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  2. high risk
    I fully agree that any storms tomorrow afternoon that form have real severe potential. I don't see smoke being a major factor in our area; HRRR shows most of the smoke (both at the surface and in the column) retreating to the northeast. It warms us up to 95! I think you're on the right track with the warm mid-level temps hurting us, and the mean flow somewhat perpendicular to the lee trough also argues for more scattered coverage.
  3. Stormchaserchuck1
    Will definitely be interesting to see how it progresses through the rest of this year with Super Nino! Battle of forces! If the PDO holds neutral or negative through the Winter it's probably going back to negative after this year. I don't intuitively feel like we will see a lot of -500mb in the North Pacific this year, but I could be wrong!
  4. EasternLI
    Actually, I think that makes a lot of sense. As the long term trend of the H3 PDO had been signaling something similar. The biggest question IMO, is do we see a change going into the 2030's. Mixed feelings on that.
  5. high risk
    That's not true. Other than some air quality models, the RAP and HRRR are the only standard forecasting models that explicitly account for smoke.
  6. SACRUS
  7. raindancewx
    The PDO should continue to erratically weaken with this event toward neutral. You probably will see it move slightly positive in a few months from Oct-May, but on net I still expect it to be about neutral. I've always found if PDO & Nino 1.2 are opposite states in October, that's when you start to see rapid regression of the PDO toward Nino 1.2. But the movement toward the 1.2 state is sort of dependent on far out 1.2 is from local averages and the PDO baseline. 1.2 is where water below the surface comes up and fills into the rest of the ocean which changes the dynamics in the North Pacific eventually. With more storminess in the North in fall-spring, its harder to change what areas of water are warmer/colder than average from sunlight/high pressure (almost no sunlight in Fall-Spring in the North, especially if stormy), so at that point you're seeing current driven changes. With only ~8 hours of day light at 50N in winter, relatively rapid fluctuations in SSTs v. means have to be tied to storminess/current changes. Globally, July SSTs look like a 1972/1991/2023 blend to me, with 2015 in there weakly too. 1997 had a very positive +PDO already by July, as did 2014. 2015 had so much warm water in the N. Pacific that is sort of mechanically forced the PDO negative by making the cold tongue east of Japan warm too.
  8. CAPE
    The usual. Congrats eastern PA/NJ.
  9. SACRUS
    Today's Highs (smoke mostly cleared north of phl) New Brnswck: 89 EWR: 88 LGA: 88 PHL: 88 TTN: 87 BLM: 86 TEB: 86 NYC: 86 JFK: 86 ACY: 85 ISP: 84
  10. CoastalWx
    Probably won’t happen
  11. Stormchaserchuck1
    Honestly the pattern since 1998 looks like a Hadley Cell expansion, which you see in both the North and South Hemisphere, which usually points to equilateral Pacific as a main cause
  12. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think there are global things in motion/phase, and you see this reflected in the PDO. I agree SSTs are secondary to air patterns.
  13. Stormchaserchuck1
    PDO is less related to ENSO than people think. Maybe more so west-based events correlate, but east-based events primarily effect the North Pacific High
  14. LakePaste25
    IMO, I think of the PDO like snow cover. If a large area has deep snow cover (or lack thereof), it can enhance (or weaken) a polar high, which can impact an individual storm track. But it can only do so much. If you have a cutter going into ORD, snow cover in new england or the mid atlantic won’t stop it from cutting. And over time, as we know, those repeated cutters will weaken the snow cover. So think of the super Nino as the pattern driving the cutters, and the -PDO as the snow cover. The super Nino will continuously override it over time with a zonal jet until it flips to +PDO. I know this is not a perfect analogy because El Niños mean less cutters literally. But you get the idea.
  15. EasternLI
    Ah, but are we talking sst pdo, or upper air pdo (like the one I posted)?
  16. snowman19
  17. CAPE
    Good watch for Os fans. Not that we need a dose of reality, but this is good stuff, if not depressing.
  18. vortex95
    Highest gust on record for the summer set in July 1996, correct? They had PL at the time IIRC. And I think this same storm system resulted in record flooding in Quebec.
  19. vortex95
    Coldest I could find outside mtn location in New England is 47 at Fox Brook ME.
  20. eyewall
    Oh please let this verify!
  21. vortex95
    Recall during the Olympics in China, the smoke pollution was never called such? You would get official statements like, "it is mist" or "it is getting ready to rain."
  22. Today
  23. vortex95
    I agree it is not as bad as 2018, but when you talking tenths of deg when it comes to exceeding records, it does matter, and the longer the period, the more this drift is a problem when talking avg temps. 1 F bias does not sound like much for a single day, but it is big over the course of a month, and keeps increasing the longer you go.
  24. EasternLI
    Personally, I have a sneaking suspicion that the reason for that is a long term deep multidecadal -pdo state (since 2000). Which is evident on the H300 PDO plots (image below). I'm wondering if this might mitigate the super el nino effects somewhat. As there is research out there suggesting that possibility. Sort of would explain the lack of the north Pacific low thus far... If / when one would develop. It would explain it being weaker than one would expect in a super el nino according to said research. This is also quite interesting...
  25. vortex95
    If it thick enough, it does. Put it this way on an ideal radiation cooling night, if there was a layer of thick smoke at 20,000 ft, do you really temps woild drops as low as if there was no smoke? Yes, the SW/LWIR physics are not the same as WV clouds, but it is still a cover, so to speak. Why did BOS only hit 90 on 7/14 when 97 was fcst?
  26. vortex95
    Today it was DC's turn for thick smoke. VIS at KDCA got as low as 1.25 mi and VV restriction of only 200 ft! METAR KDCA 171252Z 00000KT 1 1/2SM FU VV020 28/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP183 T02780167" CoastalWx, remind you of doing TAFs for India? Every night, the VIS like clockwork would drops big time to 1/4 mi or less from smoke at so many airports, not from wildfires, but industrial pollution.
  27. CAPE
    I need a slow moving tropical depression. Just over 7" of rain here the last 4.5 months.
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