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  1. Past hour
  2. The ridge is transient and in response to the tropical system. Nbd
  3. 47.2 in Muttontown & 48.4 in Syosset this morning.
  4. Guidance is pretty stacked towards this becoming a hurricane at some point. Also starting to look like this becomes the dominant system between it and the EPAC storm, which will have some lessening of shear than we were thinking yesterday.
  5. Sure did. Was standing outside with the dog when I took that picture and it felt like deep autumn and the sky had that late fall/winter crisp clear look. When I was outside last night and the wind was blowing I was thinking to myself, "I am not looking forward to any Arctic snaps where its 10F out with wind whipping"
  6. First morning that really truly felt like autumn.
  7. I wouldn't say that given major El Nino climo....I think lower in latitude has the best shot at above climo snowfall.
  8. Inching closer 44.1 this am in Arlington .
  9. We were really paid back 100 years later!!
  10. This is totally anecdotal, but I really doubt it considering the stretch from which we are just emerging. I think we are on par for some positive regression in terms of snowfall...I understand the CC-oriented counter to that, and it's perfectly valid, so no need to get into that...ultimately all we can do is guess, and that is mine.
  11. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  12. If that system goes west of us we will get SE flow and orographical uplift on the Blue Ridge. I could easily see 4-6" of rain with more along the crest.
  13. I know memories get tainted by time and misremembering…but i swear i remember most years as a kid trick or treating, there being leaf piles for us to jump in while walking around the neighborhood. This year the color is definitely earlier than the last few and looks like it could be a really good year with the exception of the same blight rob mentioned in some of ours too.
  14. Looks like October will def. be +NAO, which is good.
  15. Last night it was freezing! Quite literally. 32 on the nose.
  16. Very likely a wet winter coming up, question is whether we can time cold enough air with any of the storms. If we can get halfway decent cold air here once in a while, odds are good we get pounded at least once.
  17. I am back after a much needed vacation. Down to 44 here earlier this morning.
  18. Hopefully we can displace the ridge so far south this winter that we can pull off a Nina-like gradient pattern overlaid onto that diesel STJ....slightly further south 2007-2008
  19. My guess is I'll be tic higher than KASH, so about 32.
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