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2026-2027 Super El Nino
PhiEaglesfan712 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I can even see the el nino being so strong that it carries over into a 2nd year, but ending in fall 2027. This will give a head start to developing la nina, which peaks very strong in 2028-29, kind of like 1988-89. It will probably be a one-year la nina, but boy, will it be very strong. -
Dewgust 2026: Summer's Last Stand
Damage In Tolland replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Whole month overall looks warmish with war near EC. Any cooling will be mainly west of apps -
You limited your local review to only 3 chesco stations - My review with AI had more local stations than you including Sadsbury, Devault 1W, Kennett Square and Morgantown- I focused on only local stations in or on the immediate borders of chesco like Morgantown/Elverson to better identify if there is any actual support based on the raw data that was able to identify if any significant drifts occurred at any stations near Coatesville 1SW to suppor the NCEI chilling adjustments. The statistical analysis clearly does not support the NCEI adjustments for Coatesville 1SW
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Dewgust 2026: Summer's Last Stand
CoastalWx replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Yeah warm next week and then cooler post 10th. -
97-98 does show up as an analog for me but it’s vastly overwhelmed by more positive ones. 2010,11,12 had a lot of similarities to 2026 summer and spring. I’ve got about 5 more also but gotta find my notes
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E PA/NJ/DE Summer 2026 Obs/Discussion
Birds~69 replied to PhiEaglesfan712's topic in Philadelphia Region
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I’ve been working storm over here (Cook Co. Will Co. Lake Co. and DuPage Co.) since Monday night. Lots of damage. Will upload some pics soon.
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That Twins game is probably one of the most amazing finishes i've ever witnessed in baseball. Win Twins
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Most Super El Nino's in history had a +AO/+NAO. It's not actually as correlated as that, so the sample is biased a little warm.
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Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
WolfStock1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Indeed - not an expert on the subject but that's almost certainly the case. Not just better firefighting equipment so much, but better detection and tracking methods (primarily satellite). Of note is that, in the US at least, there are essentially no more manned fire towers - they're all just obsolete and for tourists these days. That plus there are more people living in areas that used to be remote, thus it's less likely that given fire will grow to unmanageable size before it gets noticed. To the subject at hand though - in general it's completely invalid to point to localized (time or region) flare-ups of wildfire activity and blame them on climate change, since the overall trend is downward. MMGW deniers will point to this and assume / assert that the data cherry-picking is done for all data. As such - my advice to anyone trying to use data to prove MMGW - don't use wildfire data, because it's not a valid indicator. - Today
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Up to 9.4 for the month at my station.
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An EF0 and an EF1 Posted the survey results in the Severe weather thread
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I left my car windows cracked thinking the worst was over My drive home will be slightly moist.
