All Activity

Undoubtedly related.

We have had smaller events like the 6z Euro presently shows for the 2nd system. But it’s rare to get a 12”+ like a few of the OP runs have been showing only 2 days after another system. That’s why I am going with an ensemble mean blend right now for the 2nd system. But since nothing is impossible, I am watching to see if the ensemble means move toward some of the more amped solutions in coming runs. Really volatile and delicate set up.

That little block south of James Bay is really saving our bacon during a bonafide Pacific trough onslaught.

Timing these seems tricky. Is Friday more Friday night into Saturday? And then Sunday night/ Monday or more Monday into Tuesday?

^Pretty warm look. Models haven't really been verifying that pattern this Winter though - let's see if it holds as we get closer, but +nao/+epo combo can be pretty warm and sustained for a little bit of time.

PRO: EPS mean being more aggressive than the operational version at this range is typically a red flag .. CON: however, to the straw man, having the ens mean more impressive than operational was also prevalent at this sort of range prior to the end January phantom bomb too. It didn't end well for the ensembles. Particularly in the EPS back then. CON: If it were not for the -PNA canvas I'd have less issue with this has value. PRO: The 00z CMC ensembles being hugely more bullish than the prior 12z mean is. PRO: While the 00z GEFs were still not very interested, the 06z made a significant step toward more concern. I don't think that's a trivial or unimportant. PRO: Sneaky aspect about the pattern foot ... the flow is both progressive, while relaxed in gradient. Of the two, the latter is a bigger positive than the former takes away. It's interesting ( actually ) to see that concurrent physical state in the field, but there is in fact less 60N to 35 N ambient gradient, which allows for more timely/delicate wave harmonics to get set up. This whole system seems to be nested in that favorable temporal dimension ... any later in date or early, it doesn't avail of that and ends up probably sheared/stretched and annoying. CON: Seasonal dearth of coastal storm types. This doesn't intrinsically instruct this thing for or against occurring, but the consistent no-gos do suggest something's going on that is preventative - identifying what that is, and if it is less effective in this case would be interesting. Lastly ... kind of a PRO. The hemispheric PV is either explicitly anchored, or implicitly attempting to do so, depending on guidance sourced and cycle/run, on our side of the NH. This is also somewhat sneaky and unnoticed, but it matters because if it were situated over on the other side while a very robust -PNA ... ongoing, we probably don't have any of this in the first place. 50/50... We could certainly see a strong system miss, or impact.

EURO is the least impressive in general with the two follow up potentials.

looks like NNE gets mostly screwed. sweet

If it’s going to happen, it’ll be soon. Pretty clear indications here:

The 6z Euro showed a big improvement and that model has stunk lately too.

GFS gives my area a foot between Wednesday and Friday.. then if we can get Sunday night into Monday.. would be epic

End of the EPS run which fits nicely into the phase 6 look.

Friday is interesting. Euro is kind of a mess but the other guidance is decent. Sort of a SWFE look. Might be a wet snow or mix at coast for awhile

MJO is taking too long to get to phase 7. If it takes 5 more days to reach 7, with a 5 day lag (guessing here) we are talking the 13th before we flip colder. Really late in the game for the MA.

I'm not trying to imply that it will necessarily rival that stretch on a per inch basis, but I think it does help to validate the use of that season as an upper tier analog. That was a very anomalous period.

True... just noticed that Euro AI and GFS argue for warning snows Saturday.

I get it, I just hold that at a different level because those storms were massive.

Fire season has arrived.

Nah

You guys should be good for a few I think

You are a bit better off being further west because it's attenuating as it comes eastward. 06z EURO ticked back N a bit, at least.

The ICON FWIW

6z GFS was solid. ICON looked like it was going to improve over 0Z. Of the operational runs, only the EURO showed nothing. Either we all hail EURO in the end or all other models end up closer to correct. Still a lot of time of course.

Certainly going to be close for folks like you and me.