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Go for it.

So impressive! The 18z HRRR has a 3-5% chance of lightning (throughout the entire atmosphere) for Providence from 12am-3am on Monday.

lol

It is back, better than 12z, by 0z it might be back to a banger.

Shot hoops earlier and was schvitzing a bit after only a few minutes. I can sense a snowstorm is on its way.

GFS pretty steadfast at 18z...excellent to see.

GFS is an absolute beatdown out here. Every single model has us getting the inverted trough goods now. Looks amazing.

Not going to get dry snow with temps in mid 30s

Fan of it?

It is stronger than the 12Z

I'm an early bird and checked in here this morning around 3 am and saw there had been 73 messages posted since last night.

Euro has a march 2-3 two-part winter storm

GFS not backing down. Pretty much the same as 12z

Even if it is the (Mt. Holly) 10% probabilistic map, seeing totals near the big 3-0 around the Philly area is pretty staggering.

Feb 2013 (nemo) for suffolk county. Had 30 inches and constant thundersnow. I compare all storms to that one out here. More intense then 96 for me.

Swoon

Wow. What a headache for @MillvilleWx

NAM FGEN Sunday night. Damn!

sorry, i meant 12z

BWC?

a lot of the big ones are prefaced like this. Beautiful day here in DC - mid 50s, sunny.

Completely agreed here. I mentioned this either last night or the night before, when the ensemble means were down to 522 dm at 84 to 90 hours lead! Historic events are typically not seen in the mid range. More often than not - though yes there are rare exceptions - your plotting a major with very impressive parametrics, and then it goes out of control almost during now cast and bests even the outlooks. 1993 and 'Sandy' are examples of notable exceptions. This one has been suggesting history for since about 48 hours ago, when it was just one or two outliers going bonkers. Now it seems there are less conservative model visions than going the other way. So I dunno. going to be an interesting event

ICON is a decent 4-8" for the region. I mean, its wrong but any other time we would be thrilled!

Not quite sure why GYX has put a watch up—maybe just to make me feel better

SPC AC 211725 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z Across the Carolinas, mid Atlantic and southern New England coasts, intense surface cyclogenesis will support very strong low-level warm advection. The strong ascent may result in enough elevated instability (100-200 J/kg) and intense precipitation rates to support a few lightning strikes within the warm conveyor belt of the Nor'easter as the low lifts northward along the coast Sunday night into early Monday.