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Another really impressive thing about this event is how effective it is in shutting down the Atlantic hurricane season. So far it has been at least. Record high wind shear for August. This is following a record high July also. These have led to a record low ACE value in the Atlantic for this date currently.

WB 18Z NBM thru the weekend.

Nobody knows, but IME usually a significant pattern change comes about with a big storm ushering it in.

It would actually stick and not be a head fake like in May?

And September snow for the NNE weenies

You can always count on it for the fantasy canes

It’ll either be October 20 or November 20. No in between.

Darn, my 90% chance for rain tonight is gone. It's getting dry here again

What a joke of a model. GFS with weenies for all.

Ahhh back to the GFS seasonal love affair with the CAG

The Weather Underground and TWC can't agree on the position of the front. Is it over Erie or Morgantown??? This is important for the next 48 hrs. Absolutely amazing for what is supposed to be high tech in September of 2026.

Fun to look at fantasy range global runs, but will be watching the ensembles for any hints of a tropical hit.

Topped out at 90 here today.

Not same solution on euro but it also has some tropical like thing at the end of the run that would dump on us.

The GFS fantast land manages to hit almost the entire east coast from Fl to ME with Cat 1-2 gusts.

It is not if an acorn falls but if someone mistakes the sound of it hitting a car with a gunshot

Youre pathetic. Seeing as though you dont even understand how the weather works, itll be nice when you disappear mid winter when the east gets a noreaster.

My thoughts on this, agree or disagree.... The range of strong/super El Nino snowfalls for Detroit is 20-45". They all have some subtle things in common (early snow, warm December, much colder Jan and/or Feb) but all have differences as well. If the juiced jet provides above avg precip, it can easily be an ok snow year. It works both ways. Since the beginning of record, there are ebbs and flows with snowfall. The record snow of the 2010s settled down big time in the 2020s. We were due. Now, its been 5 years since we had an above avg snow season, so were due the other way. Last years total snow number was only an inch below the longterm avg (5" below the snowier current avg, thanks to the 2000s-10s). But it had way above avg snowcover and below avg temps, so much so it was rated a severe winter on AWSSI. This is now 2 winters in a row that were "cold and white" without a surplus of snow. Theres no question this winter will be warmer than the last 2, but who says thats automatically less snow? We can easily get mild, snowy winters just as we can get cold, white and dry. The strong Nino of 2015-16 had slightly below avg snow in Detroit but above avg snow in the northern suburbs and well above avg snow towards Flint, all with mild temps. Its interesting that most models have eastern MI in the above avg precip as well, on the western shield of the east coast wetness and with a juiced jet. If that comes to fruition, kiss the "dry" el nino goodbye. Of course, it could also unfold in the nightmarish fashion of warm, wet December then colder/drier Jan/Feb. Its all speculation. All that said, I have never once predicted a good winter this year. I expect a subpar winter. But not crazy so. If i had to put a guess on snowfall, id say 30-33" for DTW.

87 with a dewpoint of 63 here right now. I'm looking forward to the dewpoint dropping to 50 tomorrow afternoon. It's gonna be a beautiful day.

GFS has been pretty consistent about that storm in our general vicinity for quite a few runs now. I'd consider that storm to usher in the base state pattern change if it were to happen.

the partial right amount is precisely = to the amount that is doubted