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The best city in the country. The heart of America and the home of the Birds

Well, regardless of the semtnics of the MJO criteria, we agree on that general point.

So low for NYC but more for LI ? Weird

Yep Epo and pna are king

I posted these ideas in other subforums ... I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England. and would add more specific to this region, one or two blizzards likely on tracks from Nebraska to n MO to s IN-OH, frequent strong lake effect downwind of L Michigan and L Huron, very large temperature oscillations likely as Pacific mild and arctic cold air masses alternate in a fast flow with frequent alternations but one or two spells of deep cold centered on the Midwest region. Yours may be the "it" sub-forum for winter 2025-26. Could be similar to that recent winter when MLI, MSP set snowfall records? was that 2020-21? I recall it from snowfall contests we used to have in this subforum.

Looks like I’ll finally fall below 32. Probably comes with some type of snow or squall event

Thursday thru noon . Basically 50-65 mph from say 2:00 AM- noon

Better let the Pope know…he’s thinking Torch. Maybe he was meaning a hand held torch that he carries in the basement catacombs of the Vatican..?

I recently posted this in the New England subforum and it would apply to NYC subforum as well ... I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England. Will add for NYC, my prediction is 18-23 inches for NYC, 15-20 for JFK, 23-28 for EWR, 30-40 s CT and parts of LI. A more average sort of winter by modern standards at least. I think the big weather stories will be in the Midwest with huge temperature swings and some powerful lake effect storms at times. Probably one decent coastal snowstorm somewhere like mid to late January into early February.

Well the 18z GFS isn't close to any snow. You guys made me look.

I could see this being a highly variable winter with some potent cold shots, flow generally about 260 to 290 deg most of the time, so lake effect quite powerful at times, probably the sort of pattern that could relax to allow coastals once or twice. In the mix would be some +7 to +12 F spells of mild Pacific sourced air masses, even super-cold patterns like 1917-18 and 1933-34 had some milder spells (in fact Jan 1934 was much milder than both Dec 1933 and Feb 1934). So a warmer climate version of those kinds of winters, possibly 1970-71 or 1983-84 could be similar? Not as mild as recent winters and not an all-time cold although one spell could produce a few record cold days. Snow would be lucky to get to near normal but seems unlikely to fall below 50% of normal in northeast coastal regions, probably a bit above normal interior New England.

Yeah. Some legit stuff on models

I know CAPE is seeing #09 and thinking to himself..."it's in the bag weenies."

I am going weaker on the PNA than last winter. But there could still be +PNA intervals. Very strong warmth and 500mb ridging in Canada since May 2023.

Are You really serious????

Nice cold shot coming up Lows

New England looks like a fun spot to be in December if that's correct. Storm track could be an issue for us southern folks but it's a long ways out yet

No, i just went on to the site and submitted the application

Nice seeing so many people get after it this weekend. Nice and snowy up high. We got after it in a different way on some of our favorite enduro trails across the river from Berkshire East ski area. .

Do you report to the program?

EPS snowfall panels.... 24 out of 50 (48%) give some part of the forum at least flurries thru November 14 (I count "some part of the forum" as flurries in at least one of the airports of RIC, BWI, IAD, and DCA). Maybe this thing does have a chance!

I need to move back to the DC Metropolitan Region. Ever since I left in 2018 things have gone to hell worse than the post-Snyder Redskins franchise.

Looks like first real cold shot comes arounf 11/11.

IDK, seems kind of arbitrary to me, dude....pretty close to last year's 2.762. Furthermore, phase 4 is also in the MC. You do you, but I would be loathe to forecast a strong RNA in the mean. Again, agree weaker than last year's deviation, which isn't saying much.