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  2. Maestrobjwa
    I have a Mid-Atl bias--ninas are no good here, so yeah, lol
  3. smokeybandit
    Euro is now generally on board, too, though its snow maps look kind of goofy around the Palmer Divide
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect to do a pretty deep-dive on the RONI/ONI relationship in my outlook this year because I feel that is going to be even more crucial than modoki index to be perfectly honest. I don't care if the SST pattern looks modokiish if the west Pacific is a hot tub and we can't pop an appreciable Aleutian low.
  5. Damage In Tolland
    Broke into some solid sun now. What a difference
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    We'll see what happens. I think 1982-1983 is a best case scenario assuming El Niño gets as powerful as some are suggesting. Looking back at the local climo data....winter was even better than I thought. Three storms over a foot in my area. December/January/March were slightly above normal temps and February slightly below normal. Snow pack peaked at 26" on February 11th....bit more than last year.
  7. Damage In Tolland
    Cod fishy
  8. GaWx
    But this CFS run is still showing a RONI-ONI gap of 0.5C (+2.5 vs +3.0). That narrowing is <0.1 vs the JFM gap of 0.56.
  9. dendrite
    ineeddonuts
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not necessarily.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like that we seem to be closing the gap between RONI and ONI....I bet we see more of an Aleutian low/SE ridge response if that is the case. 82-83 had decent NE snowfall even though it was warm in the mean.
  12. 495weatherguy
    We can only hope. The promise of better weather this spring is reminiscent of the promise of a snow storm only 5 days away that never materializes.
  13. nycwinter
    this may have been the last winter day in the city until this fall..
  14. metagraphica
    Was gonna go out and do more yard work today. Too cold and biting with the wind, so I guess it's painting inside instead.
  15. GaWx
    Officially I see only 0.05” at RDU for May 1-2: https://kamala.cod.edu/nc/latest.cdus42.RDU.KRAH.html Also, I see only 0.63” at FAY vs 0.91” on the map: https://kamala.cod.edu/nc/latest.cdus42.FAY.KRAH.html It’s as if they put in the wrong map. Maybe that was a forecast map?? But it has GSO right with nothing. Here’s a link to the last 7 days rainfall, which shows 0.44” at RDU, 0.77” at FAY, and 0.16” at GSO: https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KRAH/2605031100.sxus52.html
  16. winterwx21
    Only 54 degrees here with the gusty winds. Nasty for early May. Looking forward to mid 70s tomorrow.
  17. ChescoWx
    Below is from Mount Holly - Is there one from State College? Thanks!
  18. snowman19
    Despite the wishcasting by a select few weenies on twitter trying their best to wishcast a super El Niño away by saying there is no atmospheric coupling, the actual facts and reality tell a completely different story….there is actually strong ocean-atmosphere coupling (Bjerknes feedback) and it is projected to stay that way:
  19. Today
  20. ChescoWx
    Final seasonal NWS reported snowfall maps
  21. psv88
    Next 2 weeks don’t look great. May have to wait until mid June for summer weather
  22. NorthHillsWx
    This is too much for Raleigh. I got 0.15” there is no way downtown got that much more. Also the farm in Louisburg had less than 0.20” and its SE of Louisburg on that map. So that is likely too high as well. Honestly cut these totals in half
  23. SnowenOutThere
    NGL if the models still support some snow falling in WV I'll be taking a nice hike out there
  24. GaWx
    Thanks, snowman. Indeed, it’s forecasting a 1982-3 redux as of now. The corresponding latest CFSv2 ONI forecast is at +3.0C, which is maintaining the recent ~0.5C difference between ONI and RONI:
  25. Maestrobjwa
    So torch east-based super followed by another round of cool enso (which always double dips) being the worst case scenario? Sounds like a warminista's dream, smh
  26. FXWX
    Could not agree more Tip. The numbers don't lie song is highly overrated! The subject take by "non-weather geeks" like most of my friends and family, is that this spring has largely sucked. I know spring in New England is more often than not crappy. But I'm just not buying this has been a great spring spin.
  27. snowman19
    The new CFS RONI forecast update is projecting that we at least tie (+2.5C) for the strongest El Niño on the RONI index, which was the 1982-83 super El Niño (also +2.5C). 1982-83 ended up being slightly stronger than 1997-98 on the RONI. The CFS has the traditional ONI peaking higher than the RONI for this event, but not by much….
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