun is out now just 2 miles west of the loop. We’ll see what the later stuff does as it swings through

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/172GeNykcS/?mibextid=wwXIfr Brad P’s thinking regarding the potential dry slot.

Light to moderate snow IMBY. It is very fine and not sticking yet. Sun was out and then it was not. It started snowing immediately after that.

If we are depressed, anyone look at the WB latest EURO for SE VA? NWS Forecast is 7-12.

Snow beginning, 29 degrees. Already have snow on the ground mostly, so everything will stick. We seem to get this and then I get a lull per my forecast.

We forget how difficult it is to get large snowfalls in the metros during La Ninas. Another 5"+ snowfall at DCA would make this winter join 2024-25 as the only Ninas to feature two such snowfalls since 1995-96. The airport has had only 7 snowfalls exceed that mark in 21st century La Ninas.

Yep here also

Just started in Kingsport, temp 30 dewpoint 15.

DuPage Duster

He was spot on - the lack of help in melting that we usually get not happening this time due to the prolonged cold is super rare and clearly something that snow removal operations here need and can usually rely on. It happening on the heels of an extremely unusual storm given the snow with sleet topper is quite a thing. I was not here in 2007 - for those that experienced that valentine's day sleet bomb, did it go cold for a week or two after locking all that ice in? And, hell, even that storm didn't have the base of snow under it that this one did, I don't think, from what you all who were here have talked about with it.

24F w DP of 20. 0.3"on pavement. Visibility of about one and a half miles. It's been a slow and steady increase in rates since 7AM.

we might have to start including ORF in the snow contest tie breaker. Funny when I lived there for 10 years it mostly sucked for snow. If you are a snow lover in ORF you need the patience of a monk.

CAMS (Short rangers) with the Kuchera method? Neither.... Ive only been here a couple years but I've spoken to a few who have been here a few decades.. Apparently no one remembers this. This is my new work computer wallpaper. I don't envy your job these past few weeks. This feels like it might be your first season on a weather board.....