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No Nina’s are not a winter killer even south of New England

Erin is crawling right now. With its large circulation, upwelling is starting to become a real issue for it. Additionally, Erin is really helping to bring down SSTs east of the Bahamas. This should help keep anything down the road that traverses that region in check until SSTs can rebound somewhat in late August and early September.

Invest 99LAs of 06:00 UTC Aug 19, 2025: Location: 12.5°N 20.1°WMaximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/AMinimum Central Pressure: 1010 mbEnvironmental Pressure: N/ARadius of Circulation: N/ARadius of Maximum wind: 30 nm oi lads reckon this might nick the name Fernand first or would this more likely be gabs

Why TF did the lemon nick 99L off the orange?

This thread’s E MDR AOI (the current lemon, not the further west orange) is now Invest 99L:AL, 99, 2025081906, , BEST, 0, 125N, 201W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, SPAWNINVEST, al792025 to al992025,

My ideal would be snow and cold for one season - then the rest of the year with temps like today, plenty of sun and just enough rain to not drought.

Watching all the rain explode into nothing from the dry air after crossing the lake makes me sad, our farmers need it

Gfs is now offshore at 0z

Latest UKMET (0Z) still pretty weak and a little west of 12Z though still not far W of Bermuda: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 20.6N 64.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 23.08.2025 108 21.3N 65.7W 1010 28 0000UTC 24.08.2025 120 22.9N 67.2W 1011 30 1200UTC 24.08.2025 132 24.5N 68.2W 1011 35 0000UTC 25.08.2025 144 26.9N 68.9W 1011 35 1200UTC 25.08.2025 156 29.9N 68.4W 1012 35 0000UTC 26.08.2025 168 33.3N 67.2W 1011 31

Yes. The ops are just fantasy but the ensembles show a pattern that could be conducive. Everything is always low probability for here so there’s no need for folks to get riled up.

^It seems the Euro ensembles are good at those long range forecasted hurricane numbers. I remember in the 2nd half of last season they had 5x average, and we sure did have an active period.

11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 Location: 24.4°N 71.7°W Moving: NW at 8 mph Min pressure: 949 mb Max sustained: 125 mph

Just wanted to share this with you guys since the weather hasn't been all that active here except for the occasional storm. We do have a nasty hurricane out in the Atlantic, but it's going to mostly be a fish, with some wind impact on the east coast, but nothing here. Anyway, being the weather nerd that I've always been, even as a kid, I had a watch as a kid that had a thermometer in it. It was a Casio watch from the 80s. I loved that watch. I felt like I had a little weather station on my wrist. It was way ahead of it's time back then. Well, I found this baby on Ebay in great shape and for a pretty reasonable price. Works great. I feel like a kid again. Lol OK, back to weather talk. Lol Sent from my SM-S931U using Tapatalk

High of 95 before the storms moved in. Only managed to pick up .05" but it did cool off nicely thanks to the outflows.

Nam has very little

it also shows 40 mph gusts thursday

We still have not hit 90 yet this month IMBY. 88.7 yesterday and 88.2 today. Absolutely incredible

To add to the above post: Of the 22 listed years, including the three 2025 is projected to be just ahead of as of August 23rd, only 2007 ended up with a BN total season ACE (averages based on their era). Of the other 21, all ended up the season well AN (based on their era’s average).

Didn’t we just get a lesson in weenie range from Erin. Don’t even look at ops till inside 120 hours

Who's worried about heat stroke? But looks like it could be mid-80s standard summer vibe.

Ain't your week. Tick bites and cool weather. Best stay inside and drink.

18z euro cooled off some by Erin hanging around more. Let’s toss that.

Here Is the 18Z. Lower '80s

Man Erin a little closer is cooling off Saturday now. Disaster. Big change from 00z.

Ditto. Plus 0.10" rain. About 1.8" for the month so far.