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Just not really seeing the corresponding pressure patterns in the North and South Pacific so far, in the mid latitudes. 1997 and 1982: notice how -SLP stretched in the Hadley Cell from 180E to 360E

It is coming. Hang on.

70/58

Sun popping out here, its a humid 73° now. Sweet

3.90" total at 2:30. Hope for 5.00" by Wednesday 8 pm.

The clearing line is like watching paint dry.

Total rainfall since last Thursday - 2.48".

GFS has us mostly drive for the 2 week period after Tuesday. And no big heat.

For our region a vast majority of it given the 5 day forecast. For the south I can’t answer that.

What a nice afternoon. Shut the pellet stove off last night and now its 75. This is whats going on around my house. Merlin app is fantastic.

First 80 of the season, and about as warm as I like it. When it comes to heat I’m a puss.

Massive +AAM spike coming and an El Nino standing wave is developing. It’s absolutely coupling (ocean-atmosphere) and coupling strongly Per Paul Roundy we are about to pull ahead of 1997

Some of the 12z models are interesting for Northern New England.. let's trend that west and bit colder..

I do wonder if a couple El Niño induced paste bombs are in store for next winter. Sure seems plausible looking out from here. The inflows into the lake this morning were incredible to watch, need some sun or that water is going to stay cold. A little surreal seeing so little traffic on the water for a holiday weekend.

Incoming Wake County.

Raleigh is finally getting in on the action!

There’s a lot of bipartisan chatter again about making DST year-round like they tried in 1974. That was a failure due to morning darkness leading to school children being killed. So, they prematurely terminated the experiment: https://washingtonian.com/2022/03/15/the-us-tried-permanent-daylight-saving-time-in-the-70s-people-hated-it/# The reason I’m posting about it here is because that would unfortunately mean all wx models coming out an hour later than they would during standard time in winter. Can you say 2AM 0Z Euro in winter? That would be absolutely horrible. The president, once again, calls for year-round daylight saving time Joe Gatling, a golfer and a gardener, favors year-round Daylight Saving Time. “This would give me more opportunities … in golf [and] gardening]that is a little bit longer, so I’ll go for it,” said Gatling. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/president-once-again-calls-round-213659665.html

added .30" for a holiday weekend total of 1.80" 2.30" since Thursday Have not been keeping track something like 1" for May before this much needed rain Next 10 days look very dry

Here's the ridge

It took awhile, but by last Tuesday, the models started to present a strong heat signal.

Getting brighter. Later afternoon should be nice. The yard is soaked. Ground completely saturated. Up to 66 now

The Met Office has now published an account of today's historic May heat. That account can be found at: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2026/provisional-spring-daily-temperature-record-as-heatwave-continues In terms of the impact of climate change, the Met Office explains: A climate attribution study published last summer by Met Office scientists found that the chances of surpassing the May temperature record have been increasing as our climate changes as a consequence of human greenhouse gas emissions. The study found that breaking the 32.8°C May record is around three times more likely now in our current climate than it would have been in a natural climate not impacted by greenhouse gas emissions. What was around a 1-in-100 year event is now around a 1-in-33 year event.

Very cool!

Models in the medium/long range missed the European heatwave, just like they recently caught onto this Canadian ridge in the next few days. They might be a little less reliable right now.

Love this kind of day.. Messed me up from some side work today apart from my main job... But enjoy just sitting on the porch listening to the light rain in the trees and gutters......Up to 3.18 for the event..