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A warmer enso actually correlates slightly warmer for us, but what makes a warm enso "snowier" is that it gives us multiple ways to "win". We can still get a colder pattern sometimes in warm enso...and then it's a possible 2003, 2010 type thing. Those are the once in a blue moon blockbuster winters. But even in a warmer year we can still "win" if we just time up one of those STJ storms with a rare colder period. 1983 and 2016 for example. And of course we get lots of years somewhere in between...but with an active STJ we just have more chances to get snow, even if overall the winter isn't cold...we just have to time up a couple of the storms. The problem with a fading nina is that we don't get the advantage that actually makes warmer enso better...the stronger STJ, which typically doesn't take effect until we get an actual warm enso. So I dont think there is really an advantage to a fading cold enso for our snowfall. That said, I do think a fluke can always happen. Something like 2014 for example, which was a wall to wall enso neutral year, could happen but it's just so rare it likely wouldn't show up in such a small sample just by random probabilities. If we had records that went back longer we probably would eventually see a snowy winter in a cold enso fading to neutral, IMO. But I think we can say it's not MORE likely that if the enso simply stays cold since we do have some examples of a snowy winter in a wall to wall cold enso winter...and absolutely NONE in a cold enso fading to neutral. Again, due to small sample I think that is somewhat a fluke, so saying it is WORSE is a step to far imo, but saying it is better also has no support.

I want a refund on today's sunny forecast. Sunny to me means at least 80% sunshine, not 40% (and that's being generous). Probably more so a Frederick thing than for areas to the east.

We don’t need more rain…

Welp they've already lost most of the rain

Finger nails embedded in the walls of the well as victims try to climb out?

I had a few minutes so I found my data regarding a cold enso fading to neutral during the winter...and it's FUGLY, as I thought I remembered. Now, this is an extremely small sample size so it's always possible this is a fluke, but there is no actual results based data to support the idea a fading nina is a good thing. All the years where we had a weak cold enso heading into the fall that faded to neutral by the JFM period and BWI snowfall that winter. 2022-23: 0.2" 2016-17: 3" 2001-02: 0.3" 1983-84: 14.5" 1971-72: 13" 1964-65: 18.6" 1956-57: 19.1" The last 3 examples of this were some of our worst snowfall winters ever! Additionally, while snowfall was somewhat better with the older analogs, snow climo was significantly better then also so make sure to consider that. For example, that 18.6" total in 1965 might seem nice, except that was the least snowy winter of the entire 1960s for Baltimore! You have to apply context. A year with 14 or 18" of snow might seem ok now, but in a time period when BWI averaged close to 25" it would have been the equivalent of a single digit snowfall season now.

"Scary" is your description. "Sobering" is mine. But that's where the science is. On your point about verification, sea level forecasts have fared very well, so far. A paper that was published this past summer revealed: With an acceleration of global sea-level rise during the satellite altimetry era (since 1993) firmly established, it is now appropriate to examine sea-level projections made around the onset of this time period. Here we show that the mid-range projection from the Second Assessment Report of the IPCC (1995/1996) was strikingly close to what transpired over the next 30 years, with the magnitude of sea-level rise underestimated by only ∼1 cm.

We had a chilly low this morning of 40. A backdoor front arrives overnight will reinforce cooler temperatures and a chance of some showers Sunday with the arrival of a stronger front. The leaves in the Valley should be near peak this weekend. I'm seeing a trend in the longer range guidance suggesting stronger cold fronts pushing through until the end of October. Even some hints a snow showers in the longer range!

The -PNA tendency is alluded to in the follow up tweet. 2nd year Niña would support it:

That wind is roaring.

wind kicking up here with partly sunny now 65 degrees

really like the rustic look of the cabin, especially with the fall colors

Sunny now...

a pattern similar to last winter but with more -pna tendancies would be great. while it was fine here in the lake effect zones, there wasn’t much synoptic. i don’t think most here would complain about a more active pattern even if it brought more periods of warmth

At least it's a more active pattern moving forward.

i agree with webb’s take. i would lean strongly to a pattern similar to last winter. several peer-review studies, such as liang et al. (https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/30/22/jcli-d-17-0149.1.xml) link a strong indo-pacific warm pool to downstream western us/goa ridging, sometimes even independent of the enso state, especially if it is weak.

Scary for sure....but like all these longer term forecasts to date...highly unlikely to come close to reality!!

Even though it's a crappy year it's still pretty.

Is this for the end of the month event or for Sunday into Monday time frame? What are we seeing? It's still far out, but always nice to see some eye candy. I guess to get us ready for our disappointment over the winter time lol

The body of science is what it is. Citing it doesn't make one an "alarmist." By the way, from the Oxford English Dictionary: And for those who are interested in sea level rise, NASA provides a great site for seeing the projections. Images for one location from one scenario:

Yeah, cloudy with a few breaks of sun has been more like it.

12z GFS

lol so school is now selling shirts that say “The Hereford Zone has Faith in the Flakes” to help pay for his visit and I want to stab myself in my eyeballs

I’ve pointed out another flaw in his opinion above in the past. DT has previously stated a Nina shifting towards neutral during the winter as a good thing and used it to justify a forecast for a snowier winter. But when I ran the numbers there is absolutely no evidence to support this. Actually, a week Nina transitioning to enso neutral produces our absolute worst snowfall results of every enso grouping. That said, the logic he has provided behind why the enso becoming more neutral SHOULD be good is sound. The problem is it hasn’t happened. There must be some lag effect. I’ve theorized that it’s bad because you tend to still get a lack of STJ following a Nina into neutral, but Nina’s can actually be colder and if you lose that you end up with a still dry but warmer pattern. We need an actual Nino with the associated amplified STJ for it to help us.