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Green to neutral areas. At least relative to average. The 21-0 +1.11 monthly NAO streak means we will have to buck a strong trend though.

Lots of snowfall where?

It has been a while since warnings have covered that large of an area. The line was moving it. It has came though Gate City/Weber City area. Wind isn’t too bad at least. I don’t feel the HRRR handled today’s earlier convection and MCS well at all.

Lots of snowfall, if the -NAO and -AO can sustain.

https://twitter.com/paulroundy1/status/2087329199317012723?s=46&t=JYOHM881b6groqc0-RqtxA

Severe Thunderstorm watch for Boone north.

Well it is Augdewst

With this super El Nino, -AO, possible -NAO, what sort of weather patterns will they lead to in the US?

Congrats on winning , life , and everything

Yeah looks like a lot of the mountains are going to see that Dercho from up in Kentucky blow through here around 11 it looks like.

Well the chiggers are somewhat avoidable by staying out of high brush and the woods, although no guarantee. I don't do anything with soil this time of year, like digging/ planting anything. They become inactive once the temp gets below 60F. I wait until Fall.

^CFS, CANSIPS, and ECMWF are all showing a Winter -NAO. We haven't really had a DJFM -NAO in 14 years. We've had 21 winter months >+1.11 and 0 months <-1.11 in that time. Going for it: N. Atlantic SSTA's May-Aug so far are slightly negative. El Nino does generally support a warmer Stratosphere. Going against it: Decadal cycle is still near a peak. Descending Solar Cycle (+1-5 years after Solar Max +NAO is favored, and this last Max was a pretty high one). +QBO. I think a -AO for the Winter is more probable than -NAO, but it was only 17 years ago that the lowest NAO on record since the 1800s happened during an El Nino. I also think that seasonal models are overestimating the effects of -NAO. The Pacific is usually the stronger player, and since 2019 that has been the case at +0.25 correlation vs before.

.29” here. Wouldn’t hate a bit more but every little bit helps you get through a heat wave.

These amazing maps are so much fun to look at and dream about:

Actually nice here 76°/60° . A few miles from West even better.

I just don't know that it is an El Nino STJ change to the drier cycle that we are in, yet. August has also been wet.

What I realized is Adam is a bright young man, but he is severely mentally ill. When I realized that and got a handle of my own mental illness, I stopped hating him. I strongly believe Adams DMN (default mode network) is overactive, which is linked to increased rumination, self monitoring and various psychiatric conditions. Thats not good. I have a similar issue myself so I’m not judging him for this. I genuinely hope he gets better. He needs radical cutting edge experimental treatments to rewire his brain and dampen general DMN activity. I suspect he also struggles with lowered connectivity between distant brain areas within the DMN, and struggles to shut it off when switching from rest to active and demanding tasks. This specific configuration of DMN dysregulation in Adam’s brain leads to undesirable psychiatric symptoms like difficulty with perspective taking and inconsistent self reflection, intrusive self monitoring, poor working memory (since so much of his cognitive bandwidth is consumed by his obsessions), cognitive looping (restricted/repetitive posts about “snow weenies” on his X page), difficulty redirecting attention, and a tendency to drift inward. Psychiatric interventions for this suboptimal DMN configuration include psychedelic assisted therapy with ayahuasca or psilocybin, meditation, TMS, ketamine assisted therapy, or mindfulness based neurofeedback. Adam’s posts will not be missed by me either, but I hope he says fuck it and pursues radical treatment options to fundamentally rewire his brain rather than just learning to cope with symptoms. Traditional psychiatry likely will not work in this case, this presentation is consistent with more treatment resistant psychiatric conditions. A couple of the interventions for this are illegal, but if traditional psychiatry fails, stepping outside the law and taking matters into your own hands is justified. I’m not just saying this, I am pursuing several of the above interventions to fix my own brain, as my own DMN is overactive which has caused several undesirable psychiatric symptoms that did not respond to traditional meds and talk therapy. I hope Adam realizes the gravity of his situation like I did with mine, and takes the same steps.

Hey

That green area is too close for comfort

Sad when you can say temps around 80 and dews in the mid 60s feels comfortable at 730pm

Absolute deluge here right now. Ridiculous.

Yeah they were way worse in Michigan than even this year down here so I know they survive cold. This year is just anomalously bad here, it's like some sort of boom cycle. They bite me and as they bite me it hurts so is obnoxious. But after that I never get any sort of bump or itchy welt like I used to when I was a kid. I also used to get covered in chigger bites for the first couple years when I moved down here but now I don't even get one all summer. Guess my immune system has just gotten lazy with age and doesn't even bother mounting a response anymore.

Upton has storms rolling in again later tonight. KEY MESSAGES... 1) Two rounds of showers and thunderstorms with marginal severe thunderstorm possibility through early Wednesday morning. CAMs indicate two sets of convection that move across the region. One generates late this afternoon with the low level instability and cold frontal forcing, moving from NW to SE across mostly the western half of the region. The second one has more uncertainty and occurs late tonight. Some CAMs have a convective complex moving across the area, mainly across western sections while others having it more to the south of the region.