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This is still pinned. Idk it could be a generic hoping to see a squall thread

Can one of the mods put a weenie tag next to the title of this thread?

I feel like we’ve learned a fair bit about the character of this threat last night. GFS and EURO outcomes at 6z really aren’t that far apart, even in terms of distance. Storm has maybe a 6-8” max for those perfectly in its crosshairs but otherwise it’s gonna be pretty standard despite the awesome h5 look. We’re praying for the deform to cash in and missing all of the WAA. Tricky.

2” from what?

The GEFS and EPS are still an open wave frontal boundary evolution. The very early mid level cut off over the southeast is just a potent meso vort traversing the boundary. It doesn’t allow for a bend back or strengthening of the already diffuse BZ… So on top of all the limitations—you’re not gonna get the mid level magic out of this either.

1.67", went outside this morning to let the dog out in rain and sleet

Lots to like in that overnight guidance. The Euro op has quite a bit of support as well. It’s been a while since we’ve had a Manitoba Mauler. Just a little more digging south and west and boom!

It’s kind of cool that there’s so much uncertainty. Given the persistent weak solutions, I would have to think it will be weak. But sometimes these things have a way of returning to what they were showing initially. Probably the second system is going to be better. The CPC flagged that potential a couple of days ago and if it’s a swfe it’s probably a lot less complicated

i share the sentiments from the notes by my nearest cocorahs reporter.

Stick to weather. Something you know. There your observations are spot on 25% of the time.

Looks like the line might kinda split those of us in or near the city. Oh well.

Yeah agree. When I see this consolidated, beefy vort swinging NE I wouldn’t think it’s going to get stretched out like Gumby 6hr later. I mean, maybe it has the right idea, but I wouldn’t put my eggs in that solution basket yet.

I just saw that someone started a thread for the 15th..........

Heck of a way to run a +PNA

Ended up with 1.66" of rain.

The GFS upgrade back in 2019 caused it to incorrectly forecast KU snowstorms at times when there was no other model support. This problem still hasn’t been addressed since it may just be an inherent model bias. We are coming up on the 1st anniversary of its 964mb benchmark blizzard that never occurred last January 12th which the Euro forecast correctly showed was a GFS model error. https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/ For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”

That really was PD2 and then some. 2’ down and way more to come lol.

You got as much rain in 24 hours as we’ve had last 4 months combined

Glad I stayed the extra night down here.

1.64" total. A bit more rain than I expected overnight.

Yeah when you see that depiction, it looks like we’d get slammed but then it just shears out.

One good thing is that i do like how potent the energy is. Guidance will often dampen/weaken it too quickly. Hopefully a similar scenario here.

Ensembles have an interesting western ridge spike near the end of their run around 1/25. A few of the OP runs have been showing a bigger system around then too. I’d also still keep an eye on potential SWFE type system around 1/18-19