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PDO isn't as strongly connected to ENSO as you would think.. here are the Strongest El Nino's. 2 other areas in the globe have bigger anomalies

Ready to garden variety

Same , good rumble here 2 minutes ago or so/ 51F .23" so far, more thunder as I type this.

March 31 1896: A strong snowstorm dumps 13.5 inches of snow at Maple Plain. Vivid lightning is also in the storm with 10-12 flashes per minute. Visibility was down to less than one block. The high temperature was 57 at Maple Plain the day before. 1843: The low temperature at Ft. Snelling plummets to -11. For Tuesday, March 31, 2026 1890 - Saint Louis, MO, received 20 inches of snow in 24 hours. It was the worst snowstorm of record for the St Louis. (David Ludlum) 1954 - The temperature at Rio Grande City, TX, hit 108 degrees, which for thirty years was a U.S. record for the month of March. (The Weather Channel) 1962 - A tornado struck the town of Milton, FL, killing 17 persons and injuring 100 others. It was the worst tornado disaster in Florida history. (David Ludlum) 1973 - A devastating tornado took a nearly continuous 75 mile path through north central Georgia causing more than 113 million dollars damage, the highest total of record for a natural disaster in the state. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - March went out like a lion in the northeastern U.S. A slow moving storm produced heavy snow in the Lower Great Lakes Region, and heavy rain in New England. Heavy rain and melting snow caused catastrophic flooding along rivers and streams in Maine and New Hampshire. Strong southerly winds ahead of the storm gusted to 62 mph at New York City, and reached 87 mph at Milton MA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - March went out like a lion in eastern Colorado. A winter-like storm produced 42 inches of snow at Lake Isabel, including 20 inches in six hours. Fort Collins reported 15 inches of snow in 24 hours. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Centerville UT. Albuquerque NM received 14 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced severe weather from North Carolina to Pennsylvania. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 76 mph at Cape Henry VA. While squalls blanketed northwest Pennsylvania with up to 9 inches of snow, thunderstorms in eastern Pennsylvania produced golf ball size hail at Avondale. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - The month of March went out just as it came in, like a lamb. Marquette MI, which started the month with a record high of 52 degrees, equaled their record for the date with a reading of 62 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 2010 - Jacksonville, Florida's, record streak of days with high temperatures below 80 degrees comes to an end at 105 days. It was also Jacksonville's first 80 degree reading of the year. The previous latest first 80 degree day was on March 14, 1978.

Feb 2002 -1.51, Feb 1957 it was -1.57....

thunder here

Yeah we've had a lot of warmer days

PDO was only -1.01 for February....I don't get the reluctance to fathom a flip in the face of a strong El Nino.

People saying "I don't see any sign of the PDO flipping"...no shit, we don't see any sign of the El Nino yet. It's like convincing yourself on the ocean that it's going to remain snowing before the low comes closer and the wind flips onshore.

Time to charge up the camcorder

IMO if this is a “high-end” strong to super (+2.0C) El Niño, it’s going to flip the PDO positive

Had a rumble of thunder this morning. Thus concludes t-storm season 2026.

I agree if we approach 2.0, then the PDO will flip.

We'll see. I'd bet against it, but my early guesses are often wrong because they're just that....guesses.

I am NO enso expert, not even close, but I remember a handful of years ago, they were hyping a STRONG (I cant even remember if it was Nino or Nina) event and it failed so bad it was either a cold/warm neutral. Not saying I think this El Nino fails, just that it seems way early to be SO confident in a strong one.

8 >70 here 71 / 51

EWR: 2.8 inches NYC: Trace

Happy birthday, little snowmanette! Our youngest will be turning 25 this year. Holy crap. She was actually due to enter the world on 9/11/2001 but the day's events were enough that she came a few days later. Just hard to believe that was 25 years ago. Where does the time go?

No warming or cooling is my point you miss - just typical cyclical normal climate changes FTW!!

I’m starting to think strong is probably the floor with this event. Modeling has very significant “twin” TC development on both sides of the hemisphere

Upglide right over that boundary

So choosing 2 data points out of a possible 335 to make a trend without any uncertainty analysis is good while taking all 335 with a robust uncertainty analysis is cherry-picking? Make that make sense. And let me preempt your gaslighting. I didn't pick the 335 data point subset or claim that it would be sufficient to draw conclusions about whether the planet was warming or not. You did.

Got 0.30" of rain overnight. A couple stronger cells with vivid lightning passed just barely north, got a good view.

Looks like it’s raining sort of where it needs it most ? relative to drought ballyhoo

Oh I’m sure it’s cruel blue balling … but we dream