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The latest guidance continues to portray a November quite similar to a composite for the last two strong El Niño events (2015 and 2023). Long-range guidance has low skill, especially beyond two weeks. However, subseasonal model skill might be somewhat higher than usual due to strong ENSO influence. The most recent CFSv2 forecasts also feature a reasonably similar solution for November.

To quote Glenn Frey, “The Heat is On” - 34 earlier this morning as the low.

36 for low in White Oak and 32 Frederick

I think the record warmth will be in the early part of November, like the other even years this decade (2020, 2022, and 2024).

I wonder if the drought out in plains and west is causing a feedback loop too.

November doesn't have to be warm to have a warm December. 2021 and 2023, which were the 2nd and 3rd warmest Decembers in the East (after 2015), were near to slightly below average in November. And don't forget about 2012, which had one of the coldest Novembers in the East (after Hurricane Sandy), before turning warm in December.

I turned the pellet stove on overnight, got us up to 74 running on low.

33 and light frost

26.8 for the low here. First fire in the wood stove of the new season. Let's give it a few weeks til we light it up again.

Right next to Birch Grove, around 750ft up

First freeze of the year at Deep Creek, now time to track first flakes

Just say there will be one big storm in it lol But yes

If there's a "James Award", I nominate ineedsnow.

12z NAM trying to bring in that coastal a bit

Low of 41 at 7:21am.

I forget .. where are you in town ? The lower spots were 30-31

My low of 34 checks out

If I do a winter outlook this year, I don’t think you guys will like it. Still want me to do one?

34 here. May have to flip the furnace on this evening.

Pulling 80 in late October is challenging period, even if theres a stout ridge right over us. Mid 70s we should achieve easily though.

Mattapoisett continues to flourish. We're done at Pit2, and just did my law mowing. Now to wash the boat--and that'll put a wrap on summer '26.

I dropped to 30 around 11 and warmed back up to 34 by sunrise. Sent from my SM-S948U using Tapatalk