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Late season 90 achieved at MSP. The record of 94 appears to be safe but still a couple hours of warming to go.

Sorry, had to do a screenshot or this site drives me nuts over the size. CFS 2m temp anomaly forecast for JFM.

You're the tree guy, what's the deal?

What are we looking at here? (there's no headers on this image -) anyway, this also reflects higher latitude blocking.

It's prevalent on the cape according to reports. Been there since August.

Pouring in the lowlands. Nothing new here. I'm guessing 1-2 over the next several days here in my area. Hopefully this thing moves along and doesn't sit for days.

I waswn't talking about leaf-edge browning, I was talking about trees being half-dead and half green. May still be cicadas, I guess. Could just be dead stuff from last year. I'll take pictures tomorrow when I'm in SRI, they probably have same issue. It's only those short bushy oaks you see near the coast, I don't see it around here or anywhere inland with the larger ones.

Long range 12z GEFS at 384 has a pretty strong ridge setting up for the first few days of October NAO is also turning negative this September after being positive every month since last January.. this same thing happened last year, where the +AO/+NAO that was present all Summer long broke in September.

So far, rainfall is running above the guidance in a number of locations through 18z.

For the E MDR lemon from the 2PM TWO: 2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave just offshore of the west coast of Africa is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible towards the latter part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

More 12Z runs: The models have switched in some cases. The GFS/CMC moved W to just SE of Bermuda whereas the Euro moved E to well E of Bermuda. Icon: still well to the SW of others with it much weaker SSW of Bermuda then recurving NWJMA: TS at Bermuda at 192

Definitely looks like at least some of it will reach you in the next 30 minutes or so. We've already had 2 nice bouts of rain down here at work.

Track of storm looks like it takes it inland a little north of VA beach, which will not be far enough North for us in the NW zones, at least for today. Looking at the radar loop, HRRR looks like it might verify, keeping any steady rain south of DC through 7am. WB 17Z HRRR through 7am Wed.

74, overcast with a nice cool breeze.

Will that slug of rain die before it reaches HBG? Or will it be pouring when I have to load the car to head to IAD, ha.

Here is the Iowa snowstorm. Must have been a wicked bomb cyclone. Look at the track of that low pressure center. Chicago --> La Crosse, Wisconsin, before drifting southwest into Iowa.

Hopefully around .25" falls, but could end up closer to .10"

That must have been quite the bomb cyclone. Wicked loop there with the low pressure center passing from Chicago to La Crosse, Wisconsin, and then drifting southwest into Iowa.

Same leaf-edge browning here, especially on ash. If it's cicadas, it's a variety that makes no noise. We're actually seeing some non-swamp colors earlier than usual, due to 5 straight mornings in the 30s and/or drought.

Light rain has started in mclean

That looks reasonable for up in my area. I'm thinking along the lines of .10 - .20" at most up this way.

It was a LOT colder back then though, so Africa was probably pretty temperate, especially at elevation. Well, for most of that time... per AI, it sounds like homo sapiens first evolved around 300,000 years ago, so they would have been around for a couple of glacial cycles and lived through the somewhat warmer Eemian interglacial. Of course, more importantly, the population was tiny compared to today.

I appreciate the posting of the UK model because like you stated it is often overlooked.

One of the worst forecast busts you’ll see. Parts of CNC got put under a FFW for up to 5-8” of rain in isolated spots and they won’t even see a drop! Here we went from 1”+ and 80% chance of rain all day to mostly cloudy I didn’t publicly call this but I said to my wife last night when we were talking about plans today if it was going to rain but I said it seemed the low was much further east than models were initializing so I wondered if we would get less rain all day. Did not think it would be this dry across the entire area though!