All Activity

The way it looks on the GEFS we could initially have some rain/ice and then as the deeper cold comes in we end up getting some snow. Pretty loaded look though with all that moisture. Verbatim this would be snow on the mean for the region with the colder air in place.

The state plow guys are masters at dropping the blades for fantasy snow on RT 20! They went though with the blade down a couple nights back when they were laying treatment. We only had like 3 flakes, and they were slop

I don't think much will be happening until after the game... ride home might have some snow depending on how long you stay in the lot. I wish it was coming in sooner (if at all)

To me, it feels like next weekend is the most legit so far this season. The pattern seems to have more things going in our favor to finally give us some good snows for the majority of us. Feeling good about it

That's always where I've stood.

Enjoy this heat wave guys and gals because after today and tomorrow the cold air will REALLY get our attention

would love to go if someone wants to fund my trip

It's picking up downsloping winds aiding the warm nose...could it pin the cold against the plateau..possibly, but it's rare...nose would have to be really weak.

Agree, until GFSAI scores a coup. I will lean towards Dr. No. We will see shortly

NW trend….. it’s time .

Hope something shifts for yall inland and you get blasted with snow. Looks like we along the coast'll have to wait for another opportunity.

I messaged my town's DPW about fixing some lifted up slabs of our road... they said they might get around to it... getting ready for Saturday...lol

For some reason my CAD plateau gif isn't working, so I will post a static image here Now, Tellico ninja'd me with that explanation of CAD, so to be clear this is not a normal CAD set up as Tellico describes. The above is some weird microclimate mess that may or may not play out.

Tomorrow is a little slept on. Surface temps are truly mehtacular, but guidance has been insistent on a decently heavy band somewhere. If it’s in the right spot, some folks here will get 1-2”. Really don’t know what to think about Sunday right now. Will be a good test of the GFSAI. I’d lean Euro and its AI component, which seems to be the NWS’s thoughts as well based on the less than snowy forecast.

OT FTW

That’s the final nail in the coffin .. last shovelful of dirt

Departures mid way through Jan 1/15: EWR: +4.3 ISP: + 4.2 NYC: +3.6 JFK: +3.1 TTN: +2.6 LGA: +2.3

For tonight, do we really buy the models showing snow at onset for some lower elevations and continuing throughout? This is basically a front swinging through with a low level jet nosing into the TN Valley, right? I just can't think of a time when this kind of a set up produced snow recently for any lower elevations. Interestingly the 3km NAM has CAD for eastern escarpment of the plateau: If someone rides just the right side of whatever boundary there is, they cold get some good rates though.

That's called chaos. Scientific reality

Cold vodka, fresh seafood, cold vodka, fur caps, borscht, beef stroganoff, cold vodka. What’s the problem? .

