All Activity

86 yesterday. Looks like summer for the foreseeable future. Yuck

Going off of my ambient station, 5.65" It has been matching my cocorahs gauge really well lately.

Whats your Aug total for the month so far?

Yeah, rapid warming of the SSTs near Japan as the main ridge axis migrated west from the July position north of Hawaii.

I got the same, .31"

Trust me it'll be cloudy all night, then clear skies afterward for two weeks.

Yeah it went nuts

Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (1993) NYC: 101 (1948) LGA: 99 (1948) JFK: 101 (1948) Lows: EWR: 52 (1940) NYC: 50 (1885) LGA: 55 (1940) JFK: 59 (1989) Historical: 1667: On this date one of the most severe hurricanes to ever hit Virginia reduced the Jamestown Colony to ruins. The nearest computation is that at least 10,000 houses were blown down. (pp 22-23 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss) 1854 - A tornado struck downtown Louisville around noon on Sunday, August 27th, 1854. It first touched down near 25th Street, southwest of downtown and lifted at the intersection of 5th and Main Streets. Although the tornado was only on the ground for a little over two miles, the twister claimed at least 25 lives. Many of those who perished were killed in the Third Presbyterian Church, where 55 people were gathered for Sunday church services. Straight-line winds that accompanied the tornado did significant damage to the Ohio River, where at least one boat sunk. 1856: 3 inches of snow on peak of Mount Washington, NH. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1881: A Category 2 Hurricane made landfall between St. Simons Island and Savannah, Georgia, on this day. Landfall coincided with high tide and proved very destructive. The hurricane killed 700 people, including 335 in Savannah, making it the sixth deadliest hurricane in the United States. 1883: Krakatoa Volcano exploded in the East Indies. The explosion was heard more than 2500 miles away, and every barograph around the world recorded the passage of the airwave, up to seven times. Giant waves, 125 feet high and traveling 300 mph, devastated everything in their path, hurling ashore coral blocks weighing up to 900 tons, and killing more than 36,000 persons. Volcanic ash was carried around the globe in thirteen days producing blue and green suns in the tropics, and vivid red sunsets in higher latitudes. The temperature of the earth was lowered one degree for the next two years, finally recovering to normal by 1888. 1893 - The first of three great hurricanes that year struck South Carolina drowning more than 1000 persons in a tidal surge at Charleston. (David Ludlum) 1893: An estimated Category 3 hurricane made landfall near Savannah, Georgia on this day. This hurricane produced a high storm surge of 16 to 30 feet which cost the lives of 1,000 to 2,000 people. As of now, this storm is one of the top 5, deadliest hurricanes on record for the USA. 1948: A late season heat wave was underway from parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Other daily records included: Huntington, WV: 103°, Baltimore, MD: 102°, Cleveland, OH: 102°, New York (Central Park), NY: 101°, New York (Kennedy Airport), PA: 101°, Columbus, OH: 100°, Bridgeport, CT: 100°, Boston, MA: 100°, Portland, ME: 100°, Washington, DC: 99°, Richmond, VA: 98°, Buffalo, NY hit their all-time maximum temperature of 99 °F for August. (Ref. Many Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link) 1964 - Hurricane Cleo battered Miami and the South Florida area. It was the first direct hit for Miami in fourteen years. Winds gusted to 135 mph, and the hurricane caused 125 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1965: Hurricane Betsy is born in the Atlantic. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1970 - Elko, NV, was deluged with 3.66 inches of rain in just one hour, establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1971: Tropical Storm Doria was moving up the East Coast. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) (Ref. More Information About Doria) 1973: Largest hailstone ever recorded in Canada hit Cedoux, Saskatchewan. This stone was 4.5 inches in diameter and weighed a pound. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1986: August snow in Michigan ? Not much, but it did happen. Weather observers in Gwinn and Negaunee noted a few snow pellets mixed in a rain shower. In Sault Ste. Marie, a mix of snow and rain was the first observed August snow since records began in 1888. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 1987 - Washington D.C. soared to a record hot 100 degrees, while clouds and rain to the north kept temperature readings in the 50s in central and southeastern New York State. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Thunderstorms in eastern New Mexico produced wind gusts to 75 mph near the White Sands Missile Range, and produced three inches of rain in two hours near the town of Belen. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and Missouri. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail south of Belleville KS, and tennis ball size hail south of Lincoln NE. Thunderstorms produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 70 mph at Saint Joseph MO. Thunder- storms in North Dakota deluged the town of Linton with six inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990: New York City had a bout of severe weather. The Bronx received 4.24 inches of rain. A wind gust of 61 mph moved through LaGuardia Airport. At Nassau, 12 people were injured from an overturned boat. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1994: The "Big Flats Tornado" was a F3 tornado as it rolled through the town of Big Flats, WI and caused $1 million dollars in damage. 