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12z ICON looks to have nudged north a bit comparing 12z 24 to 06z 30

NWS has WWA for 2-4 here, we shall see. Funny that the 'high end' keeps going up, yesterday at this time my location had a 30% chance at 4" and a 5% chance of 6". As of the last update I'm now at 55% chance of 4", 30% chance of 6" and 5% chance at 8". Think that may be high unless we get 15 to 18-1 ratios. I'll be thrilled with the 2-4 in forecast verifying.

This little event will be a fun first go of winter weather at the new place. Will be interesting to see if I do much better than my folks in Western Ffx

Speaking of Denver, they did pretty well with the system that’s going to scrape us. Looks like 6” totals in the metro area.

12z NAM (granted in clown range for that model) trying to show it if you went out another couple panels. 06z Euro was closer too but no cigar. Maybe we can trend into a 1-3” type deal. We’re not used to positive trends but they used to happen.

The Nam looks like it would of had a bit of snow for Sunday night / Monday

Give me around an inch and I'm good

I've had both and much prefer my Ambient station. Simple setup and very accurate.

Chicago snow futility is already off the table for this season and it's only Dec. 4th. It just won't be the same here this winter without that thread. lol

The euro was god awful on the 12/1 system, There's a lot of vorticity in the flow going forward here over the next 15 days, Won't take much to get to amplify one of these but its not going to dong slap you from afar so, We watch, We wait.

Or will Jan be cold like in 1984, 1985, 2009, 2011, 2014, and 2022? Or will Jan be within a few degrees of normal (in the NE at least) like 1997, 1999, and 2013? So, Jan has had 3 times as many cold vs warm for the analogs since 1983-4 that I’m looking at. OTOH, Feb has a better chance to torch in the NE imho as only 2014 of the analogs I’m looking at was solidly cold there vs 6 being cold in Jan. In Feb, these were mild: 1984, 1997, 1999, 2009, 2017, and 2023. So, in Feb, 6 times as many were mild vs cold. That compares to 3 times as many cold vs mild in Jan. Two very different months on average.

That John Denver guy is full of s***.

There are two micro climates on either side of the mountains from spring thru early fall there for about a 30-50 mile stretch S to N. When the wind direction is S to SW and storms form a tornado/hail alley is common from Greenville up to Grottoes on Rt 340 corridor and east side likes to form severe T-storms from C'ville up to Culpeper on Rt 29. I'm 99% sure the ridge there enhances stuff.

Until we get the mean trough to set up just up just to our west, we will have a repeat of last year....CAD with dusters here and there, always on the verge of a warm up. Hope that thing can dump just to our west but we need the PNA to cooperate.

At minimum, should at least be first flakes of the season for dc/annapolis. It would be pretty lame to go much longer not getting a trace in this pattern. We’re still at goose eggs at each airport. In Frederick, we already had a couple of coatings by mid-December…confirmed via camera roll.

I'm going to stare at a series of terminally ill looking vorts and hope one digs enough to give me an inch.

Thermal profiles are all over the place, both observed and forecast. Near freezing in the valley (Hendersonville, Asheville), 45F here at 3550', but up at 4230' (Bearwallow), it is 41 F. Going to be interesting to watch this profile flip, according to short range models.

I would think air that cold will drain south and east and cause wintry chances even if you aren't under the blue negative height anomalies.

Keep seeing it being to warm while the clown maps keep saying you'll get IP and SN,looks more cold rain here

Wait, a fraudulent Norlun event, followed by dying clippers traversing 500 miles north of us doesn’t move the needle for you?

He gets excited over everything.

We have the good karma going this year, I predict this one doesn't crap until MI

Yesterday's record snow for the date from 1971 when it used to snow more than a half inch. 16.3 inches. Of course, even a half inch is a struggle. YESTERDAY 0.0 16.3 1971 0.0

What for weather stations are most of you running? Ambient weather stations, Davis? Thinking after the first of the year upgrading my weather station. 30 degrees and snow flurries.