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Ok, time for dinner prep. Ugly run. Maybe it'll recover in later panels. Bye

I absolutely expect this. It's not a setup like, say, the Jan. 2016 blizzard that was locked in consistently on every single model a week in advance where the only issue was how much and whether we'd get sleet as well as a ton of snow. As long as the main overall idea is there with a decent wave throwing moisture into very cold air remains consistent and doesn't get can-kicked, that's good right now in my opinion. Individual deterministic runs will vary all over the place, as expected right now, and hopefully ensembles will still be hammering that time frame.

Hard to see 8” back into the deeper interior.

The models are absolutely horrible with tomorrow’s event it’s just been atrocious

Sign me up! Seems high. I’m more in the 1-2 camp but who knows.

Yeah, it's gonna be too warm. This one in this run is cooked

Thanks for the clarification. I was not aware of that. It seemed to me after a road is brined the road just stays wet and doesn't ice over until it get too diluted or washes off.

these small events are hard to pin down.

Moisture starting to develop in the middle of the country...finger pointing toward us..but thermals look worse than 12z so far...BUT CAD not getting started yet

it may be too warm on the HH GFS.

Yeah, it's def there...just not as strong..which may not be a bad thing? We'll see

Mesos are throwing more precip back this way. NAM, RGEM, RRFS all have an advisory event here

Not at all. 4-8 is the range

Stj energy is still there. This might be one of those longtrack systems/patterns that flip flops for a few more days.

I’m looking for bitchin nachos. Any suggestions

I checked in this morning and it looked like a last minute hail Mary might be in the works region wide with much of the 6z suite but I guess that unraveled right on schedule later on. Glad today worked out here in death valley.

Likely go together, further east less dynamics warmer solution, better dynamics would lead to a colder solution.

Sw in the pacific off of cali cut off, whereas before it was phasing in with another s/w. Maybe not a bad thing. There is still another s/w that phased into it..or whatever...but it's weaker so far. Nothing jumps out attm

Stuff starts vanishing as soon as it stops falling lol Entering the big dog or spring stage of winter fatigue here

Winter as it should be. Great photo.

Cold chasing moisture never works. It’s gonna be 38 and rain.

Cold day with temps in the teens. Lake effect compaction is real though. Down to about a 6” snow pack. I know you’re all feeling bad for me.