24 homes were destroyed, eight suffered major damage, and 160 had light to moderate damage. In addition, the Big Flats Fire Department and town hall were destroyed, as well as a thrift shop. 70 cows were crushed to death in one barn as the walls blew out and the upper floor, filled with 16,000 bales of hay, and the roof collapsed. This was one of the first tornadoes detected by the new WSR-88D installed at Sullivan, WI. In addition to this tornado, two other F1 tornadoes touched down on this date just south of Lyndon Station, WI and just southeast of Plainville, WI. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1995: 17.01 inches of rain fell at Antreville, SC from the remnants of Tropical Storm Jerry, setting a new 24 hour rainfall record for the state. 12.32 inches of rain fell at Greer, SC from the remnants of Tropical Storm Jerry, setting new 24 hour rainfall record for Greer. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1998: Hurricane Bonnie passed just east of Cape Fear, NC late on the 26th and made landfall near Wilmington, NC on the 27th as a Category 2 hurricane. Bonnie would be the first of 7 (3 hurricane and 4 tropical storms) named tropical systems to make landfall in the United States during the very busy hurricane season of 1998 (the most since 1985). The final bill: $720 million in damage. 3 people were killed by the storm. One of the biggest victims of Bonnie was the tourism industry in eastern North Carolina. The storm forced over 500,000 visitors to flee in advance of the storm. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 2002: A stationary thunderstorm over the foothills of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming produced rainfall totals of up to 7.4 inches in six hours. The excessive rains produced severe flash flooding that damaged most of the homes and businesses in Kaycee, WY. As bad as the damage was, experts say that if the rainfall had been centered 10 miles further north, the town of Kaycee would have been totally destroyed. Severe thunderstorms spread large hail over metro Denver, CO. Hail up to two inches in diameter fell in Jefferson County 5 to 11 miles northwest of Golden. A storm produced a trace of rain and a microburst wind gust to 52 mph at Denver International Airport. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: Southern Michigan to Washington, DC on August 26th and 27th: A derecho associated with a cluster of severe thunderstorms affects parts of Michigan and states eastward to Washington, DC. Strong winds leave hundreds of thousands of customers without electrical power, just weeks after the Great Blackout of 2003. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2005: Hurricane Katrina reached Category 3 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico about 335 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph. 2009: New London, Iowa: In New London in southeast Iowa's Henry County, 8.34 inches of rain fell---7.20 inches of it in just four hours. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2011: Irene made landfall Saturday morning at Cape Lookout, N.C. — a bull's-eye in the field of weather forecasts. The high wind gust today was 52 mph at 17:53 hours and new record wind speed for this station. (Records since September 2008) The Richmond International Airport recorded a wind gust to 71 mph. The Richmond International Airport highest gust during Isabel was 73 mph. Irene was certainly the worst wind storm since Isabel for the Richmond area and about 75 percent of the Richmond area is without power. The West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen VA. total rainfall today was 3.75 inches a calendar day record rainfall for this station. (Records since August 2008) The precip. for today was 0.08 inches & for Aug. 6.65 inches and the average precipitation to Aug. 28 is 3.69 inches giving a departure of + 2.96 inches. The storm total was 3.83 inches and 24 hour total which sets a new record for the most precipitation in 24 hours. (Records since August 2008) Also two large trees down in our neighbors yard.(The West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen VA. Weather Station) (Ref. The Weather Nut - NWS at Wakefield - See Map of Irene's Track ) 2013 - Numerous severe thunderstorms brought large hail along with wind gusts from 60 to 90 mph to parts of north central and northeast South Dakota. Numerous trees were downed along with many structures damaged. Eighty mph winds near Polo in Hand County snapped off two large cottonwood trees. Ninety mph winds snapped numerous trees off at their base along with destroying a garage and tipping several campers over onto their side at Cottonwood Lake near Redfield. 2017: Harvey was a Category 4 hurricane at its peak. It has since been downgraded to a tropical storm. But the hurricane scale is based on wind speed, not volume of water, and Harvey has continued to funnel tremendous amounts of moisture into Texas. As homes across the metro region filled with waist-deep water, rescuers scoured flooded inner city streets and subdivisions in kayaks, fishing boats and inflatable rafts, plucking families to safety. “Hurricane Harvey has effectively turned south and central Texas into a lake the size of Michigan,” Brad Kieserman, vice president of disaster operations and logistics for the Red Cross, told NPR. “This is as catastrophic as you could possibly imagine from a Category 4 storm.” (The NWS said Monday the 28th that parts of Harris County had seen 30 inches of rain.) (15 inches of rain and more to come) (Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas) (Satellite-before-Landfall on the 24-25 landfall near Rockport, Texas) 2020: Hurricane Laura moves In land(Ref. NWS and Radar by Weather Underground ) (Ref. CNN -Cat 4- Hurricane - Wind Damage Severe )

