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January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion
NorthArlington101 replied to snowfan's topic in Mid Atlantic
Well... can't say the ICON isn't consistent. -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Lol. this brings back good memories, but Ephrata (my school district) was often the last to cave. I think they used the same playbook as CTP is often accused of. We'd be lit up because everyone around us was closing, and we were stuck at 2hr delay. -
Icon opening 12z with a foothills special
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12z models are now wetter again.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
pasnownut replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Now you got me thinking, maybe it was OPERATION ALERT for I105. -
A few days ago that was a rainer.
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Our lord and savior the icon
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
WxWatcher007 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Thaws are normal as you know so on one hand I'd rather have this now than peak climo in a few weeks. But that also means we have to produce during that time. I'm still cautiously optimistic, but keeping up with climo once you're behind (which a lot of people are) is an uphill battle. Especially this decade. I do like seeing continued activity on the models. Tbh, I've been more checked out here in CT lol. -
Better yet at 174
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Some BIG parking lot mounds my area. They will be around for a while. Plowed areas in my neighborhood likely gone by the weekend.
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Icon at 162hrs looks not so bad. Let's see how it goes.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
dryslot replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Its a few torchy days up here above but looks like after Tuesday next week we start going the other way a bit back to normal. -
The GFS and ECM ensembles continue to be strongly unsupportive of a snowstorm not week. It's a little surprising considering the forecasted high amplitude longwave trof in a favorable position. Right now there is way too much modeled vorticity in the Lakes region with one shortwave after another dropping through Michigan or southern Ontario keeping low surface pressure over the Great Lakes. The ECM is particularly hostile to a coastal snowstorm. The GFS at least looks marginally workable. It's yet another reminder how the specific evolution of the 500mb height field is critical for snowstorms and the long range 500mb anomaly charts are poor predictors for snow.
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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Itstrainingtime replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
WSBA also had Operation Snowflake! And yes, I would wait anxiously when the new update would come on and the guy would say "we have a long list of schools that were previously delayed that have now decided to close." I used to get mad, Octorara was always the first to close followed by Pequea Valley. Of course, as an adult, it's easy to understand why they were closed. Fortunately, Penn Manor was "rural enough" that we closed more often than not. I got really fired up when Hempfield closed and Penn Manor didn't. Stupid Hempfield. Yeah @Mount Joy Snowman I'm looking at you right now. -
Only snow left by me is the piles left by the snow plows cleaning out the parking lots.
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
WinterWolf replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
It’s all good..I’m actually looking forward to it..feels nice for a change. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
SouthCoastMA replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Patchy snow in the yard now..ready for a salt cleanse and reset. Looking forward to the parakeets for a couple days/nights -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
WinterWolf replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
It’s a little more than that bro…but whatever. Long way to go bro being it’s 1/8…and that’s keeping it real too. -
@40/70 Benchmark I’m assuming you disagree with Eric’s take that there’s going to be a big SPV strengthening then coupling with the troposphere leading to +AO/+NAO late winter into spring?
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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
Kitz Craver replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
No need for the wrist wringing over a few degrees? It’s going AN, time to accept. -
January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread
CoastalWx replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Just keeping it real -
Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs
Itstrainingtime replied to MAG5035's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
We got spoiled by so many big daddy storms over the past 15-20 years that a lot of younger snow freaks think it's much more common than what it really is. Having said that, you're right. It seems like forever since a true Miller A came lumbering up out of the Gulf and headed for the benchmark. I think we're due for that... -
The 16-17 Niña matched this one pretty close….weak Niña, very strong -IOD that peaked in the fall, then a total Niña collapse in January, 2017 with a massive WWB and a record SOI crash (remains to be seen if this one has the big SOI crash and record WWB comparable to that January)…. @PhiEaglesfan712
