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The coldest air mass so far this season is now overspreading the region. The temperature will tumble into the lower 20s by tomorrow morning in New York City. Many areas outside the City will see lows in the teens. Daily record low marks for December 5th could be challenged or broken in Bridgeport, New York City-JFK Airport, New York City-LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains. The weekend will be cool but dry. A fresh surge of cold air could arrive Sunday night. The ongoing stretch of below normal temperatures will likely continue into or through the second week of December. December 1-10 will be a solidly colder than normal period. The potential exists for the coldest first 10 days of December since at least 2007 (33.4°, 5th coldest December 1-10 since 2000). The five coldest December 1-10 periods since 2000 were: 1. 30.6°, 2002 2. 32.2°, 2003 3. 32.4°, 2000 4. 33.1°, 2005 5. 33.4°, 2007 All 5 of these cases had measurable snowfall in Central Park. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around November 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -43.70 today. That is the lowest SOI figure since February 9, 2024 when the SOI was -46.54. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.366 today.

It’s a travesty of justice. @stormtrackerwhen is he coming back?.

Yeah... it means anyone north of DC get a thicker cloud deck tomorrow.

Honestly, if Campbell ended up being the consolation prize in all this mess I would be okay with that.

The season is already getting to some, hate to see it.

Focus on the Norlun

Diet Coke ?

hrrr has continued to trend north EVERY run without fail. surely this means something lmao

Looked worse than 12z. GFS prob on crack.

Yes it did . It used to be Dec and Jan . Now if we get a few good weeks we’re lucky

Yes and yes

Who’s Barney?

Good trends! Also, I’m signing the petition for Zwyts to be here. And where is @mattie g???

Noise. There is literally no difference. Okay a tenth less here lol. If it wasn't such a minuscule amount of snow it would considered to be no difference.

Yes indeed...I just feel like a combo of temps almost always failing to get as cold as predicted, an ongoing breeze plus cloud cover coming in later will cap it. I was going to say 19...we'll see!

When you have multiple IPA’s…that’s when.

Probably redundant (and if so mods may delete this) but the 22z HRRR is a significant shift north, and it is still snowing at the runs end. Likely would amount to 2-2.5" in DC.

I'm watching The American Revolution, too!!

34/21

In all seriousness, snow ratios are very difficult to predict with the kind of accuracy we want. Your point about lift being displaced from the DGZ is a good one and probably worth not getting too hopeful of >10:1. But even if we don’t have beautiful dendrites, we should have plates and those are usually 10:1 or so. Needles are the danger zone…those accumulate like sand. Often 5-6:1.

CTP has the forecast low at 14 tonight for MDT. The remaining snow cover could help the temps to bottom out. Current dew point is 13 at MDT.

How and when were January and February ever not the top two? Outside of random years I guess

Shoot that POS.

Definitely.

18z euro just totally meh Sunday night.