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The models absolutely crapped the bed with the past weekend rain event.

Here are the Euro Oct progs for winter going back to 2017-8 for comparison purposes and how they did in the E US: 2026: 2025: much too warm 2024: much too warm 2023 (Nino): too cold 2022: too cold (not warm enough) 2021: net slightly too warm (close SE, too warm NE) 2020: net too warm (much too warm SE; avg of too warm NE but close N Eng) 2019: pretty close (slightly too cold SE but close NE) 2018 (Nino): net too cold (close NE but much too cold SE): 2017: close ———————— Tally: -did well in 19 and esp. 17 -did pretty well 21 -did pretty badly 23, 22, 20, 18 -did terribly 25, 24 -too cold both El Niños in SE -NE: too warm on 4, close on 3, too cold on 2 -SE: too warm on 3, close on 2, too cold on 4

Incredible cold blast. Minus 2 at Tallahassee, 2nd coldest week at Central Park (though well behind 12/29/17-1/4/18) and the NJ snow paradox - the state's least snowy spot gets 34", biggest snowfall in NJ records.

Right....but, that was Boris' whole point, to whom you replied. I merely made the distinction....not assigning any blame at all.

Yeah, weren't there supposed to be highs in the upper fifties and low sixties this week?

It has been quite the torched fall...lol

I did not specifically mention A's or B's in my post. I stated that back in the day the measurements were taken after a storm had ended...in other word all snowstorms regardless of "type"

Flood watches have been issued for most North Florida counties and some south Georgia and Alabama counties. Flood Watch National Weather Service Tallahassee FL Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 234 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 ALZ068-069-FLZ007>019-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-326-426-GAZ122>131- 142>148-155>161-060000- /O.EXT.KTAE.FA.A.0004.000000T0000Z-261006T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Geneva-Houston-North Walton-Central Walton-Holmes-Washington- Jackson-Inland Bay-Calhoun-Inland Gulf-Inland Franklin-Gadsden- Leon-Inland Jefferson-Madison-Inland Wakulla-South Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Northern Liberty-Southern Liberty-Randolph-Calhoun- Terrell-Dougherty-Lee-Worth-Turner-Tift-Ben Hill-Irwin-Early- Miller-Baker-Mitchell-Colquitt-Cook-Berrien-Seminole-Decatur-Grady- Thomas-Brooks-Lowndes-Lanier- Including the cities of Bethel, Babcock, Hoggard Mill, Dalkeith, West Bainbridge, Capitola, Saint Joe Beach, Marianna, Vicksburg, Mitchell Co A/P, Panama City, Metcalf, Monticello, Seminole State Park, Simsville, Alpine Heights, Center Ridge, Freeport, Geneva, Donalsonville, East Albany, Lockett Crossing, Yeomans, Davis Park, De Funiak Spring Airport, Richter Crossroads, Moultrie Municipal A/P, Dothan, Cairo, Southport, Coles, Peterson Hill, Moultrie, Spence Airport, Howard Creek, High Bluff, Sumatra, Beverly, Lovett, Turquoise Beach, Cottle, Cordrays Mill, Milford, Bonifay, Chaires, Madison, Chipley, Chula, Bannockburn, Barker Store, Pelham, Hartford, Santa Clara, Tallahassee, Ganer, Riverturn, Doverel, Pine Valley, Ausmac, Decatur Co A/P, Williamsburg, Newton, Commissary Hill, Holmes County Airport, Graceville, Grady Co A/P, Iveys Mill, Bellview, Shivers Mill, Berrien Co A/P, Hawkinstown, Tifton, Elpino, Centerville, Cluster Springs, Nashville, Littman, Wetumpka, Killearn Estates, Pinetta, Panacea, Albany, Fadette, Fitzgerald Municipal A/P, Lewis, Pleasant Ridge, Camilla, Santa Rosa Beach, Lynn Haven, Apalachicola, Nixon, Lynn, Killearn Lakes, Browntown, Festus, Cottonwood, Glendale, Steinham Store, Dillon, Apalachicola Airport, Bainbridge, Blakely, Bowens Mill, Courthouse, Chaires Crossroads, Grooverville, Kern, Oak Grove, Thomasville, Twin Pole, Dawson Municipal A/P, Barneyville, Springvale, Herod, Quincy Airport, Early Co A/P, Cooktown, Brooks Co A/P, Cobb Crossroads, Crystal Lake, Greggs, Odena, Little Hope, Alma, Sandestin, Benevolence, Blue Springs, Queensland, Leonia, Wakulla Springs, Hobby, Sweetwater, Waterloo, Palmyra, Alfords, Red Store Crossroads, Lakeland, Cherry Lake, Ashburn, Sunsweet, Honeyville, Magnolia Beach, Colquitt, Walker, Marysville, Buckhorn, Westwood, Abba, Empress, Sylvester Airport, Worth, Valdosta Regional Airport, Casa Blanco, Adel, Fort Gadsden, Graves, Hacoda, Scotts Ferry, Branchville, Dickey, Morgan, Valdosta, Hanover, Wewahitchka, Capps, Moncrief, Five Points, Port Leon, Pine Park, Vilas, Elmodel Wma, Ashford, Ocilla, Port St. Joe, Pasco, Hanson, Irwinville, Fitzgerald, Douglasville, Point Washington, Tilton, Boykin, Cuba, Ashton, Beachton, Bennett, Drifton, Hopewell, Arlington, Jarrott, Beacon Hill, Econfina, Enterprise, Bay City, Turner City, Dixie, Saint Marks, Morgan Place, Harding, Mayhaw, Dawson, Nankin, De Funiak Springs, Pretoria, Southwest Ga Regional A/P, Sneads, Bradfordville, Bunker, Chipley Municipal Airport, Hilliardville, Hays Place, Sylvester, Capel, Logan Field Municipal A/P, Poplar Head, Portland, New Hope, Dills, Cook Co A/P, Laconte, Frink, Buck Siding, Forrester, Medart, Overstreet, Quincy, Wilma, Callaway, Cotton, Donaldsonville A/P, Abe Springs, Quitman, Springvale Station, Clarksville, Teeterville, Maclay State Gardens, Sopchoppy, Creels, Leesburg, Hardin Heights, Weber, Argyle, Orange Hill, Central City, Chattahoochee, Clarks Mill, Cuthbert, Gammage, Isabella, Fairchild, White City, Geneva Municipal A/P, Youngstown, Durham, Gordy, Edison, Eucheeanna, Massee, Red Rock, Malone, and Blountstown 234 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 /134 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026/ ...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Alabama, including the following areas, Geneva and Houston, Florida, including the following areas, Calhoun, Central Walton, Coastal Bay, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Gulf, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Wakulla, Gadsden, Holmes, Inland Bay, Inland Franklin, Inland Gulf, Inland Jefferson, Inland Wakulla, Jackson, Leon, Madison, North Walton, Northern Liberty, South Walton, Southern Liberty and Washington, and Georgia, including the following areas, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien, Brooks, Calhoun, Colquitt, Cook, Decatur, Dougherty, Early, Grady, Irwin, Lanier, Lee, Lowndes, Miller, Mitchell, Randolph, Seminole, Terrell, Thomas, Tift, Turner and Worth. * WHEN...Through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for most of the area with locally higher amounts of up to 6 inches possible through Monday, especially along the Emerald and Forgotten Coasts. Another area of concern is across south-central Georgia where locally heavy rainfall since Friday afternoon has primed the region more so than the rest of our area, so it wont take as much rain to cause flash flooding. Across the flood watch area, very high rain rates due to the tropical air mass may lead to flash flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage areas. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ PK

