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Yeah recent winters have really softened a decent number of posters in here. It’s not necessarily meant as an insult either…you can understand it somewhat….you invest time in tracking stuff but when you go through a tough stretch, it wears on you. Then you also benefit from lower heating bills and less cleanup and house maintenance. But some of us are true sickos and despite that, we’re not gonna root for spring in mid-February.

Not quite sure what to make of that. On the one hand, it looks like the NA is less favorable with lower heights up around Greenland, whereas the other day or so it looked better. On the other hand, the overall heights are not bad, relatively "flat" over much of the US (and no big southeast ridge). Plus, there appear to be lower heights on this side of the pole and a bit of a 50/50 trough. Seems like that could perhaps at least keep some chances for cold incursions from decent high pressures in Canada. ETA: While there were no specific threats that seemed evident in today's deterministic ops runs, some threats have appeared in the guidance on several occasions lately in this time period. For instance, yesterday's 18Z GFS had what looked like a couple or so decent shots. Those were gone today but as long as we can keep seeing those show up it would be nice, and hopefully have one or two really take shape as it gets closer.

I want my 2 degrees back damnit!

There was about a 12 hour period from 9pm last night to 9 am this morning where it looked like several models were pickup up on a partial phase and solid trend north. And then as often happens reality set in with the 12z's and it's been downhill since.

Steve D is going to be right. Models are going south and weaker.

NAM is a decent rainer for all of us. Which we need badly. Is what it is.

I got to 35.6 today, but it actually felt ok, cloud cover all day so not surprised we didn't get higher. Someone mentioned Danbury airport was north of 84, it's actually south of it, but by less than a mile, unless the ob station is north of it, just an FYI.

Blame the perfect track, lol

I don’t need it to be 5 degrees every morning but I’m certainly not ready for spring. Guys, this is New England. Let’s get another good storm.

Whelp... Not much discussion about actual long range threats, just a ton of elephant dancing. So, shit the blinds?

Winter is probably not over yet, even though it may seem like it looking for specific winter storm threats on recent guidance. The overall advertised longwave pattern going forward is not bad. We don't always need perfection mid to late winter to get snow.

Yeah, that's been the theme regarding it all Winter basically.

Tornado warnings in Texas. Won't be long until it's Springfield.

Its still a messed up look.The CFS is showing the tropical forcing into the WP into IO which is from Rossby and Kelvin Waves,so its more than likely gonna cause destructive interference with the MJO signal,which will more than likely go into the COD

I get the vibe that winter may be over for us in terms of snow. I certainly didn't mind the warmer temps today, and my furnace is thankful as well.

Leave the roads of salt...60s by mid week...I'll be breaking the motorcycle out of hibernation. Today reminded me how much cold weather and lack of sun makes me depressed. Hiking in the warm sun madey mood 5x improved.

northern stream looks a bit flatter than 18z so far on the NAM, cant imagine that bodes well for snow up here

Nice story. @coastalplainsnowman I was at work near the Metropark Station in Iselin of Woodbridge Township, NJ. Hit like a wall. Was not forecasted well. My company waited a bit too long to dismiss us. Roads were near gridlocked at Metropark. Took backroad routes to get home rather than get on the GSP, which was crawling, at best. Occurred during that big-snowstorm "drought" from PD I in February of 1979 to the 1990s. I have notes on it somewhere. I think I got in the low 20s inches.

I agree with the NAO and i DO agree with the wave lenghts,but when you see a Rex Block into where i mentioned above this typically is a +PNA,it would take strong -NAO to counter that.It's one reason why last spring our severe season went to crap after a early start,this can cause the Jet Max to shit further north into spring,its one of the reasons with our severe shifted into the OV

I just realized two of those stretches were from 1960-61. That had to have been a legendary winter. I was at BWI and it looked patchy even though my family’s area still has very solid coverage. So I think 12z tomorrow will report a trace. But it was a very memorable run.

Awesome, lol Guess it would depend on how much rain we get tomorrow?

Hope everyone is, and has been, doing well. Just finished a short write-up on this 11th anniversary of the 2015 Valentine’s Day Blizzard—last of the four major SNE snowstorms that buried the region. https://x.com/tbrite89/status/2022830263093395652

Have yet to hit 40 this month, 39 best I've done lol

50 my the high at the house today. The snow on the west-facing garden is about 80% gone. And really no signs or hope of a winter storm in the next week and a half. Time is starting to tick quickly.

Like 6 weeks and a few days and the 798hr CFS will be out to May 1