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Unfortunately, this map from the WPC says it all.

From your post to their ears. If you are ever betting on dates for early snow, 12/5 is always the sweet spot on the roulette wheel.

Models have trended warmer overnight.

After that, do you think the winter returns, or are we going to torch in January and February, like in 2016-17 and 2022-23?

Cold morning here. 22 degrees.

So far since November, we’ve seen -WPO (Aleutian ridge regime) driven cold. This is in contrast to the -EPO (Alaskan ridge regime) driven cold we saw last winter….. @SnowGoose69 @donsutherland1 @bluewave

Not a horrible GFS run

Snowing nicely under an Ontario LES band. Arctic front is shaping up behind it. I still think we see some flakes in SNE later, though the signal looks meh verbatim on the guidance. Arctic hounds to arrive later today with falling temps and gusts to 20-30. Radiators mount up later tonight. We’ll see how low we can go…might even get single digits back in CT tonight.

No one, including myself is complaining about a solid advisory level event on the second day of meteorological winter to kick off the season. We’ll still have our chances this season to break the streak, hopefully.

Looking ahead because I’m pissed I’m getting screwed tomorrow. Late next week definitely has some things going for it with a -NAO and 50/50 combo. Also a flat ish +PNA. If we can get that PNA to spike and get the shortwave coming out of the northern stream to dive below us, we could get something going. 0z euro and 6z gfs both develop a weak coastal storm in this window but move it away from us really quick.

Still need to watch the 11th-ish.

Gfs is drunk Sunday night. Nothing really shows that.

Starting the day at 36 in Wolf. Sent from my Pixel 10 Pro using Tapatalk

6z GFS trying for something Monday and Thursday

At least you have a chance, think this one will miss me

WB 0Z AI EPS.... the NW screw zone remains even on the snowiest model.

Thats why Ninas blow 95% of the time. You get early cold and chances with shortwaves racing thru the flow, but getting something to produce is a real challenge. Usually dry, suppressed, or sheared out. Then we end up losing the cold (usually) toward the holidays when the storm chances actually increase. Patience won't help us.

That Ryan Leonard goal was sick

Damn. Not what I wanted to wake up to.

23.5 this AM. But not to worry, I will be plenty warm enough for rain later on. But not too much rain, lol. Maybe, a tenth of an inch. Maybe. Good luck to you higher elevation guys! I'm always hoping that at least someone in our area gets some snow.

Hug the WB 6Z 12K NAM. What could possibly go wrong?!

26° enjoying the warmth while I can.

Finally got some flakes flying at 4am here in Fayetteville.

Ashe-Alleghany NC-Watauga-Tazewell-Smyth-Grayson- Including the cities of Independence, Boone, Whitetop, Volney, West Jefferson, Tazewell, Troutdale, Marion, and Sparta 326 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Portions of the northwest North Carolina High Country and southwest Virginia from Mount Rogers to Tazewell. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions are expected to impact the Friday morning commute.

Madison-Haywood-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Southern Jackson- Transylvania- Including the cities of Cashiers and Faust 105 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST FRIDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected above 3500 feet. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one half of an inch and ice accumulations around two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Elevations above 3500ft in Jackson, Haywood, Transylvania, Buncombe, and Madison Counties. * WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Snow and ice accumulations will make many roads treacherous and impassable. The weight of the snow and ice on tree limbs and power lines could produce isolated outages. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning commute.