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  2. Damage In Tolland
    Couple weeks? lol. Won’t freeze thru Tgiving
  3. moneypitmike
    Perfect October day. 61* and not a cloud in sight at Pit2.
  4. moneypitmike
    Why are you watering things that are going to be frozen and dead in a couple weeks? #wasteoftime
  5. nvck
    close to 70 here, thanks to a stiff S wind. Watching wednesday for a potential record high (current is 72), and the NWS point is 71.
  6. winterwx21
    Got down to 33 here this morning. That was a close call, but the plants in the vegetable garden look ok.
  7. MarcmmKU
    Early Nov looks quite torch. the overnight lows are what the daytime highs should be in that timeframe... mid to upper 50s.
  8. psv88
    I have a tarp on mine. I moved it further away we’ll see what happens
  9. NorthShoreWx
    My early fall issue is proximity to a much much larger pool.
  10. mitchnick
    I'm not defending the Cfs2, but all the models have their share of major fails and/or persistent biases at one time or another. That said, the point of my post was that the Cfs2 was confirming your call. You don't want confirmations from modeling for your calls? Fine....Chuck the models say you suck! Lol You know I'm just bustin' chops.
  11. frontranger8
    Picked up .07" yesterday.
  12. Today
  13. jaxjagman

    ENSO

    jaxjagman replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    The MJO into the IOD,which still is having some effect on the ENSO,by waves,the MJO regardless how you look at it into the thermocline isnt getting stronger,its slowly weakening right now Right now,it still looks like the MJO is going to be probably stick into the IO the next couple weeks and just being getting destructive interfernce form Rossby and Kelvin waves.You can really see a Rossby Wave moving in the East pac moving east to west,the next several days just as much with the aide of a KW,least that what it seems right now,today
  14. Stormchaserchuck1
    I think @GaWx has done some research that it is tied into cooler mid-Winter conditions, I think -AO tendency. We had one around the same time last year, and I believe he used it to forecast a cooler Dec and Jan. I think we want November Stratosphere warmings because they correlate with -AO 30-45 days later. Something not a lot of people know though is in the DJFM mean, warm Stratosphere has direct correlation with above average temps, in the Northeast, US, and cold Stratosphere - below average temps, in the mean-Winter-total
  15. Stormchaserchuck1
    I posted on a Western US wx board in 2024 and 2025. One of the members there was obsessed with the CFS, kept posting from Aug-Oct several runs showing -38F departure monthly, yes -38f, in the PNW for Dec in 2024. Then it did it again in 2025, -38F! Dec 2024 and 2025. Seattle/Portland, etc. This is how it verified
  16. stormy
    28.2 at 7 am.
  17. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  18. Eskimo Joe
    Does timing of an autumnal or early winter SSW have any implication on the favorability for a colder/wetter season? Is this something that we want to have happen as early and strongly as possible, or wait until later on?
  19. Snowcrazed71
    Not sure if I'm posting this in the right section, although we haven't started November obs yet). Curious of thoughts on this as I've seen this being tossed around by more seasoned METs now?
  20. Stormchaserchuck1
    Nov-March 10mb Regression with ENSO It actually comes out to 73% chance of having above average Stratosphere vs below average in El Nino, and visa-versa That doesn't even include 23-24, which had 4 separate SWs. I haven't done research on if an early in the year event correlates with later on SSWs, but they usually do happen in bunches or not at all, because it's correlated to consistencies like QBO and ENSO. Filtering those out, it would be interesting to know what the numbers are indeed!
  21. Damage In Tolland
    Just watered the garden ! Stein out there
  22. snowman19
    Traditional ONI, RONI, absolute SST……
  23. michsnowfreak
    Not here...thank goodness! I notice all the snowfall maps are the models interpretation at a 10-1 ratio. The last two winters here had almost all powder. Even assuming more wet snow this winter, its not a bad look at all.
  24. Intensewind002
    Only 39 for the low here Edit: 38.5 to be exact
  25. uofmiami
    My Muttontown station is probably 15 feet or so from the pool on the pool patio edge. I don’t know what the temp of the pool is but I know it’s not being heated.
  26. WxWatcher007
    We're probably done in the basin for this season unless there's something rogue in the subtropics. Time to start working on the grade for my peak season forecast.
  27. Terpeast
    I think the more interesting question is whether an early SSWE usually leads to another strat event/PV disription later in the season. Especially during el nino winters.
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