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  2. FlashFreeze
    I was in Lennox MA for most of the last two weeks and on six days the low was in the 20s and the rest except for Friday weren’t far from freezing.
  3. Torch Tiger
    it'll be November eventually :x
  4. Stormchaserchuck1
    Yeah there was a +500dm -NAO and near -500dm +PNA days before the Jan 2016 storm. One of the more extreme patterns on record.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Def. not this quickly, but it does stand to reason that CC will chip away at the bookends of the season first.
  6. psv88
    That’s why I said locally…I’m in western Suffolk
  7. michsnowfreak
    A shitty pattern for March snow in the 2020s does not mean nyc can't see snow in March these days. Really way too much stretching as always by bluewave. Ive had shitty Marches in the 2020s too outside 2023. I also saw 3.5" on Apr 17, 2020, 0.7" on May 11, 2020, 4.5" on Apr 20, 2021, 2" on Apr 18, 2022. Every winters pattern is different. Bluewave knows meteorology well but his "window" will always be smaller than everyone elses.
  8. SnowenOutThere
    Figured I should post my Climatology research project proposal here! If any mets want to weigh in on how to best accomplish it let me know (though it really isn't supposed to be a crazy project). Otherwise the literature review might be helpful for those who want to know a bit more about the NAO/PNA influence on snowstorm climatology. Please ignore the grammar too it was 11pm when I submitted it. Climatology Proposal AMWX.pdf
  9. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nov 30/Dec 1 +35 days Dec 15 +30 days Dec 31/Jan 1 +25-30 days Jan 15 +25 days Jan 30/Feb 1 +20-25 days Feb 14 +20 days Feb 28/Mar 1 +15-20 days Beyond Mar 15 +15 days That's only for a warm Stratosphere. Cold Stratosphere is +0days all the way across. Like a tornado squaring up the upper levels and ground layer.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    We ended up getting a western PV lobe to phase in, which ruined that storm...I remember DT gave up on winter after that .
  11. GramaxRefugee
    October total rainfall 3.85". Highest temp 86. Lowest 37.
  12. powderfreak
    This time of year seems to max out radiational cooling with the low surface moisture. Dry leaf litter under bare trees, absolutely zero evapotranspiration because everything is dormant. Frequent high pressure and low sun angle. This evening locally is classic. Edge of Stowe Country Club station is 39F while just up West Hill is 46F. I’m at 40F north of there. Stowe Hollow has a 52F vs 40F over a half a mile.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    He is one of those AI jockeys like SnowBirdBob and all of those fools.
  14. SnowenOutThere
    I'm not entirely sure, but it just gave me similar vibes to the 2023 "Christmas snowstorm" where yes there was a trough in the east, but if the axis of the trough is offshore than that means you get nothing but cold. Additionally, notice the depth of that trough and the NAO/AO domain. It's all wrong to get a major snowstorm as the whole upper 500mb pattern is displaced hundreds of miles east of where it would need to be. You also generally don't want such a deep trough as it means the pattern will likely destroy itself after that one shot at snow due to atmospheric transport of warm air to the poles by such an intense system. If you're interested in learning a bit more here's my current Climatology research project. Climatology Proposal AMWX.pdf
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the correction....what was it for Dec- March. so I can check my numbers?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, those are all warm ENSO events offered far less resistance to be the development of HLB...probably to an extremely neg AO season like those years.
  17. Stormchaserchuck1
    October is 45-60 days. November is 35-45 days, depending when in the month it happens.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree, here.
  19. Chris78
    The Commanders are like the way @Jidescibes model watching needing a trend. 1 step forward then 3 steps back.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That may very well happen, but I would think that is what guidance would be showing at this point, regardless.....first of all, those runs default towards ENSO in the longer term, secondly, they are usually adjust to stratospheric phenomena had a pretty lethargic pace. This is why I spent 5-6 months telling people that that big +TNH pattern was going to develop late last January, despite guidance looking to protract that mid month mild period at times.....slow to adjust to the reflection event that I knew was coming in July.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    45+ days for November.
  22. Today
  23. Paleocene
    I'm not sure why I'm watching this game. The eagles look like a jv squad
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it was tougher sledding down there, no pun intended....but we saw well over a foot just prior to xmas up here. I agree with most of what you say, but I just think there will be a bit more of a window this season than you do. We are probably pretty close on mean temp departure for the season, though.
  25. jaxjagman
    The SH breaking down you probably should expect a big ridge into Mongolia tho it seems to be just brief,still tho it shouldnt be that warm as being portrayed as some people are thinking into Nov
  26. yotaman
    New month, continue drought. Been 15 days since last rainfall. Beautiful fall days continue though. High 72, low 51
  27. yotaman
    End of month stats: Highest temp - 93 Lowest temp - 41 Highest dew point - 78 Lowest Dew point - 41 Rainfall - 3.29"
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