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I just hit 90, so it's a 6 day heat wave here!

another quote from another forum USTropics Professional-Met Posts: 2663 Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am Location: Florida State University Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion #419 by USTropics » Fri Aug 15, 2025 12:58 pm I feel much better about the Bahamas and United States after the 12z data has come in, we're looking at some potential squalls, significant riptides, and beach erosion as the main concern here for the islands and United States (Bermuda is still a bit unknown right now, but looking better). Here is the latest 10-run GFS trend with the 12z data (which has the strongest Erin yet in 72 hours): So basically the strength and position of the high pressure (red) and ridge extension (pink) determines the recurve alley (purple) here, not so much the strength of Erin. The best way to see potential scenarios is to look at the ensemble runs, and that will give us an idea of what different strengths of Erin means to the track. GEFS was the last remaining ensemble suite that was showing a more gradual turn to the north, and as a result some ensemble members were impacting the Bahamas or the potential for a Carolina scrape. The 12z GFS ensembles has only one remaining member that is doing this gradual turn now (and it does not impact the Bahamas or Carolinas directly): Compared to 06z ensembles: Here are 06z ECMWF ensemble members: 2 likes

WaveBreaking Category 2 Posts: 594 Joined: Sun Jun 30, 2024 11:33 am Location: US Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion #420 by WaveBreaking » Fri Aug 15, 2025 1:04 pm My take on Erin’s current environment.

No one’s fault but your own there . Was pretty obvious for a while this had no chance lol

Sudden pop-up shower over Fairfax City. Pouring at GMU right now. But patches of blue sky are still visible!

12Z HRRR and 3K NAM could hardly be more different with the timing and placement of convection over WI over the next 48 hours.

I lost sleep tracking this

Water dependant all summer long

This is about as clear a recurve pattern as you can get for the US east coast. Has been for days and days...

Just hit 90F. Only made it to 86F yesterday, so that's 3 out of the last 4 days at 90F or above. Maybe not an official heat wave, but heat wavey enough for me

Happy birthday Kat

From Dr. Viterito via JB 8/14/25: I've been keeping a very close eye on this area, as it has been a geothermal hotspot helping to feed the Kuroshio Current, the Pacific's equivalent to the Gulf Stream. Did you notice at the very end of the video the narrator talks about the fact that geothermal heating enables the major port to be ice-free year round and that the area is used as a submarine base? "The "culprit" here is the submarine activity of the Eastern Volcanic Front off the east coast of Kamchatka." As the map shows, there has been a tremendous amount of underwater seismic activity in this area for the past 30 days. For the record, there have been 1036 seismic events, the vast majority of which are associated with underwater magma displacement. Keep in mind, these magmas can reach temperatures of 400 degrees C! IRIS/Wilber 3, Mx >=3, July 15 - August 14, 2025. The water off the east coast of Kamchatka moves southward vis the Kamchatka current. Here is a map of this: Wikidata The Kamchatka Current then feeds the Kuroshio Current, and in this case, is providing exceptional warmth to the Kuroshio. This is starkly illustrated in today's sea surface temperature map. In this map the source region is clearly the southeast coast of Kamchatka, and we can see that excess warmth being transported by the Kamchatka Current, which then merges with the Kuroshio. By contrast, here is the seismic map for March, 2025. For that month, there were only 17 seismic events: IRIS/Wilber 3, Mx >=3, March 6, 2025 - April 5, 2025. Here is the resultant SST map (April 6, 2026 [sic]): Clearly, the "hot spot" was much weaker when the seismic activity was lower. It can be argued that the Kamchatka source region is responsible for the large temperature anomaly the Kuroshio is currently experiencing. It's about time the climate community starts to recognize the importance of geothermal inputs into the system. ————————— Any comments?

0.0% chance. Stop being stupid.

Won't be surprised if all these lot became bangers

It's called tracking the tropics with a pint at Spoons mate. Now let's watch Erin score some category 5 goals

I ran the numbers for 1995 and 1993 where summer mean temperature was weighted at 50% and where the remaining 50% weight was equally divided among the other three variables. In that case, 1993 tops 1995. 2010 remains at the top.

with this flow structure aloft? it would take more than God's will actually. It's more apt to say ...what we are looking at is God's will NOT to bring this TC to New England. This has been a stalwart consistent limitation for days and days and model run after model run, all but 100% ... all along, yet for some reason, some of you cannot seem to even see or sense the intuitive reason why it is impossible to bring a TC up to New England with polar jet drilling straight at the region. It's like believing the fake news that it's possible for an ice cream cone to survive a fire hose I guess. We live in an era where scientific advice, let alone learning, are allowably suspended. It's not your fault.

Lol: The Trump administration’s claim that it is saving billions of dollars through DOGE-related cuts to federal contracts is drastically exaggerated, according to a new POLITICO analysis of public data and federal spending records. Through July, DOGE said it has saved taxpayers $52.8 billion by canceling contracts, but of the $32.7 billion in actual claimed contract savings that POLITICO could verify, DOGE’s savings over that period were closer to $1.4 billion. Despite the administration’s claims, not a single one of those 1.4 billion dollars will lower the federal deficit unless Congress steps in. Instead, the money has been returned to agencies mandated by law to spend it. DOGE’s savings calculations are based on faulty math. The group uses the maximum spending possible under each contract as its baseline — meaning all money an agency could spend in future fiscal years. That amount can far exceed what the government has actually committed to pay out. Counting this “ceiling value” gives a false picture of savings for taxpayers. “That's the equivalent of basically taking out a credit card with a $20,000 credit limit, canceling it and then saying, ‘I've just saved $20,000,’” said Jessica Tillipman, associate dean for government procurement law studies at George Washington University Law School. “Anything that’s been said publicly about [DOGE’s] savings is meaningless.”

That storm in northern Carroll Co is just not moving.

A pic of my COC

The humidity to rain ratio has been approaching infinity here lately.

Here on the CT Shoreline there has been a much steeper increase in 90° days than JFK. We are currently in 2nd place on the all-time 90° day list at 15 days so far reaching 90° or higher. This heat combined with the 5th driest summer so far has turned most of grassy areas brown. Was glad to get a brief shower yesterday. Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Driest June 1st to August 14th Periods Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2000-08-14 2.64 62 2 1957-08-14 2.77 0 3 1966-08-14 3.42 0 4 2017-08-14 3.50 3 5 2022-08-14 4.12 0 6 2025-08-14 4.18 0 7 1949-08-14 4.27 0 8 2016-08-14 4.82 0 9 1970-08-14 5.05 0 10 1965-08-14 5.09 0

89/69/94 push push

Can confirm. I’ve made that drive more times than I can remember and invariably the car is plastered in bugs. another hot day. Dp 70.

Looks like you're in the same boat as us, but Newfoundland is still close.