HRRR is quite active for this region today with multiple rounds of storms

76 / 69 clouds and storms over NNJ - NYC. Warm / humid with storms and some delivering heavy rain 1-2/3 inches locally. We'll see how much clears out tomorrow with lingering scattered or isolated showers. Weekend looks great and then the ridge / heights rise and build in 8/30 and beyond. Ridge position key to any onshore component but overall warm - above to much above normal through and beyond Labor day with the period to watch for late season heat in the 9/2 - 9/5 timeframe. Also see if tropical activity buils into the Caribbean.

Another day slipping away.

Sunnier than I expected to start the day. Looks like some light rain came thru predawn. Storms later?

Witnesses report a truck with Maryland tags driving through the blizzard with a half dozen sleep deprived crazy dudes making snow videos. " They had all the windows open and a bunch of Beethoven music blasting out. Crazy. They're not gonna be here all winter are they?"

Stormy morning. Round one passed and a another cell is aiming this direction. Mammatus clouds present in the sky this morning around these storms. 0.3" in the gauges last I checked.

Well don’t Mets look at data and models ?

I think the biggest difference is, during those recent dead August's, the primary limiting culprit was abnormally high SAL. That hasn't been an issue this year, yet the basin has remained so hostile in the upper levels that even strong waves with solid moisture envelopes have failed to develop. The cap got blown off in those previous seasons because SAL decreased heading into September. This year, there are no indications the shear will subside (but for windows as your forecast notes) and it won't be so much of a "back loaded" season more than a wave finding a small window during peak climo. Also, there is some science to back Nina seasons being more back-loaded than Nino seasons. With almost 0 activity to this point, just few storms might appear to make this look back loaded, but I seriously doubt we see the cap come off like in recent years with frequent high-end development through September or even beyond. With Nino strengthening, I actually could see an early end to the season as well. It only takes 1, and with water temp anomalies off the SE coast running about the highest in the basin, that is of concern, but it is going to take perfect timing and a thread the needle type event to get a system through to take advantage. The rest of the basin is likely cooked besides some low-end development, like 96L

Two things that can work in our favor for severe weather later in the season are more robust mid-latitude systems producing better dynamics and of course tropical systems. I am pretty doubtful we'll get tropical impacts this year - but certainly the first factor could play into it. September 24, 2001 comes to mind as a clear cut example of fall severe events here. Get a robust shortwave or closed H5 low and weird things can happen. Even as late as November we can get a super dynamic system (the type where the storms come up form the SW to the NE instead of NW to SE and give us brief spin ups and damaging wind along a squall line. ETA: And don't forget those weird January/February events we've seemingly seen a few of over the past decade or so where we get a random slight or enhanced to cover some weird cold season dynamic event.

The slight east has been expanded eastward. Will be a fun day into MA/CT

Same here. I've been wanting to dig into this more too but I'm really curious as to the LA Nina events of 2017-2018, 2020-2021, and 2021-2022...for some reason these seasons exhibit some larger spread in the trimonthly numbers versus the traditional ONI and ENS-ONI. Even 2025-2026 I think had this to some degree.

Honestly, I used the weather app every day. Use it as a first glance. Then if I see anything of interest (such as today’s 45% of rain). I’ll actually look at a model. And then learn that the chance of rain or rather impactful rain is much lower.

.31" here so far. Didn't cancel soccer practice at the HS

I'm not quite sure how 96L hasn't been classified as at least a depression. It looks better formed than several TS's from earlier this season on the morning visible and one would think after how close it was on ASCAT yesterday and given marked improvement since, it would definitely qualify as a tropical cyclone. As for intensity, it is probably a TS given information yesterday had some TS wind barbs and it has only improved since. Me thinks this gets named at 11...