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OK so I was able to only include NE states but it had to be limited to the current month

Euro backing off of the heat coming later this week. GFS a little warmer but nothing big. Looking like quite a bit of cool (some 40’s) still in the cards heading into the later part of the month with eastern troughing back at it again.

Nice tropical downpour came through my yard about 30 minutes ago. I see puddles and standing water. Wow!

So peas?

The daily data base is way to big. Still working on it

Big hail holy shit

May 1-10 is finishing with a mean temperature of 58.8° in Central Park. That is 1.6° below normal. Some additional showers and a thundershower are possible late tonight. Much of next week will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 60s. Additional showers are possible on Thursday as a warm front moves northward. There remains a risk that the front could stall for a time. Friday could see temperatures return to the 70° or above should the front clear the region. It will turn warmer during the weekend. Parts of the area could reach or exceed 80° on Saturday and especially Sunday. In the long-range, there has been a shift in the guidance toward a near or somewhat warmer than normal second half of May. The probability of a warmer than normal second half of May has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around April 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.47°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. El Niño conditions will likely develop during late spring or early summer. The SOI was +1.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.109 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.0° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Hailing!!!!!

Sure

Different story up here. With a high of only 66, it was more of a damp feeling than a humid one. Borderline jacket weather for me. As for rain, only 0.01" so far.

next 4 days wont make it to 70..

The last real multi-year drought in the Northeast was in the 1960s. Every time we get dry for like 6 months, it all comes crashing back wet to make up the difference. The presence of drought itself somehow have morphed into "not supposed to happen" or "it is unusual." Really? 10-15% of the CONUS in in drought on avg at any one time. This is normal. And by default, drought means lack of rain to the MSM. No, it doesn't. Socioeconomic drought is due to poor land/water management or infrastructure not keeping up w/ the water demand in a region.

Just had a thundershower here, nothing dramatic, a fair amount of lightning and thunder not too far away. Wasn't really expecting it, lol. 0.15" of rain so far (still raining). Well take it, thanks! Eta, 72F currently, down from 77.

Typical rain set up for my area again. Splitting the two lines will see if the back one makes it here intact.

+IOD development. And it’s going to be off to the races….

Some rain every day this month, current total 0.99". At that rate we would finish May about 0.9" BN. If so, it would make 11 BN months in the most recent 12. April had 98% of average thanks to 1.18" on the 30th. The previous 10 months (June-March) were at 61% of average, and met summer's 5.29" was the driest of 28 by 1.95", and only 41% of average. Things aren't bad now, but another such summer might cause problems. The afternoon line of precip split north and south in order to miss here. Were not progged to get much anyway.

we cloud to ground and instant boom!

Two cloud-to-cloud rumbles… severe!!

Poured here for about 10 mins an hour ago with a couple claps of thunder. Second line coming through now with light rn so far. Ground is so dry it soaked up the first batch w/o any runoff.

I finally put the snow thrower in the shed, usually wait until the first weekend in May. Turned into a really nice day in the lower valley, cleaned the garage and washed 2 cars including my daily driver antique Honda, which came out nice:

One year ago: do Atlanta area, other N GA, and W Carolina peeps remember what happened? It was quite an unusual event and a pretty big deal!

Couple close strikes wasn't expecting this

Helping fuel showers and storms in southern Lanco. .

Summer is on the way

Sunny this morning in Deep Creek so I was able to get a round of golf in. It’s absolutely pouring right now though.