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The record WWBs got going back in January which is pretty early for an El Niño leading to speculation early on that this one has pretty good potential if follow up WWBs become established next few months to keep the ball rolling so to speak.

By June it will be hot enough but costal sections during April and May have to deal with the cold waters and marine air.That's why the best months for pleasant weather is mid September to mid November.Here is Central PA it is beautiful in the Spring. No water within 150 miles!!!

First spring season for you in the northeast? This is the normal spring weather north of DC...warm shots across the bow to let us know summer is coming, but months of back and forth before sustained warmth, which some years doesn't come until early June. Anyone expecting sustained warmth before June needs to head south of DC

My point is that the correlation of strength of left side MJO in spring and later El Nino peak is low. It doesn’t tell us much. I’m thinking low end strong RONI best chance as of now.

wasn't talking about mby specifically which has never been in the game

we’re not in the game.

Andy says the MJO enhance isn’t even necessary in this case given the other factors “And if you want to see a substantial MJO event to predict a strong Niño (even though it's not necessary)”

latest from SPC Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes (possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating.

blessed

Many strong left side MJO in April/May didn’t go superstrong:

Yea, 95 was a decent Pacific analog, but I didn't care for it in the polar domain.

Beautiful Spring day out there! 45F/Cloudy, breezy with some decent gust...

It is literally almost 40° colder here than it was at the same time yesterday. I'm good with it. In my family we have a word for this kind of weather. We call it "April"

After the fruit sets, it hardier. Bloom stage is fragile.

“Still looks like we have a chance for twin TCs in the West Pacific soon. Perhaps even triplets, with a second system in the Southern Hemisphere. Regardless, the ongoing westerly wind burst (WWB) looks to be enhanced out there, further enhancing the downwelling Kelvin Wave that's growing. Also looks like weak trades will propagate east in the medium range, and we may start to see more substantial surface warming of the East-Central Pacific soon as the climate system evolves towards #ElNiño.”

The other thing is that we are starting to see more of these record breaking 500mb ridges even when ENSO isn’t as overwhelming. This winter was one of the rare weak La Niña winters like 1995-1996 with 500mb ridges over the Bering Sea, Baja California, and Greenland. Notice how much more overpowering the 500mb ridges were this winter leading to the record warmth out West producing the 2nd warmest winter on record for the CONUS.

Water temps to our north east, especially in Atlantic Canada are extremely cold after a very cold winter up there. So the cold wants to bleed south west. We need a big ridge to overpower the cold bleed. Once that happens it’s game on. .

On the way to perhaps a healthy ~+1.7c RONI Modoki similar to 1957-8. Nice!

I think we have to closely compare this with 2023-2024 and remain vigilant and mindful as to what the displacement of warmth in the Pacific basin denotes....may not be as simple as "modoki, disrobe". It won't be as bad as that year because the Pacific is changing, but I wouldn't lock in a full-fledged modoki yet, either.

I'm not talking about a monthly temp anomaly, April will finish above like last month. Take today, currently 42, wonderful spring weather, correct? Next week high of 48 for next Wednesday, another wonderful spring day, haha. There are cooldowns in the warmth, despite the monthly anomaly being above. Do we wash the cooldowns out?

That screams a Miller A pattern with the gulf open for business.☃️

Given the colder waters this year I'm a bit surprised-I was planning on back door hell

The last time they changed location was late 1930s/early 1940s, I think. Before that, it was in Center City. The EURO shows sustained warmth coast-to-coast (see @bluewave's post in page 2). We've been in that pattern since early March.