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wth is this. @OceanStWx

We'll see. Yesterday afternoon looked great on paper with LWX highlighting Calvert and St. Mary's for heavy rain potential, and I got a quarter inch. My area has a departure of -8 inches for the year and would need rainfall of 150% to 200% of normal for four straight months to recover.

LOL, I think everybody would be happy if it just EXPANDED 75-100 miles to the south. A good 2-3" soaker would do a lot of good for most of us.

Forecasts have leveled out and holding steady now at +3-+3.5

Low of 52.8 here this am with a nice 5 mph N/NW breeze. Refreshing! Low of 34 at Canaan NWR.

48.6 felt kind of chilly this morning. Interesting observation: For Augusta, the qp received yesterday was less than half of most expectations from 12 and 18z Monday.

The post above from Chris and the one below from Adam are in conflict with Chris’ suggesting more Nina-like (-AAM) and Adam’s stating +GLAAM off the charts! Why are these 2 saying opposites about upcoming AAM?

That needs to shift south by about a hundred miles

Brief mild up.

Models begin to build 90° heat to our west as we move into early July. Some models hold onto low pressure just to the east of New England. So they are currently split on whether the 90s make it here or stay to our south.

Just over 2” of much needed rain from yesterday.

What a furnace next week

Yesterday's rainfall resulted in about a 1 inch rise in Falls Lake water levels. I am guessing it will start dropping again over the next few days.

Strongest Southern Hemisphere +AAO since May 2023 as their winter gets underway. The SAM index reached a strongly positive value of +4.23 on June 21, which is a three-year high. That means that mean sea level pressure is currently trending higher than normal near Australia's latitudes, and the westerly wind belt that flows between Australia and Antarctica is located further south than usual for this time of year. This has been evident in the sort of weather we’ve seen lately across southeastern Australia, with fewer cold fronts, frequent blocking high pressure systems, and unseasonably warm temperatures. The last time the SAM index reached 4 (or higher) was in May 2023, when it peaked at 5.5. The values in the index are a measure of standard deviation from the norm in terms of mean sea level pressure. In very basic terms, it means we’ve seen a lot more highs than lows.

57.7F in Lanco with 0.30” of much needed rain. .

WB 6Z EURO has heavy rain moving through on Saturday.

It looks like a front will be stalling over our area late Friday afternoon and low pressure in the Midwest moves along the front and into the area. It looks like a slow mover. It could be a long duration, beneficial rain event. Let's talk about it here.

Low of 57 and .31” of rainfall. Amazing day ahead. I love where we live.

This is the same twin cyclone progression that lead to the massive WWB/westerlies and DWKW back in April. The SOI has also tanked again. Constructive interference from the MJO, ERW boost, SSTs and subsurface soaring, a Nino standing wave/-OLR has formed, +GLAAM off the charts, budding +IOD….the perfect storm. This El Niño is going to go off the rails strengthening next month, would not surprise me if it goes super in August….

Anyone notice the absence of wildfire smoke from Canada from season? I wonder what the difference is this year. More rain?

Good morning folks please place July forecasts below when you get the chance with the typical deadline of July 1st by 6z. I will be away for vacation from the 28th to the 5th of July so Ill do my best to compile all the values when I get back then. Ill try to do a quick update before I leave of what the results of June will look like around Friday (26th) since there shouldn't be major changes that occur.

I frequently drive to Richmond and noticed the same thing. We've done fairly well in this overall pattern - certainly a change from the past 2 summers (at least so far) which were bone dry. Beautiful, crisp morning today with a low of 47 (34 at CNWR). Hope to get some more rain this weekend before we rev up next week.

Andrea Michaels FOX43 · Follow ntoepdsSroti702t1910fuimh5t84umi3it95c07i2hltg1871ttag70tl7u · PA is leading neighboring states in tornadoes Not exactly where we want to be leading the pack, but so far, we’ve have 20 confirmed tornadoes in 2026. All 20 of those were this month (June), with more than a dozen of these happening two Sundays ago with the severe weather outbreak on the 14th. Most of these tornadoes have occurred along the western half of the state, but you’ll recall one of them was confirmed in Lancaster County last week. I’d also like to include that these numbers came from the SPC’s records. There were a few tornado warnings yesterday, so it’s possible that this number changes slightly in the days to come if any storm surveys are performed. I made this graphic and scheduled it earlier in the day, so I think that disclaimer is important, but it still doesn’t change where we stand.