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Could have our first fall winter severe storm system of the year with this upcoming second season .

There are always questions about whether any SSW or wind reversal will couple appropriately with the polar vortex. This 3D modeling suggests that it will successfully disrupt things all the way to the surface, which is hopeful to at least mute a torch December. I'm not expecting a miracle in the snowfall department this winter, just climo snowfall.

I don't even bother looking at anything until post-Thanksgiving. Some can't help but torture themselves with 10 day OP model runs in October, which boggles the mind.

Yeah, the pacific vortex being much further west in December 2009 allowed the blocking pattern to pin TPVs under the block. The vortex is much closer to the west coast with these E based events, so even with a good blocking pattern the cold would be very fleeting as the vortex pushing warm air into canada will try to scour it out. 2009: Now:

Overall much too cool a forecast for the CONUS in October since we are in top 5 warmth territory. Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social Follow After finishing with the record warmest July, the record warmest August, and the record warmest September, the Contiguous U.S. is on pace to have the 4th warmest October on record. The warmest, 1963, was 4.8F above normal. It's still possible that this October could move higher up the list. 11:30 AM · Oct 23, 2026

One thing is for sure. These ridiculous, bombastic claims on twitter today that 2009-10 is the best “analog” for this winter are going to go down in flames. That is quite possibly the worst analog in the entire history of mankind. It’s actually laughable and embarrassing that anyone would think that’s a perfect match for this year. Fantasy, cope, deep denial, fake news, delusion and wishcasting at its finest

October 27 1943: Residents would describe this event as 'one of the worst fogs in the Twin Cities in memory'. A very dense area of fog blanketed the area. In the thickest fog, street lights could not be seen 25 yards away. Drivers refused to cross unmarked railroad crossings and traffic was brought to a standstill. 1931: An intense area of low pressure moves into the Duluth area. The barometer falls to 29.02 inches. For Tuesday, October 27, 2026 1764 - A "very remarkable storm of snow with high winds" produced 22 inches at Rutland in central Massachusetts. (David Ludlum) 1929 - A snowstorm dumped 27 inches upon Ishpeming, MI, in 24 hours to establish a state record. (David Ludlum) 1962 - An early season winter storm over New England blanketed northern Maine with 7 to 16 inches of snow, and southeastern New England with up to 3 inches of snow. Worcester MA received a record 4.7 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain from Virginia to New York State. Fallen leaves made roads and sidewalks slick, and also clogged sewers. Rainfall totals of 1.55 inches at Newark NJ, 1.54 inches at Harrisburg PA, 1.27 inches at Scranton PA, and 1.22 inches at Atlantic City NJ, were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Low pressure brought snow and gale force winds to the Great Lakes Region, and snow and high winds to the north central U.S. Winds gusted to 47 mph at Lansing MI, and reached 55 mph at Pierre SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Wintry weather invaded the northwestern U.S. A storm crossing the Central Rockies produced up to 23 inches of snow in the mountains east of Salt Lake City UT. "Indian Summer" continued in the Lower Ohio Valley and the Upper Great Lakes Region. Afternoon highs of 71 degrees at Marquette MI and 72 degrees at Sault Ste Marie MI were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 27 Tue National Black Cat Day 27 Tue World Occupational Therapy Day 27 Tue National American Beer Day 27 Tue World Day for Audiovisual Heritage 27 Tue National Mentoring Day 27 Tue Cranky Co-Workers Day 27 Tue National Henry C. Ramos Day 27 Tue Navy Day

But note that the CS3 Oct ‘26 mean for the E coast states has verified quite well based on Oct 1-25.

These last few pages are gold. Tweets, obscure models, it has everything. The reality is, it’s 70+ this week and it doesn’t look like we’re cooling down anytime soon. You know the winter looks bleak when you have to dig really deep to find something positive

Stunner. Perfect day to collect some firewood. Big old black locust. Throw it right in the stove.

Parts of the CONUS are at +8 to +9 and it’s only October. None of the seasonal models were forecasting this from the September runs. Even the early October runs turned out too cool.

racheted myself into a st louis climo

GFS is the only model showing any meaningful precipitation next week. Tossed?

10 of the 22 Chesco area stations most at relatively higher elevations have yet to record a below freezing temp. Here in EN I usually don't see a freeze till November and this year looks like no exception. Of note I receive the least amount of freezing days across these observation sites.

10 of the 22 Chesco area stations most at relatively higher elevations have yet to record a below freezing temp. Here in EN I usually don't see a freeze till November and this year looks like no exception. Of note I receive the least amount of freezing days across these observation sites.

I don’t see the purpose of arguing with someone over and over if you disagree with their forecast. if someone forecasts december 2015, so be it. you can check back later and see if it verifies. Personally think a “super torch” outcome is more likely in the upper midwest instead of the NE because the STJ will extend much further eastward this time around, which means more coastal storms and ridge pushed more into Canada, both limiting factors.

I think we all are punting a cold and snowy December, but it's important to keep it real, too.

Plus increased cloud cover from precip will cap the extremes a bit Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

It got up to 72.5 yesterday and going to be in the 50s today

I personally couldn't care less if it's +10 or +6...TBH, if it isn't going to snow, give me the former....I just think there is reason to doubt that with all central and eastern Pacific forcing.

ok lets look at December 2015..NYC CKP..one day with a high of 70, had 11 days with highs over 60, 12 days with highs over 50. 0 days with highs in the 30's, 0 days with temps below freezing in a winter month that's almost impossible. All it takes is one shot of arctic cold, or some rainy days with temps in the 40's. to have a more reasonable above average month.

The exact CONUS locations of the +10 and greater departures are difficult to forecast until we are into the first week of the month. We have had 17 such months since December 2015 with departures exceeding +10 or greater for some portion of the CONUS. So December 2015 kicking off this new and more frequent CONUS monthly +10 pattern became a trendsetter in terms of this much warmer climate and not an outlier. There is always regional variability involved as to where the highest departures set up. During our last super El Niño in December 2023 it was INL that got the +15.3° departure. DEC…2015….NYC….+13.3 MAR…2016…MOT….+10.5 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5 DEC….2024…..LND…..+11.3 DEC….2025….CPR…..+12.1 JAN….2026….RIW……+10.2 FEB…..2026….LND…..+11.3 MAR….2026….PHX…..+12.5

Looking ahead at the ensemble models it looks like above normal temperatures continue over the next month. That said keep in mind that our average normal temperatures continue to drop quickly over this timeframe. It also looks to be wetter than normal. Some models are even hinting at some accumulating snow by the week before Thanksgiving.

Looking ahead at the ensemble models it looks like above normal temperatures continue over the next month. That said keep in mind that our average normal temperatures continue to drop quickly over this timeframe. It also looks to be wetter than normal. Some models are even hinting at some accumulating snow by the week before Thanksgiving.

Forecast for us was 10-16, got 4.5" of slop with a brief power outage. Two days later the forest inventory contractor and I were checking field crew accuracy at Rangeley Bald Mountain, and the melting snow pelted us with icewater for the 8 hours we were out there. I've had nicer days. We actually had some clouds yesterday, an uncommon phenomenon lately.