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You can already tell it’s worse. Classic

I may have asked before, but I don’t think I ever got a concrete response. Whats the return rate on a 16 year stretch without a white Christmas here? We did not have a white Christmas here in 2017, close by may have, but we did not.

Only at 42h and it’s the NAM, but it doesn’t look like 18z is going to help us.

I think it is a really amplified pattern. That is Arctic air under that ridge...1054 hp sliding down the Plains. Deceptive look for sure. Cold air is traveling close to the surface...coldest air of the season under that ridge.

That's awesome. I cleaned up my verbiage because I do like MoCo lol (I grew up there and lived there for most of my life), but yea the traffic/COL is legit. Even the construction in Frederick is wild. When I first moved here I was concerned there wouldn't be enough to do, but now I'm like this is absurd...there's neighborhoods going up all around the NW side of Detrick and the only real plan I see is to widen Rt 15 which will take years to complete once they start (if they start). I've only driven past Roanoke, but it looked cool...nice little town nestled in the mountains. Rough life lol. Snow is fun, but you can always chase it (though you certainly don't need to this month with that Colorado lifestyle in progress).

It seems it would only take a little adjustment in that upcoming pattern for it to actually be interesting around here. A little less western trough and a little less SE ridge would make it interesting here. There will be a lot of cold just north and west of here and probably ample gulf moisture heading up this way too.

too real^

Very much like life in Hanover, PA, but without the loss of many conveniences. But I'm comparing it to life in northern Anne Arundel County, MD, so that obviously has an effect on my point of view. Plus, except for OBX, I have no real love for the water, and that's a big draw for northern AA County peeps.

Avoiding Pacific flood of boring impossible post 2020. Hopefully doesn’t last an entire month this time.

NG is down another 8% today and is now down a whopping 23% vs the high of one week ago! Here’s the ugly wx reason though it’s great news for future energy bills for the time being (actually NG marketers have lots of storage to draw from and thus the retail prices don’t vary nearly as sharply as one might think; also there are state price utility commission controls in some states): look on the left and that steep dive in EPS HDDs that flatline way below normal near 15/day for the purple 0Z run (today’s 12Z run wasn’t out yet on this…I think it came back slightly then to 16ish/day): @Stormchaserchuck1

Long range HRRR but man does it look good.

today is better than some of our high wind warning days.. rip after rip

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO I'm going to miss Tequila Barry Send him my best

Latest Srefs snowfall fwiw. Seems reasonable for the Srefs.

I’m not saying that it will happen, but there is a way for the weekend clipper to end up north, even with the current clipper ending up well south.

I was wondering if there would be upgrades to warnings in the OV for tonight. Surprised there aren't more warnings. I could see a narrow but elongated strip of 6-8". Going to be some surprised peeps there in the morning.

With all the northern tier talk, thought I would drop a message. I’m in tioga county, and it has been a very nice start to winter up here, especially the last two days. It snowed all day yesterday, and have had some nice squalls coming through all day today(a very heavy one about an hour ago), loving the snow and cold so far to start winter! Hope the LSV cashes in before any warm up!

Hopefully it wasn't damaged

This is wildly off topic but good to hear. My wife and I talk about moving somewhere more rural when the kids are older, and getting out of the silver spring rat race. I don't know where you lived in Rockville, but how do you feel about all the driving you have to do in a rural area? The biggest thing we like about where we live is we can walk to schools with the kids, and walk to a lot of daily errands like the post office, grocery, library, health and personal appointments, etc. I really don't drive much. I think I would get over the driving because I grew up in a place like that, but my wife didn't. Anyway, off topic but I hope you get a lot of snow and it sounds like the trade-offs were worth it to GTFO from the DMV inner suburbs.

The last 5 years have been pretty bad so there’s some recency bias…the historic pattern of up and down Decembers looks like Mt Mansfield in comparison.

in the land of beggars can't be choosers ill take another 1in here in whitehall

We just lost our coating after that rain.

That model has been horrific lately…but whatever.

You made a wise choice to enhance the quality of your life.

So with all that said…December is as we all thought, sometimes they suck for snow, sometimes they are good. Kevin’s ideas on December are from a skewed view.