All Activity

I am hoping for slightly less above normal until mid October. The high 90's to 100's have been rough especially with the humidity we have been getting. I think 2009 it was hot until Halloween and then it fell on it's face and got cold? I hope we get slightly less hot sooner than that.

Below is a snapshot of both the raw actual annual average temperatures and the NCEI adjusted for Chester County PA over the last 10 years from 2016-2025. Both trend lines show a cooling period is underway but neither line is statistically significant. Could this indeed be the start of our next cooling cycle in our never ending cycle of climate change?

Thanks Mike!!

Had a quick shower this afternoon. Big, fat raindrops for about five minutes. Helped make things steamy... not in the good way.

Definitely expect some adjustments over the next 2 months...hopefully not in the wrong direction. After that, it's December with the daily weeklies update! What a drug this hobby can be! Lol

A low of 51.5F early this morning. Quite refreshing! I see the Mount Pocono airport got down to a crisp 39F.

This should be pretty accurate, so forecast maybe about right for the northeast and could be a hair warm south of about DC....but another trend we have seen is for the ridges to verify south of forecast, which places "too cool" on the able for the NE forecast, if that were to be the case.

I never expect cooler weather anyways till the first 5 or 10 days of October, September for the most part is still warm and humid here but on occasion you do get lucky and it cools sooner.

What’s this on the 12Z UKMET? For the first time, it has a TC (TD) in the C Gulf late in the run with it moving slowly WNW and strengthening: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 25.0N 90.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 22.09.2026 156 25.0N 90.4W 1008 23 1200UTC 22.09.2026 168 25.5N 91.7W 1005 31

Who hacked your account Chuck? You're making me nervous with your positivity.

way too early 8 days out is an eternity...OP models are not good after about day 5

good interview here about Nats pitching with my man Sean Doolittle (go hoos!!!) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sean-doolittle-talks-washington-nationals-pitching/

that's a good point - might take some time to get right if trust issues like this are at play.

75 degrees and partly sunny in Winston in the afternoon is what we prayed for

It comes down to the position of the ridge, which should be over se Canada, so I doubt it will be too warm in the NE. Maaaaaaybe the se....... 23-24 it was over se Canada, so it was too cool anywhere near that ridge. Last year it was too cool in the SW, under the ridge.

Never argue with a March map like that one! Lol It has been consistent fwiw.

Euro was too cool in 23/24 in the east, then too warm in 24/25 and again last winter. I really don't know what to think about this winter except it's a bit warmer than Jamstec, Cfs2, NMME and JMA. I think the Cansips is a bit behind the curve and will eventually look like the rest of seasonal modeling, more or less.

Check out this insanity: the latest 3 day mean CFSv2 has not just the most negative H5 anomalies of DJFM in March but even the absolutes are the most negative! And it’s been that way on a good # of 3 day means! Dec: highest H5 absolutes and anomalies of DJFM: March: lowest H5 absolutes and anomalies of DJFM as they steadily cool from Dec to March! The absolutes for March are 5-15 dm lower than that for Dec over most of the E US! Does this look reasonable? The 2m absolutes aren’t the coldest though although they’re not far off in some portions. I couldn’t find a Nino with the coldest absolutes of the winter in March though I found many with a solidly cold March. The only winters on record with the coldest absolutes of NDJFM being March in the E US overall are 1890, 1932, and 1960 (all non-Nino). I guess we’re due fwiw.

lol

51 for the low

Try the model output for today instead of 5 days ago

Yes. as of today they have increased the chance of further formation to 40 to 60% In the next seven days, and it's moving W to WNW. We may end up having to keep an eye this puppy.

I missed that one, got a link to what's showing that?