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My first guess for central Montco is 6-10". Obviously subject to change.

Good morning from DFW. Since lived in Rocky Mount NC up until 2017, I still enjoy keeping with the SE forum. We are at the very beginnings of the event here just beside the airport. I work in Irving TX. Currently around 49 * and light to moderate rain. Temps aren't expected to be dropping here until early evening and overnight. That said, the guy I pay attention to most on the TX weather thread on the Central/Western sub forum thinks we are in for a significant amount of sleet in the area. I will post again when things get interesting here. I know there can be a correlation btw DFW and NC weather so it will be fun to see how that works.

Haywood emc is usually pretty good at keeping our right of way cut back pretty good. The only thing that worries me is Duke powers transmission lines Duke sucks at keeping up maintenance on those lines.

Did nobody post the warning text for us? Wow, we really are fatigued. Don't blame anyone. Only gonna bother sharing the one for DC/Balt

WB 12Z RRFS

12+ for the entire region Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

I’m in the camp that the DC area gets the floor and the Baltimore area gets the ceiling.

Are ratios solely based on surface temps, assuming there isn’t an above freezing warm nose?

Possible depending on the individual location, their DPW, etc. Further east seems more likely

Trending the way it has today sucks, I guess its turning into another boring 2-4 maybe 3-6.

Internal snow ratio gives both DC and Baltimore 9 inches, FWIW. Kuchera is 8.

Going with 6-10” for my area.

for some reason the excitement is fading......for SOMOCO

It's not from just one storm - it's happened many, many times over multiple decades in Central NJ. When the mix line or changeover stays south, we often jackpot. But it's very common for us to get 4-6 inches less than from the southern and far eastern portions of Middlesex County to the northern and and further inland portions

Find you someone who loves you as much as this board loves obsessing over the worst possible outcome from any one model in a particular suite ahead of a winter event no matter how unreliable that model is at range...

say what you want, but he remains the consummate professional

Going to be a nowcast event.

ICON is a massive hit across the board

The NAM 3km flips us over to sleet here around 2pm ... that would be lousy.

And/or ratios higher than 10:1?...

that one actually had backend snows though... for me the classics are march 94 and march 2017. that 94 storm was brutal; like the house was being sandblasted. unlike this one, temps were more marginal so it was slushy on bottom; try shoveling 5-6 inches of that.....

Great test for the NAM replacement. RRFS is what the NWS must be leaning on....orientation of the precip shield is much better. DC gets heavier snow 4-9am Sunday.

Kuchie gets Baltimore to a foot. Would be a dream. But probably a couple inches too many. Knock off 2 and I still abscond with that a million percent of the time.

not just that storm... 40 years of watching these overruning events...thump to sleet to snizzle...the end part usually dry slots and we get less qpf than forecast the rgem is what I think will happen for me at least

WARNED URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1020 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND... PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058- 240915- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0002.260125T0300Z-260126T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0001.260125T0300Z-260126T1800Z/ Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Schuylkill- Including the cities of Bloomsburg, Coudersport, Lewistown, Warren, Lewisburg, Philipsburg, Mount Union, Altoona, Lock Haven, Johnstown, Wellsboro, St. Marys, Clearfield, State College, Huntingdon, Laporte, Mansfield, Emporium, Sunbury, Berwick, Trout Run, Pottsville, Danville, Williamsport, DuBois, Mifflintown, Selinsgrove, Shamokin, Renovo, Bradford, and Ridgway 1020 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 18 inches. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 10 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. Widespread and prolonged travel disruptions are expected. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will overspread the area late Saturday night, becoming heavy at times through Sunday with accumulation rates of one to two inches per hour at times. Frigid temperatures and wind chills are expected before, during, and after the winter storm. Some blowing and drifting snow is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Persons should consider delaying all travel. Motorists should use extreme caution if travel is absolutely necessary. && $$