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Woke up to a WSW like

I know its 5:24am… but the end of the CFS run is glorious on January 9th. [emoji1787][emoji1787] .

I can't tell if there is rain it, but definitely some flakes falling. Unfortunately, I am at 36 degrees, so I am sure that it won't last.

Euro and GFS looked good at 0z up here for Wednesday night, now the 6z cut back on the GFS, let's hope it's just off hour issues

Ya… ya know, typical for Nina? FFS…

32.3 degrees here at the moment.

OMG this thread has gone down memory lane. Don Polec was like the Weird Al of local TV news and was always hilarious to watch. Fun fact but KYW's (channel 3 was NBC back then) Trudy Haynes originally reported the weather on WXYZ-TV in Detroit back in the early '60s before she came here to Philly in the mid-'60s as a beat reporter - She just passed away a couple years ago at age 95.

3-4 inches forecasted now, Winter Storm Warning. 30.4.

Had a brief snow shower roll in, winds picking up.

00z Euro hinting a juicy clipper for Friday. The 00z GFS isn't buying it.

WB 0Z EURO for late week

I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he’s not counting weak phase 8 (inside circle). But even so, these had outside the circle phase 8 in Dec since 2001: 2017: 2009: 2007: 2002: @mitchnick

Looks like the cold for next weekend is basically up in smoke now. The 00z GFS is now 20 degrees warmer than it was for next weekend than it was last night at 00z. What looked promising somewhat is a dumpster fire for winter chances here into Christmas, if the models are correct. Deep Gulf of Alaska low flooding Pacific air across the lower 48, hostile Pacific, hostile Atlantic. It doesn't get much worse than that run.

Most places in this region are going to have above freezing max Ts on Monday. Maybe 40⁰ in NYC area. Temps in the wee hours are rising ahead of the Arctic front.

We Back?

A...clipper??

0z Euro shows a snow chance on Friday night.

TWO SNOWS WITHIN ONE WEEK TWO WEEKS AFTER I MOVE TO TAMPA. That’s it. I was the bad luck charm for Richmond. Wow.

0z Euro shows a snow chance on Friday night.

Probably too late to matter but Euro is a hold, maybe even a bit wetter than 18z. Don't have Kuchera but:

This has been a rather tough forecast, mainly due to the fact that this will be developing directly overhead. However, it's hard to ignore model trends across southern Virginia and the NC mtns. I am now beginning to wonder if this will just begin as snow for most, considering the current observations are running a bit colder than what guidance has been showing. If it does begin as snow, I expect some of the higher totals to verify. One thing I have noticed is somewhere across central/southern VA, some mesoscale banding will likely produce some efficient snowfall rates. This is noted in a band of stronger FGEN running west to east as pictured below. Rates within this zone will likely see 1in/hr at times. NBM probabilistic guidance supports this with an area of higher probabilities across southern VA/NW NC. Based on 01z NBM of 24hr snowfall greater than 4.0 inches is now at: DAN: 60% ROA: 80% LYH: 80% TNB: 70% A very sharp drop in probabilities occur along and south of the VA/NC border. However, probabilities for at least 1.0 inch is around: GSO: 60% RAH: 40%

There’s no question that the CAD wedge has been the big winner in the SE US so far this month. My area has had almost every day mainly cloudy, rain on most days, and every day 12/1-7 has had highs only in the 50s! That’s very hard to do on every day for a week in early Dec with normal highs 10 degrees warmer. As a matter of fact, it’s so hard that this is the first time on record that it has happened with records going all of the way back to 1874! Interestingly, the highs have ticked down each day this month: 59, 58, 55, 54, 53, 52, and 50. I see that GSO has had all highs only in the 40s Dec 1-7. I wonder if that’s ever on record happened there. Anyone know? Edit: If that’s not enough, the forecast is calling for 2 more days of 50s highs, which will make it Dec 1-9! Same idea for GSO with 2 more sub 50 highs for Dec 8-9! Edit: I just checked GSO. Only once on record back to 1903 did they have not get out of the 40s Dec 1-7: 1910. However, they did get to 50+ on Dec 9th, So based on the forecast, Dec 1-9th, 2025 will be the first on record not having even one day get out of the 40s at GSO!

Nice

So snow to our south(way to our south), and snow to our north, and snow to our west, and snow to our east out at sea,…is the new paradigm? Ya…that’s just called bad fortune imo.

We had one here in 2017 and NYC had one last year. Sucks there.