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Can not deny this pattern’s been going on for a few months now where guidance keeps wanting to push a ridge into the northeast and it keeps not happening. With our luck this will flip just when we need it to happen for snow chances. But look at our area and the northeast for Friday evening vs a few days ago.

LOL what

I love how Jay is reporting 38-55" in the last 7 days. Quite a range!

Ill take it November 2018 and December 2019 are anomalies then?

January is looking a little bit better from what I see. Updated: BWI: 23.5" DCA: 16.2" IAD: 27.0" RIC: 11.3" ----- SBY: 13.2"

WTTTE

Well, only if it’s an active pattern.

I’ve been reading The Shining as I’ve always meant to. Despite it being a horror novel I get envious at all the snow falling at the Overlook Hotel in the book.

Yep, growing up in High Point, I remember frigid football games in late October. Where you needed the hot chocolate and a blanket in the stands.

There’s a meme for that.

I'm telling you, my Dad is up there making calls.

Have to watch for for what looks to be a 50/50 low which really works to compress the heights across the Northeast. Interesting to see how that plays out. The overall structure of the pattern though does favor at least near average temperatures but more than likely above. This feature could mute that, for a brief period anyway. There is going to be a lot of moving pieces (fast moving weak systems) embedded in the flow so like Will said...NNE might be able to cash in on something

This is when my Dad started to get excited about weather. Hopefully he's up there pulling some strings for snow.

whatever you say

That warm up for next week has gotten very muted…

First week of December is the earliest to see anything interesting I think. Maybe the interior CNE and northward could see something Tday week if things broke right.

Had 2.4" from 0.33" LE yesterday. 1.6" by 7 AM, hours of DZ (some freezing) then 0.8" mid-aft, most between 3-4 PM. Nice to have "real" cover, though I don't expect things to remain white this month.

Sh*t can pop anytime once we hit the end of November.

Any snow at all at any time of the year is gravy pretty much for central park/I95ers south of new england now.

Seems like to what extent there will be winter threats they’ll be focused on front end SWFE types and Miller Bs. They’re the best for New England, can be okay here and usually shut out south of the M/D line and west of NJ. Maybe there can be more suppressed systems like last year that can hit the places the Miller B and SWFE don’t.

The NBC broadcast showed snow falling. It was light and it was too warm for it to stick. But they still got snow.

2.4" yesterday at 390', overnight had 1.6" of 7:1 cornmeal, then another 0.8" after noon, most in 3-4 PM moist (8:1) feathers. Saw where the deer had been last night, but none seen while I had the rifle out there this morning.

Boring stretch coming up. Maybe we pop something exciting for early December.

Most ensembles have cold in here by the weekend after Thanksgiving. EPS is slowest end of that weekend. Some AI versions have it by Black Friday. Weekly products have the cold pattern lasting 2-3 weeks now, a marked change from the quick hit shown last week. Strato situation is trying to reflect at 500 mb which is also a cold signal. MJO actually comes around about Dec 1st, but will then line up with other signals for cold. Check of the Physical Science Lab PSL Map Room: Global Circulation (Quick Menu): NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory shows the table being set after we get past the warm North America (here late week, early next week). True Arctic surface press is quite high. Part of Siberia is getting cold north of the Kazakhstan warmth. Eventually we'll look for higher pressure into Siberia from the Arctic, and for it to get into more of Alaska. Note a small cold patch is already in western AK. 7-day surface press anomaly red is high 7-day temp anomaly blue is cold