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Nothing’s even close to a certainty. 2026 and 2023 are not even close in magnitude and 2023 never even got stronger than high end moderate as well as being way less E based in winter vs where 26-7 is heading: 2023 9 2.27 1.51 0.45 0.91 2026 9 3.94 2.97 -0.02 2.06 2023 12 0.68 1.48 0.73 1.38 2024 1 -0.02 1.15 0.70 1.03 2024 2 0.16 0.78 0.50 0.84

Ryan Kane @ryankanerWX https://x.com/ryankanerWX/status/2111481037033296266/photo/1 The latest Euro weeklies run with the troughiness over the western US slowly pushing westward into the pacific makes sense to me. This would allow a more poleward flow at times into CONUS, increasing the chances for cold air intrusions for mid-late November. For now the cold likely stays bottled up through early November. A more typical, strong +ENSO pattern is beginning to take shape come November into December. For snow lovers across the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast, this will be a high boom/bust winter which will all be determined from Jan 15-Feb 15th. I'll have my full synopsis in my winter forecast on Sunday, November 1st. #EcWx #MdWx

Height of Land was pounding pretty good earlier Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

My point is just because it overshot cold in 2023 doesnt mean it will do it this year

Right and how did the euro do in 24-25 an 25-26? Its not overhoting cold by that much

53 and .88 rain.

Heading NW at the end of the run lets rip that up here

A bit high, but not bad: 65/26/7 and 103 for yearly max. Busted on the earliest 90 though, not till 6/6.

.52, most after midnight. Surprised since heavy storms went north, east south and west of me last evening.

12z ICON might have been wild if it went past hr180

Did better here in Columbia than what I had an anticipated. 0.75 inches for Friday evening through Saturday morning.

It’s freezing out

I’ll take the rainfall after what models showed a week ago

Sticking about 2000ft or so. But clearing up

Weeklies really get that active southern stream going in early November:

Cold air still advecting in….temps haven’t risen all morning.

Its 2 weeks away lol. Take it one day at a time buddy ..its 10/17

49/40 here. I have nothing nice to say.

The season of disgusting dews is finally over. Hopefully no more AC till april

October 17 1971: Heavy rain falls in NW Minnesota. 4.02 inches is recorded at Georgetown (20 miles N of Moorhead). 1952: Record lows between 10 to 15 degrees are reported across central Minnesota, including a low of 10 at St. Cloud, 12 at Glenwood, and 14 at Alexandria, Litchfield, and Mora. For Saturday, October 17, 2026 1781 - General Cornwallis attempted to escape encirclement by crossing York River, "but a violent storm arose" dispersing his boats causing him to ask for an armistice. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1910 - A hurricane made a loop off the southwest coast of Florida. Winds above 100 mph were reported at Fort Myers FL, and the barometric pressure at Sand Key reached 28.40 inches. (David Ludlum) 1950 - Small but powerful Hurricane King struck Miami, FL. The hurricane packs winded to 122 mph, with gusts to 150 mph. Hurricane King then moved up the Florida peninsula to Georgia. Four persons were killed and damage was 28 million dollars. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1971 - Great balls of fire were observed just ahead of a tornado moving down the main street of Wray CO. However, little other electrical activity accompanied the storm. Nine persons were injured in the tornado, all at a trailer court at the edge of town. (The Weather Channel) 1984 - A snowstorm struck northern Utah producing a record 18 inches in 24 hours at Salt Lake City, and 40 inches at the nearby Alta Ski Resort. The town of Magna, located ten miles west of Salt Lake City, did not receive any snow at all. The storm was responsible for a fifty vehicle pile-up along Interstate 15 near Farmington UT. (Storm Data) 1987 - It was a great day for an Oktoberfest, or to enjoy the colors of autumn, as much of the nation enjoyed sunny and mild weather. Columbia SC dipped to 34 degrees, marking their third morning in a row of record cold. Bakersfield CA reached 80 degrees for the 143rd day in a row to break a record established in 1940. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Lower Ohio Valley. Severe thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes in Indiana, including one which injured four persons. Strong thunderstorm winds at Connerville IND caused three million dollars damage. Thunderstorms in Illinois produced hail two inches in diameter Colfax. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Showers and thunderstorms representing the remnants of Hurricane Jerry deluged southeast Kentucky with four to six inches of rain in 18 to 24 hours, resulting in widespread flash flooding. Flooding resulted in more than five million dollars damage. Temperatures again warmed into the 80s and lower 90s in the southeastern U.S. Lakeland FL and Orlando FL reported record highs of 95 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 17 Sat National Pasta Day 17 Sat Sweetest Day 17 Sat International Day for the Eradication of Poverty 17 Sat National Fetch Day 17 Sat National Pay Back a Friend Day 17 Sat Black Poetry Day 17 Sat World Trauma Day 17 Sat International Archaeology Day 17 Sat Child Poverty Day 17 Sat National Catholic Men’s Conference Day 17 Sat National Edge Day 17 Sat National Mulligan Day 17 Sat Wear Something Gaudy Day 17 Sat Women in Military Service for America Memorial Anniversary

With some lower spots with a chance to have their first freezing temperature attached is the average, earliest and latest dates on record.

With some lower spots with a chance to have their first freezing temperature attached is the average, earliest and latest dates on record.

0.30" so far. Third straight rainy Saturday, although the QPF from today and last week is not really amounting to much.