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Are you referring to the late Sept of ‘26 nor’easter? If so, I was just counting ones in October though I realize it was almost in Oct and very likely largely connected to the very strong Nino. I didn’t check Sept for any of those 9 analogs. So, if we count that one, does that reduce the chance for a 2nd E coast storm later this month? I never found two really notable E coast storms for the 9 analog years.

Based on 100% of the 9 very strong Nino analogs back to 1877-8 having a near E coast (SE and/or NE) storm of some kind in October, I’m leaning to cyclogenesis next week close enough to affect parts of the E coast. This could be a nor’easter, a TC, or hybrid. These include -early Oct 2015 highly unusual complex setup associated with a combo of well offshore Joaquin and a SE US ET upper low/stationary front resulting in devastating SC flooding rain -late Oct 1991 “Perfect Storm” hybrid in NE -late Oct 1982 strong nor’easter centered on mid-Atlantic that lead to a very rare Oct combo of a long duration of continuous rain, strong winds, and cold (40s) -early Oct 1972 very strong nor’easter that was worst Hatteras to NYC (both ~4”+ rain) -early Oct 1957 strong nor’easter hit Hatteras/lower mid-Atlantic hardest

I finally figured out your screen name. As always ……

There have been over a half dozen strikes on the east coast during the years you said were zero. A simple Google search into the seasonal hurricane archives could have told you that Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

DT and JB like this threat for the coast.

High of 92.5F here in upper NW. Still 78F.

It's an insane meteorological solution. The low I've been discussing in the long range thread somehow cuts off and generates its own cold air. No way its right but was funny to see. I'll miss the NAM.

Not yet. Maybe early next year will be baby number 2.

I am at 0.71” total. On Monday the QPF for me was forecasted to land just under 1.2”. Starting to rain again and temp has dropped to 38.

There are going to be multiple instances where arctic air will time well with moisture and the Sub will get totally annihilated by snow. This is no ordinary Nino. Stock up on multiple Jebman Shovels, your favorite foods, metric tons of IPA's, plenty of beer, salt and even a snow blower or two.

It’s not hard to research these days. Plus all bets are off with climate change regardless Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is not expected to end immediately, though scientists are actively tracking early signals that a shift could begin to take shape over the next few years . Oh and yeah that’s Fran 1996 Bonnie 98 Floyd 99 Isabelle 03

85 my high .

I'm afraid to say this as much as we need the rain, but I really just want a cool, fallish Saturday with deep blue skies. I really want to work on my shed. Had two straight rainy weekends.

It’s gonna rain all night there. Friday too. They have no choice. Thursday A chance of showers, mainly after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 70. East wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Thursday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 10pm. Low around 62. East wind 7 to 15 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Mid teens here

What this means is: Mid Atlantic will see more cold air intrusions, some of which WILL time with immense moisture to produce HECS in DC; Texas will get chilly but end up dry as crud. What else is new. So, in summary----- EXCITING atypical Nino Winter in the Mid Atlantic which will have frequent Siberian intrusions, some resulting in major snows, flooding rains in the Southeast, and cool weather in the Southwest and mostly dry (Texas is well west of The Plume), and the Midwest will be drier than normal, milder than normal, West and Pac NW will be milder with some storminess and the SNE/NE may see a few Nor'easters.

Get used to cold solutions, correcting warmer passing through the mid ranges

You may have already observed that correlation

Anyone else seeing windy conditions right now (9:50pm)?