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End of next week looking a lot less torchy on guidance. The PNA is headed to negative territory but that block just doesn’t want to budge. Valentine’s may be a severe event but we could also trend firmly into a cad/miller b type of look with just a few more tweaks.

Extreme Cold Watch Issued: 1:03 PM Feb. 5, 2026 – National Weather Service ...EXTREME COLD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Dangerously cold wind chills of 20 below possible. * WHERE...Portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York. * WHEN...From Saturday evening through early Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

ready 4 spring

Definitely a strong signal showing up at this range. Is the Nino finally kicking in w/ the STJ starting to show some life?

NAM got better for tomorrow too. Drops 1-3” rather than the C-1” it’s been showing.

I'm just glad to know we can still do long sustained cold in these parts... I was getting worried that transient cold was the new norm.

Me, Wxusaf and Cape.

Bravo! Well played!

On the Jersey shore I'm sure it does. To those of us to the north of NYC latitude I've always looked at the first two to three weeks of March as just another winter month. After the 20th or so I agree.

Seriously...take the climate stuff somewhere else. But just so we have the record straight and don't just cherry pick....Temps are BN for DJF so far as a whole for TRI. That is just fact. TRI just booked two record lows for February to start the month. Rivers here are frozen solid here, but I bet you maybe don't know that. The last time I remember that was 17-18. Temps have been BN as a base level since Jan 11. The first half of December was BN. Definitely was a torch right after Christmas with the chinook...but again, you are cherry picking stuff. Take the rest of this garbage to the climate forum or back to your forum wherever that is.

Who does the in person interview?

I am dead lol

As I posted this morning, the potential for a storm after the storm, around the 20th, is looking pretty interesting.

Now Mrs Iron took a sabbatical from thee until average daily high was 70 I believe?????????

Got around to creating these: Requirements for Main Long Range Threads: Submit a copy of last two pay stubs verifying north of 150,000/year salary Submit a copy of your junk science degree from your Shit-ass college Deed or lease from parent's basement. Immediate family and friends who'd qualify for "your mom" jokes are acceptable. Attach PM calling someone a coward, yella belly or use of such words as forthwith or toot suite. Pictures of all the girls/guys you've bagged without even trying man. Final requirement is in person interview where you should be able to recite this from memory to the tune of Yankee Doodle Dandy from Revolutionary war hero Franklin D'Angelo Roosevelt: Yankee Doodle Went to Town, Sending Angry Pee-eems Stuck a feather in his cap and thought that we won't see-emm. Yankee doodle keep it up, Yankee Doodle Dandy Mind the music and the step, and watch that coward Randy <Bridge> Yankee Doodle drove to town, at Capecod he was pissed Earning him a top notch spot on many ignore listsss Yankee Doodle., Nevermind, ran out of steam here. Or first verse of WAP will do.

HRRR really weenies it up for tomorrow night

When I wake up at 2am tomorrow morning to ponder how I can concoct baseless myths and empirically vapid one liners to post on American Weather, as is my custom, I'll be sure to provide more data for future posts. If I had known someone was going to come in here and accuse me of being part of some myth promulgation, I would have been more specific and offered an empirically sound and data driven assessment of the entire TN Valley watershed's 2m temperatures. A mausoleum must be more lively than in the other sub forums right now.

Guess they forgot lol

If you read the historical roundup and noted the heavy snowfall of 17.0" over three days in 1920 (Feb 4-6) adding 0.5" more on 7th for the 17.5" total mentioned, that must have included a load of sleet or freezing rain at times because all three days have over an inch of precip with snowfall values of 5 inches and change for each day ... a total of 4.41" liquid for 17.0" snow. If that liquid had fallen at 10:1 ratios there would have been 44.1 inches, plus the 0.5" on 7th that yielded only 0.02" liquid. (so 4.43" for 17.5", a ratio of just 4:1 for the entire event). These are the stats for all three days. The precip never set a daily record although the 5th would have broken the 6th daily record. The middle snowfall of 5.9" was a daily record also. I list the daily records because they all indicated other mixed events.. DATE ___ MAX _ MIN ____ PREC _ SNOW _____ Record daily precip FEB 4 ___ 33 __ 23 _____ 1.70 _____ 5.7 _______ 2.10" 1961 (major snowstorm 11.4"+6.0" 3rd) FEB 5 ___ 28 __ 24 _____ 1.31 _____ 5.9 _______ 1.43" 2014 (incl 4.0" snow after 8.0" and 1.17" prec on Feb 3rd) FEB 6 ___ 33 __ 26 _____ 1.40 _____ 5.4 _______ 2.74" 1896 (followed 3.5" snow 3rd-4th, no snow 6th) _ _ _ _ _ _______________________________________ temp 57F on Feb 6, 1896, subzero eleven days later. 1920 Also on today's date, in 1918 max of 4 and min of -6 ... the 4F reading is the lowest max ever for February and tied second with one other date (Dec 30, 1880) as second lowest max all-time after 2F Dec 30 1917. The lowest min for Feb on 9th, 1934 warmed back to 8F on that date, the previous day had a midnight high but was probably subzero by afternoon of 8th.

Of the winter.

I think it was -23F on the air temp and -42F on the wind chill? Interior of the tent was below zero but I can't remember how cold.

It appears to me you are developing a fever not conducive to traveling??!!

I will never forget your rundown of your tent and family when cabin being built . What were those inside and outside and wind numbers again please?

Lets be honest with each other- its probably right. The details might not be right- but we need to remember our climo as a snow town. The Mid Atlantic in winter is like watching a magnificent fish glide through water. Heck we even managed a snow and sleet storm at 16 degrees when the northern and southern streams phased over Kansas. I-95 is the opposite of cooked. Mountains have even more of a chance. I know you might weenie and tell me to go go to the Snow Bros Anonymous meeting. But am I wrong? Don't say I didn't warn you. This is the benefit of being in the MA, when its super cold it's congrats Bob Chill. When its marginal, it's congrats Georgetown. Any other circumstance and I've just got to take my 151k Denny's salary and rent a cabin out in West Virginia.

18z 12k NAM brings a nice refresher to Central Virginia and Hampton Roads tomorrow.