wow perfect week ahead for October! Today Sunny, with a high near 61. West wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Tonight Clear, with a low around 37. West wind 7 to 9 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 55. West wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 35. Light west wind. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 61. Light southwest wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46. Southwest wind around 9 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 66. West wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44. West wind around 5 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 62. West wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 43. West wind 3 to 5 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 61. West wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Calm wind. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 61. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

No, but it's important to note considering the context of the post that you responded to.

That was my last winter there and the only good one I experienced. I remember the Halloween snow.

Yeah I think there's a chance, though there may be high pressure around that suppresses activity to our south. Still too early to know, though. Up to 70% 7 day odds in a historically favorable area for TC genesis.

Did I say it didn't?

That is true, but you are proving my point that the same issue concerning measuring inconsistencies plagued Miller B events, as well.

You are correct regarding snow measurements. Back in the day the measurements were often taken after a storm had ended. I'll go to my grave stating the snowfall totals for the Merrimack Valley area for the Blizzard of 78 were on the low side..

I think the boundary just went through. Was overcast most of the morning and just had a thin line of showers go through. Mostly clear now. 51.4°

The historically quiet Atlantic may have one final gasp before closing the door on the season, and this one is in the southwestern Gulf. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Southwestern Gulf of America: A trough of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Kelly We've all been tracking this one for a few days, and while odds have significantly increased, there's still a fair amount of uncertainty on what this one could actually become. While development looks likely with the geographically favorable genesis location of the Bay of Campeche (the concave nature of the region promotes spin) alongside warm SSTs and an upper level pattern favorable for divergence (promoting strong convection) there are issues with westerly shear if the system is not perfectly aligned with the jet coming from the west and potentially dry air. Most guidance at least at the moment is modest in intensity as it pulls the eventual system northeast into the northern Gulf coast.

October 15-20 has highs in the 50s and lows 30s and 40s according to 6z GFS.

Hopefully not a bunch of "almost no cigar" situations. Very frustrating

I believe @Weather Will and @CAPE would have monthly Euro seasonal maps. Hint, hint...!

Going to be hard to buy a cloud for most of this week.

That’s about what you’d expect. Can we time some cold with these storms or do we have benchmark rain events.

Whoops forgot...the DJF 2m Temp That is actually not terrible for a 3 mth Super El Nino winter.

Updated October Euro seasonal out. Temos around the same as September.'s. But a little wetter than September. These maps are for DJF combined fyi. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_2mtm?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000 https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_rain?area=NAME&base_time=202610010000&stats=ensm&valid_time=202612020000