Records: Highs: EWR: 58 (1995) *odd day with a low record max below 60s NYC: 58 (1995) LGA: 59 (1953) JFK: 58 (1995) Lows: EWR: 0 (2004) NYC: 1 (2004) LGA: 2 (2004) JFK: 1 (2004) Historical: 1831 - A great snowstorm raged from Georgia to Maine. Snowfall totals greater than 30 inches were reported from Pennsylvania across southern New England. (David Ludlum) 1921: Winds gusting up to 59 mph created a sand blizzard across southwest Minnesota and a snowstorm across the north. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1959: Bennet’s Bridge, NY received 51 inches of snow in just 16 hours from a lake effect snowstorm generated as cold air swept across the relatively warm waters of Lake Ontario. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) Cold night in the Shenandoah Valley as Dale Enterprise had a low temperature of 14 °F and Naked Creek in Rockingham County, Virginia recorded a minimum of -5 °F. (Ref. Daily News Record Newspaper - Harrisonburg, Virginia) 1964 - Fort Worth, TX, received 7.5 inches of snow, and Dallas reported a foot of snow. (David Ludlum) 1967: In Minnesota, a fast moving blizzard brought winds in excess of 75 mph. The snowfall was light to moderate with extensive blowing and drifting snow. Visibility was near zero for an extended period of time. Temperatures fell rapidly during the storm and by the morning of the 18th, many record lows were set. Many vehicles went into the ditch. Thousands of motorists and school children found shelter wherever they could as travel came to a standstill. In South Dakota, rain followed by a sudden drop in temperatures of nearly 30 degrees in two hours resulted in widespread freezing rain and significant icing on roads and trees. Strong winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts to 75 mph along with the ice halted most travel. The wind and icing also caused the toppling of a 270 foot radio tower near Aberdeen. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - A winter storm produced a total of 61 inches of snow at Rye CO, and wind gusts to 100 mph in Utah. The storm then spread heavy snow from the Texas panhandle to Indiana. Tulia TX received 16 inches of snow, and up to 14 inches was reported in western Oklahoma. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A small storm in the western U.S. produced a foot of snow and wind gusts to 70 mph in the Lake Tahoe Basin of Nevada. Showers and thunderstorms produced 2.28 inches of rain at Brownsville TX,their third highest total for any day in January. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Strong chinook winds plagued much of the state of Wyoming. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Cody, and wind gusts to 100 mph were reported in eastern and northwestern Wyoming. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Heavy snow fell across the Prince Williams Sound area and the Susitna Valley of southern Alaska. Valdez was buried under 64.9 inches of snow in less than two days, including a record 47.5 inches in 24 hours. Up to 44 inches of snow was reported in the Susitna Valley. The heavy snow blocked roads, closed schools, and sank half a dozen vessels in the harbor. (Storm Data) 1994: Minimum 1° the lowest temperature since January 1985 then -7 degrees January 16, saw an unusual assault of ice storms on the Commonwealth. It began in mid January with an arctic blast that sent temperatures below zero over northern and western Virginia for a couple mornings. Winchester recorded -18°F on the 16th, Harrisonburg reached -13°F, Woodstock was -17°F and western Loudoun County reached -15°F. Between then and mid February, about a dozen storms hit dropping snow, sleet, and freezing rain over all but the southeast.(Ref. Virginia Weather History) Bitter cold gripped areas across the Great Lakes and Northeast: Alpena, MI tied its record low for January with -28 °F. Boston, MA suffered through its coldest day in 26 years with an average temp for the day of only 2°. Watertown, NY was the nation’s cold spot with a reading of -43°. Blackouts were reported over a large area of Virginia as the power drain overwhelmed utilities. A layer of ice up to two inches thick formed over sections of southeast Missouri, followed by 6 to 10 inches of snow. Numerous trees and power lines fell down due to ice accumulation. Structural damage to older barns and collapsed roofs were also reported due to the heavy weight of the snow and ice. A large number of car accidents were also reported on area highways. Some areas were without power in excess of 24 hours.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2004: Mount Washington Observatory, New Hampshire: The observatory, boasting of having "the world's worst weather," records a morning temperatures of 43 degrees below zero Fahrenheit. The previous evening, the observatory reported a wind chill of 97 below zero Fahrenheit based on a combination of wind speed gusting at 92 mph and an air temperature of minus 39 Fahrenheit. (Ref. Wx.Doctor) 2008: An area of low pressure brought snow, sleet, and freezing rain across northern Georgia. Three to four inches was a typical amount reported from many of the northeast Georgia counties. 2009: As New England was under the grip of an arctic blast, an all-time low temperature of -50° Fahrenheit was recorded for Maine. It was recorded at 7:30 a.m. EST at a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauge on the Big Black River near Depot Mountain in northwestern Aroostook County. The previous record, -48° Fahrenheit, was set in Van Buren, Maine almost 84 years earlier, on January 19, 1925.

Well hopefully it’s south of us and we get the snow lol

I think @Eskimo Joe - outlined a emergency management nightmare scenario a few years ago as it pertained to ice. It was a true horrific narrative if I remember...

Lets let the models Ingest all of the hurricane hinters data today and step back from the edge until we get that data… positive trends today for us. .

If there was a High sitting over the lakes then possibly. But a GL low aides any type of vort to draw just enough southerly flow in advance up the valley to wreck the lower thermals. You can overcome this after the vort passes, but need it to generate some type of lee side low close enough to us to pull down the cold and still close enough to assist with lift to switch the moist low/mid levels over before they naturally dry out. Despise GL lows worse than SER...more ways to overcome the latter.