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Probably more like 72 hours and I don't care if anybody comes with that superstition shit. Around that time we could be talking about 2 separate events.

Go Bills!

Good analysis lol

Euro’s got it but better for north. Signal’s there.

This is basically what I was saying earlier. I don't like these scenarios as shown. I'm just going forward thinking things will change

Just turned on lights the room we are in got very dark. Snow flying.

There will probably be a decent stripe or snow well north in NNE north of the slow moving front.

Not sure if there are any specific papers or write-ups on these, but the two best examples of a "ULL event" I can think of would be the Feb. 9-10, 2010 storm and the Jan. 26, 2011 storm (perhaps the 2011 event more than Feb. 2010, though both involved that). But overall, my understanding is that it's related to the instability, cooling aloft, and banding that can set up with a strong ULL vort going through.

We know how Ginx loves his H5 anomalies.

Meh. Warm air winds this run.

Also did not know you went to UVA. Lived in the upper JPA zone my whole time after first year. Quite a bit cheaper

Just keep deepening it and good things happen.

It’s pretty uncanny (at least so far) how close we’ve been following the 16-17 La Niña evolution….weak Niña, very strong -IOD in the fall, now the “under the radar” EWB and SOI spike right around the same times in January. Then the big WWB afterwards and total La Niña collapse….assuming this one (WWB) ends up being comparable to 2017. This latest EWB and SOI spike definitely did some damage though, huge SST drop in region 3.4 with the upwelling and there’s real healthy tropical instability waves showing up on the new SST charts

Snow flurries in Frederick, probably the most I'll see this month....

We would need 16" more to get to that and about 21" more to reach average. A few moderate systems or one big one can get us there

I weigh it, but I was simply posting what it had.

Without a good BZ there’s only so much this can do

I must say, even though I usually post horrible takes, the Euro is quite cold in the long range and the latest model suite doesn't dump a trough in the west after the 3rd week of january. Stays very cold, with waves riding along the arctic boundary. That depiction looks similar to 2014 and 2015 winters. Obviously I don't think the overall outcome will be the same, but hard to deny that it looks like very cold air is coming and several chances for precip.

Well.. I was joking, however I really don't trust anything AI. I know it has scored well, but that's an average, not necessarily for the sensible weather in our area. Just haven't seen it perform really any different than others

And just like that sun came back out temp above freezing, snow disappeared.

Leaning heavily towards a Banner Elk weekend (Wed-Sun). Just seems like Miller As don’t exist anymore. More importantly, cold air never meets up with moisture east of the peaks. Jan 2022 remains the last meaningful event.

Holy wind

Not that we care about a d7 op sfc map, but that’s why I joked only 28 runs to go.

Speaking of which do you have any resources on storms like this? I got stuff like the December events (jet steak WAA FGEN) figured out mentally when tracking but not really anything like this where it seems all vorticity driven and how that ends up producing snowfall. Would love it if you could explain those differences or recommend some reading